PGA Wagers
Safeway Open

BEST LINES: Pinnacle  SportsInteraction  5DIMES Coolbet

Posted Wednesday, September 9. 

Cutoff time for this event is July 23 at 10:00 AM EST. 

Streaming Subscribers: Watch on Sky Sports Golf Channel in the Sky Sports Group beginning at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday and every day thereafter.

-------------------------------------------------------

The Safeway Open Preview

Strap yourself in because the 2020-21 PGA TOUR campaign is set to be a ‘super’ one. They’ve given the name ‘Super Season’ to describe the term due to the huge number of events that will be played – the campaign will feature the most tournaments in a single season since 1975, so opportunity knocks for all who have a tour card at their disposal. It will contain SIX majors, all being well, with the rescheduled Masters and U.S. Open, plus the Olympic Games and the Ryder Cup. This is the curtain-raiser of the new campaign – the Safeway Open – so the pros will head out to Napa Valley with Si Woo Kim being the odds on favorite, which is why this is such a great event to wager on. This event has that ‘alternate’ feel to it. 

The Safeway Open 2020 Field

Originally in the Safeway Open field, there were some hardy souls braving the 2,500 mile trip from Atlanta, Georgia at the conclusion of the TOUR Championship on Monday in order to get to Napa and get some prep in by Thursday. However, the updated field released on Friday saw all of those names withdrawn to leave a pretty sorry looking field in its place. Headline honors go to Sergio Garcia and Jordan Spieth (yep, it’s that kind of week), with reigning British Open champion Shane Lowry and former Masters winner Charl Schwartzel also teeing it up. Phil Mickelson is 20-1, which is another good indication of just how wide open this week’s event is. There will be some bombs on the leaderboard come Sunday! 

Course Preview

There is a perception that the early season events are something of a jolly on friendly golf courses, but the North Course at Silverado goes at least some way to dispelling that myth. The fairways are narrow at this Par 72 layout, and last year we saw the average Greens in Regulation (GIR) stats outnumber Driving Accuracy by a considerable margin, which proves that a) the rough isn’t too demanding here and b) the greens are nice and receptive. Indeed, these Poa Annua greens have a habit of running pretty slowly, and so even the most fearful of putters will fancy their chances of making a few this week.

There are hazards at large with some deep bunkers on the real estate and the presence of the odd water hazard here, so Silverado is not an establishment where you can just close your eyes on the tee and swing for the hills. The routing of this 7,166 yard layout also offers plenty of chances for players who are in the mix heading down the closing stretch. Get the Par 3 15th out of the way and the last three holes are dream-like for long, straight hitters – two Par 5s which can be attacked in two and then the 375-yard Par 4 1th. If you can send a drive 320 yards in the general direction of the green a birdie is almost a formality.

What We’re Looking For:

Even those at the head of the field are inconsistent in form or lacking in competitive action, and so a deep dive is required to pick out any morsels of value. As for the player profile we’re looking for this week, it is kinda interesting looking back at the most recent winners at Silverado. Cameron Champ – you know about him already, but then there’s the power hitting of Kevin Tway, the tee-to-green class of Brendan Steele and the iron game magnificence (and putting game impotence) of Emiliano Grillo. In short….there’s not a lot that they share in common.

There is a theme of Total Driving to work with though. Champ, Steele and Grillo are all typically excellent off the tee, and clearly the more fairways you hit at Silverado the better – short irons into these slow greens can yield some fantastic results. But, that said, all players will miss the short stuff – those who scramble and recover best will be the least inconvenienced.

There is an age-old debate as to whether slow greens help or hinders poor putters, and while there’s no absolute evidence either way, we’ll perhaps side with the former option – Grillo is a former winner here, after all. We know that some players enjoy life on the west coast, feel at home on Poa Annua….and those guys – particularly those who haven’t featured in the TOUR Championship – will be at the heart of choices this week.

-------------------------------------------------------

To Win Outright: These are played at BET365 because of their cashout option.

