Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:10 PM EST.
7:10 PM EST. Lots to like about the Marlins here. First, they’re coming off a three-game sweep over the Rocks and have now won five straight at home with the first two games of that streak being victories over the Nationals. Secondly, the Giants are coming off a long, drawn out weekend series against the Nationals in which they had to endure an extremely long rain delay on Saturday (five hours) before the game was finally cancelled. To make up for it, the Giants played a long double header on Sunday that started at 1:30 PM and ended roughly nine hours later. They’ll now travel to play a lesser team in a ¾ empty stadium and it would not surprise us one bit if their focus was off. Furthermore, the Giants will face a lefty here in Adam Conley and they own the third worst OPS in the majors against southpaws.
San Francisco will send out Ty Blach here. He's posted a 2.98 ERA over his last seven starts, while lasting at least six innings in each one but it’s all a mirage. Blach is striking out less than a batter every other inning, and his swing and miss rate (6%) is extremely low. Even during his aforementioned hot stretch, his K-rate was subpar. Blach does do a great job of keeping the walks to a minimum, as he has walked more than two batters just twice in 19 starts. An above average Zone% and first-pitch strike rate suggest he'll remain strong in that area of his game. However, now that he’s become more familiar, the opposition will go up there swinging, knowing that he’s going to be around the plate with weak stuff. His ground ball rate is league average but he's benefited from making 12 of his 19 starts at AT&T Park, which reduces home runs more than any other park in the majors. Blach has been putting up some strong numbers lately thanks to a combination of stellar control. great fortune and the extreme pitchers' park he calls home. His complete lack of swing and miss stuff keeps his ceiling very low, though, and leaves his margin for error razor thin. Blach’s success cannot last over an extended period of time because he’s simply been one of MLB’s luckiest starters and so we'll continue to fade hm.
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MIAMI -1½ +148 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.96)