Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
8:40 PM EST. We’re ditching the Coors Field angle here because Matt Garza has been high on our fade list for three years and counting and we’re not about to get behind him at this park. We’re thrilled to fade him though. Garza has walked 12 batters over his past 19 innings. In his last start, he walked five and struck out two in five frames. His swinging strike rate since the beginning of August is 3% to go along with a WHIP of 1.78. He’ll now bring his 6.37 xERA into this minefield where most games are won by two or more runs. Garza’s actual 4.38 ERA is a complete mirage and we’re going to attack this one with confidence.
German Marquez has increased his strikeouts (9.2 K’s/9) with more swings and misses (12%) in the second half. Facing a Milwaukee lineup that swings and misses more often vs. RHP (25.7%) than any team in baseball only adds to Marquez's appeal here, In 113 innings, Marquez has an outstanding BB/K split of 37/107. xERA does not take park factors into consideration so when you look at Marquez’s 3.57 xERA in the second half, it is without question one of the best in the game. He has 31 K’s over his past 30 innings with a nifty 47% groundball rate. Cory Kluber and the Tribe are -1½ -121 in K.C against Ian Kennedy today while the Dodgers with Rich Hill starting are -1½ -115 in Detroit against Jordan Zimmerman. This pitching matchup at Coors Field however, is the biggest mismatch on the board and we’re being offered a bit of a tag. Pencil us in immediately for that.
Note: This is going to be our only play on the MLB card today. We see nothing stronger.
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COLORADO -1½ +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)