Adam Schenk 80-1

There are a number of players on the PGA TOUR who haven’t made the most of their outstanding talents (so far), and Adam Schenk is right up there in that category. Just five top-25s last season – without a single top-10 is a curiosity for a player blessed with excellent technique and who comfortably ranks inside the top-50 on Tour for Total Driving and Greens in Regulation; two basic, but important, metrics. Schenk’s primary weakness is chipping, but if the greens are running nice and slow, he hopefully won’t have to dig his wedges out of the bag too often and can instead rely on smooth short irons instead. A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, it’s high time that Schenk made the step up with a substantial performance on the PGA TOUR as well. Dude ranks 13th ON TOUR in Total Driving – 28th in Scrambling from the Rough and 46th in Greens in Regulation (Risking 0.2 units to win 16).  

Wesley Bryan 110-1

Bryan only made four starts last season but made the most of them, as he made all four cuts and his worst finish over the final three was a T31. He missed the cut at this event two years ago, but finished T55 here three years ago and there is obviously a fondness for this course. Dude chooses his events very carefully (Risking 0.2 units to win 22 units).  

Tom Hoge 100-1

An excellent iron player and scrambler, Tom Hoge delivered three top-10 finishes in the season just gone and that already puts him on a higher plain than most in the field this week. And the fact that two of those top-10s came on west coast soil only serves to increase the appetite for a wager on the 31-year-old this week. Hoge’s form since golf’s resumption hasn’t been the best, but there have been flashes – he opened with an outstanding round of 62 at the Wyndham Championship, and a return to California, where he was solo fifth in the Farmers Insurance Open and T6 in the Desert Classic, will appeal (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units). 

Zac Blair 200-1

Zac Blair misses a lot of cuts but that’s why he’s 200-1. At the end of the day, the risk is worth the reward. Blair likes West Coast golf. This past season he finished 18th at Pebble Beach and T21 at the Farmers Insurance. He played here last season and finished 4th. The year prior, he finished 30th so he’s 2/2 at this course with a nice ROI. Dude excels in the eagles, which is one area where he can really thrive here and he also ranks 64th ON TOUR in Driving Accuracy. When he gets aggressive and hits it right, it pays big dividends at this course. Clearly this is a bit of a gamble but aren’t all 200-1 shots? Blair is 30-years-old, he’s in his prime and clearly wanted to play in this event (Risking 0.2 units to win 40). 

----------------------------------------------------------

Head-to-head Matchups for the PGA Championship

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365, Coolbet or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

H2H

Brandon Steele +100 over Phil Mickelson (Bet365)

It’s been a while since Brendan Steele won back-to-back at Silverado but he’s still a solid enough campaigner, making the cut in 14/20 starts last season with three top-10s. Ironically, he really caught the eye in his last outing at the BMW Championship, where he ranked fifth for SG: Approach, and if he combines that iron play with his traditionally straight hitting off the tee, then chances will be created. When players return to a happy hunting ground they tend to putt better too – Steele’s achilles heel, and if the TOUR Championship participants do struggle this week, then he could be among the chief beneficiaries.

What’s interesting is that pretty much everyone will miss fairways at Silverado – finding 60% is a huge gain historically, and let’s be honest, Phil has been missing fairways all over the world for years. But it’s his powers of recovery that have enabled him to win countless titles, but those days are gone. Dude is 50 years old. He misses cuts almost as often as he misses fairways. He shoots double-bogeys at least once a day and usually twice. He missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance and he also missed the cut in his last PGA event, the Northern Trust. He’s playing in the U.S. Open next week so this is more of a tune-up than to be taken seriously, as he’s not going to burn himself out in the scorching heat just before the U.S. Open. The stats don’t support his ability to recover from way off the fairway anymore. Lefty favored over Steele is insane (Risking 2 units). 

