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Washington @ HOUSTON
Washington +149 over HOUSTON

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +149 Bet365 +145 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +146

Posted at 12:40 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Edwin Jackson came into this season as a well-travelled journeyman/innings-eater for non-contending rotations that had been savaged by injuries and needed 2nd half help. The Nationals were not a non-contender but they were in desperate need for starting rotation help and went off the grid to find Jackson. Edwin Jackson may end up being the steal of the year. In six starts, he’s been outstanding with a 3.43/4.01 ERA/xERA split. Jackson is just 33-years-old and he’s throwing 94 MPH with fade. His swing and miss rate of 12% supports the 26 K’s he’s posted over his last 30 innings against just eight walks. His line-drive rate is also elite at just 14%. Edwin Jackson is perceived as this replacement level starter that his way past his prime but there is no denying that dude has found something. His underlying skills say it’s legit too.

Mike Fiers comes in with a 4.32 ERA to go along with 131 K’s in 133 innings but his underlying numbers say he’s more fluke than talent. His strand rate of 78% is well-above league average. That’s one luck area where regression is imminent. Fiers hasn't been able to maintain 2016's control gains, as his underlying first-pitch strike rate and Ball% remain stuck below league average. Fiers has walked 53 batters. Though Fiers has made positive changes this season—going to the changeup more often—his June/July/August run is mostly a fluke. His 5.46 xERA over the past three months isn't convinced that he’s better than before and neither are we. Houston may indeed win here but if we’re sticking to playing value, Washington must be played here because its chances of winning may be better.

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Our Pick

Washington +149 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.98)




Seattle +175 over N.Y. YANKEES
COLORADO -1 +129 over N.Y. Mets
Baltimore +250 over WASHINGTON
MILWAUKEE -1 +167 over St. Louis