Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
6:10 PM EST. The Rays have one victory over their last eight games, which occurred against Marco Estrada and the Blue Jays. The Rays own MLB’s worst offense since the All-Star break in terms of team batting average, slugging % and runs scored. Over their last eight games, the Rays have scored three runs or less seven times and they lost the opener of this series last night, 7-1. They’ll now face lefty Ariel Miranda.
Miranda’s stock is low because he’s had it rough with a 6.55 ERA over seven starts since the beginning of July. He also has an 8.22 ERA over his last three starts, which is one of the key criteria’s that this market focuses on because “Last 3 Starts” is posted everywhere. That works to our advantage because Miranda’s skills were actually intriguing over that sample with 9.8 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9 a 14% swing and miss rate and an elite 15% line-drive rate. Miranda has struck out 31 batters over his past 27 frames, which also bodes well here because the Rays have struck out more than any team in the AL and more than any team in the league not named Milwaukee. Miranda’s extremely unlucky 61% strand rate and 20% hr/f since the beginning of July is the only reason his ERA is so high. With an xERA over that span of 4.22, a big time ERA correction to the good is forthcoming and this is the perfect place for Miranda to start moving the needle in his direction.
Jake Odorizzi is another prime example of why we don’t buy surface stats and why they’re so misleading. Odorizzi brings his 4.30 ERA into this start but his skills are among the worst in MLB. Odorizzi has a weak BB/K split of 40/88 over 105 frames. His 30%/23%/47% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is repulsive. Over his last 10 innings over two starts since returning from the 10-day DL, Odorizzi has walked five batters and struck out six. In summarizing, Jake Odorizzi’s fly-ball % ticked up again. Jacks allowed remain persistent and damage inflicted by RHBs is on the upswing. This is a starter with an xERA of 6.18 that pitches half his games in a pitcher’s park. The Rays are favored here because the surface stats suggest they’re starting the superior pitcher but nothing could be further from the truth. The Mariners have every edge here including power, offense, starter and current form and it’s not even close. Wrong side favored.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
Seattle -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)