Doc Redman -110 over Erik van Rooyen

Erik van Rooyen has never played this course. He’s mostly a European Tour player and when he does play on the main tour, it usually doesn’t go well. He missed six cuts in 12 events this past year on the main tour. He does not qualify to be in the rankings (lack of events) but if he did, they wouldn’t be pretty. His Driving Accuracy (55.67%), and Greens in Regulation (64%), two key elements here, are weak. Driving Accuracy means Fairways hit. EVR’s OWGR is 48 but we would argue that all day long, as there are 200 golfers on the MAIN TOUR better than him and now he’s evenly priced against Redman because of his OWGR. We have to try and take advantage

When you get behind an elite ball-striker, you’re only a hot putter away from an outstanding week. Doc Redman is reliable off the tee and an awesome iron striker, and our hope is that the grounds team at Silverado absolutely drench the greens to combat the scorching hot weather. If they do, Redman could enjoy something akin to a point-and-shot iron game shootout if the greens have no run in them at all, and at that point, Redman will become a serious contender. We’re discussing his chances to win this event. As far as beating EVR? Well, Doc ranks 13th ON TOUR in Driving Accuracy at 68.27% (compared to EVR’s 55%). He also ranks 12th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation, not to mention 11th in Total Driving and 46th in Scoring Average. There are some “line-setters” sportsbooks that have not released their head-to-head matchups this week (at the time of the writing) so the books that are not line-setters become vulnerable because they’re making their own matchups and prices. This is another one of those outstanding plays that offer tremendous value. EVR is a European Tour Player with little success on the Main Tour and Doc Redman is on the verge of stardom (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).   

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright.

Talor Gooch 70-1

With a strong bank of form on Poa Annua and with some impressive recent showings to his credit, Talor Gooch once again fulfills the role of the ideal sleeper pick. He delivered top-25 to his backers at the 3M Open, Wyndham Championship and Northern Trust, and while kicking on for top-10s and more has so far proven elusive, Gooch continues to outperform his salary and odds. There’s nothing flashy or showy about Gooch’s game, it’s just that he is reliable from tee-to-green and consistent enough with the flat stick. Sometimes, and especially at courses like Silverado, that alone can be enough to perform admirably.

Mark Hubbard 50-1

When you’re idly flicking through leaderboards, it’s amazing how often the name ‘Mark Hubbard’ pops up in the upper echelons of the standings. It’s particularly likely at tournaments where driving accuracy is a premium, because that’s where Hubbard thrives – he hits plenty of approaches from the short stuff. An excellent putter, Hubbard is another who. when he gets on a roll, he can put some low numbers together, and that should be enough at Silverado to trouble the top bit of the leaderboard once more.

Carlos Ortiz 70-1

Followers of the PGA TOUR may just recall the golden period in the Fall when Carlos Ortiz was a factor at the top of the leaderboard on three separate events. He really could and perhaps should have won at the Sanderson Farms Championship, losing his way on the Sunday while in contention, but followed up with excellent top-fives in the Mayakoba Classic and the Houston Open. Patchy form since has been a concern but something really clicked for the Mexican in tough conditions at the BMW Championship – his T25 there is worth plenty when compared to the rest in this field. A decent ball-striker capable of grinding out scores, Ortiz is certainly worth a second look in this company.

Cameron Tringale 45-1

We read a lot of previews every week from experts to get a feel of who they are touting. We see lots of pros in the 30-1 to 50-1 range being touted. For instance, guys like Joel Dahmen, Emiliano Grillo and Cameron Davis are being mentioned frequently. However, one dude we haven’t seen being mentioned anywhere is Cameron Tringale, despite his 45-1 price. The Californian has been trending nicely for a good couple of months now, and ahead of a return to home soil that is eye-catching indeed. That good form was consolidated with a T29 at the Northern Trust, and a T3 at the #M Open. Tringale is a really talented sort that has never really fulfilled his promise; 22 top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR is an indicator of what he is truly capable of. 

Results:
4 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -0.8 units

Brandon Steele +100 over Phil Mickelson = +2 units

Doc Redman -110 over Erik van Rooyen - +2 units

Therefore, 4 units in wins - 0.8 units in losses = a NET PROFIT of 3.2 units for this event

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

Get all the details here

-----------------------------------------------------

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

Safeway Open (Risking 5 units - To Win: 0.00)