Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:40 AM EST
7:05 PM EST. Eduardo Rodriguez was whacked in his last start. In fact, he’s 0-1 in his last three starts with a 6.11 ERA and now the market is selling him because of it. We’re buying because those surface stats tell a fraction of the story. Truth be told, Rodriguez has been outstanding with a BB/K split of 8/30 over his past 30 innings. Those poor surface stats recently are the direct result of two luck-driven factors, a low 61% strand rate and a high .334 BABIP. Rodriguez is dealing it with a 14% swing and miss rate and a 53%/16% groundball/line-drive split over his last three games. All told, Rodriguez gives up less than a hit per inning, he has an elite overall BB/K split of 38/114 over 105 frames and he’s a much better option taking back a price than C.C. Sabathia is spotting one.
Sabathia draws the opener in New York’s key four-game series with the Red Sox and while Sabathia has enjoyed a renaissance of sorts (10-5 – 3.82 ERA), there is nothing in his skill set suggesting he’s improved that much. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split over his last 10 games is 47%/28%/25%. Notice the 28% line-drive rate. That’s extremely high. His swing and miss rate is low at 8%. His BB/K split of 40/90 over 115 innings is mediocre at best. Follow Sabathia’s trend in just about any skill area xERA, control, command, first-pitch strike rate, swinging strikes or batted ball profile and there’s reason to worry. No matter how you break it down, C.C. is the second best starter in this matchup and it sure doesn’t hurt Boston’s chances that the Yanks were on the wrong end of a DH sweep yesterday against the Indians while the Red Sox were heating up in Toronto.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
Boston +124 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.48)