Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
1:35 PM EST. Just when 2015 gave Brett Anderson a glimmer of hope, he went under the knife again, reminding us the one constant here is his lack-of-health grade. However, Anderson’s long history of an xERA in the mid-3s tells us he can have value in doses. What we also like about Anderson is this matchup because the Orioles have trouble with junk pitchers that induce swings out of the strike zone. The O’s lineup has never seen a pitch they didn’t like so facing this free swinging group may be perfect for Anderson to thrive in. That’s just the skinny on Brett Anderson because this bet has more to do with fading Chris Tillman that backing Anderson.
In 80 frames this season, Tillman has walked 44 and struck out 56. That's an absurd ratio. He has a 1.95 WHIP, a 7.36 ERA and MLB’s worst xERA of 7.63 among qualified starters. Chris Tillman has come close to pitching with two men on base every single inning he’s pitched this year. Tillman should be a 2-1 pooch every time he takes the hill because it doesn’t get much worse than him. He was recently moved to the ‘pen on August 5 after going 1-7 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.04 WHIP over 15 straight starts but to our delight, he’s back in the rotation. Baltimore is in the Wildcard race and it is even within striking distance in the AL East so it’s surprising that Tillman is still in the rotation. However, The O’s are paying this stiff 10.5M this season so they’ll send him back out there rather than pay him $400,000 every two weeks to count heads. If his contract wasn’t so high, he wouldn’t be near the mound in a pennant race, as any minor leaguer could match his numbers on their worst day. Tillman as the chalk must be faded, period.
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Toronto +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)