Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:40 PM EST
1:05 PM EST. This is Game 1 of a DH with Trevor Bauer opposing Jamie Garcia and there is no reason that New York should be favored but they’re wearing Pinstripes so they are. We now find a very favorable pitching matchup in Cleveland’s favor and we’ll play it accordingly.
Trevor Bauer has been the poster child for inconsistency during his career. Such has been the case again in 2017, at least on the surface with a 13-8 record and a pedestrian 4.59 ERA. However, Bauer has been absolutely killing it lately with 40 K’s and eight walks issued over his last 33 innings. He has a 3.22 xERA since the All-Star break and has been one of MLB’s best starters since then. Bauer’s groundball rate (46%) is trending in the right direction too. Trevor Bauer is just 26 years old and it’s taken him more time to thrive than first anticipated. He was pegged as a can’t miss prospect. Some pitchers take longer than others to master their craft at this level. Bauer is close and he’s damn good.
Jaime Garcia might seem like a pitcher you would consider backing regardless of the lineup he is facing. Not so fast. Few starters in baseball own bigger lefty/righty skill splits than Garcia does. He owns a solid 3.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP against lefties, along with firmly elite skills (3.91 xERA). Both his stats (4.73 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) and skills (6.33 xERA) crumble against right-handers and that does not bode well for Garcia here. You see, the Indians are loaded with right-handed bats with Jay Bruce being the only left-handed bat in there today (if he plays). That makes this choice an easy one and a good one.
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Cleveland +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)