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Posted Wednesday, August 19. 

Cutoff time for this event is July 23 at 7:00 AM EST. 

Streaming Subscribers: Watch on Sky Sports Golf Channel in the Sky Sports Group beginning at 6:30 AM EST on Thursday and every day thereafter.

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Introduction

Not many envisioned Jim Herman to win last week based upon his sportsbook odds of 500/1 (750/1 was available in places), and why would you have put your money to Herman’s name – in his prior 10 events, a best finish of T33 was compounded by seven missed cuts. Even more bizarre, Herman has just two top-25s to his name since 2018 – both of which are wins. Go figure. As well as a much-needed payday, Herman has also gate crashed the FedExCup party, rising from 192 in the standings to 54 in time for the first of the playoff events, this week’s The Northern Trust. The top-125 players in the rankings are heading to Norton, Massachusetts to tee up in The Northern Trust, and only the top-70 will remain and progress to the BMW Championship next week.

Northern Trust Course Preview

The Northern Trust has a rotational host course system, and in 2020 the honor will fall to TPC Boston. The traditional host of the Dell Technologies, TPC Boston didn’t feature on the Tour in 2019 but makes its return this week. Designed by Arnold Palmer and Ed Seay, the layout was given a refurb by Gil Hanse in 2007 and allegedly toughened, although winning scores of -15 to -22 suggest that ambition wasn’t exactly achieved.

This is a Par 71 stretch at 7,283 yards, with a trio of Par 5s that are all reachable in two and a couple of drivable Par 4s too – notably the 353 yard fourth. The parklands course features mostly straight or just off-straight holes, and while the majority are tree-lined, the fairways are generously proportioned, which helps to minimize the risk of approaches to the green being blocked out. The Bentgrass greens are of an average size and protected by a number of bunkers, and that is the course’s chief defense along with the five water hazards that patrol much of the real estate. Weather permitting, the greens will run at around 12 on the stimp.

What We’re Looking For 

You wonder how much prestige the players attach to the FedExCup when compared to, say, the majors, but even so, there are plenty of riches on offer and then there’s the prestige – individual sportsmen and women don’t enjoy under-performing. And so Justin Thomas will have something of a target on his back this week, and you can bet your bottom dollar that all in the field will be giving it their all.

Don’t forget matters at the other end of the standings too. Only the top-70 will head on to the BMW Championships, so the likes of Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and Matt Kuchar will be nervously eyeing those chasing them down around that bubble mark. The mission of Sepp Straka (71), Harold Varner III (73) and Bud Cauley (74) is to put in a big week and force their way into the next event.

As far as TPC Boston is concerned, there actually isn’t a huge amount to say. The wide open fairways suggest that bombers can thrive, and that is also backed up by the notion that the trio of Par 5s and a couple of the Par 4s hand a huge advantage to those capable of going 320-yards and more off the tee.

And yet you look at the roll-call at this course – Kuchar, Vijay Singh and Hunter Mahan have all won here, with the likes of Steve Stricker, Luke Donald and Chez Reavie having enjoyed success here. That suggests that shorter hitters cannot be discounted either. But with more players approaching out of the short stuff, there will be a premium placed on accurate approaches, so that combination of long, straight driving and short iron/wedge game could be key – as will confidence on the Bentgrass greens, which tend to run pretty pure here. It’s a free for all birdie fest so dig in. 

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To Win Outright: These are played at BET365 because of their cashout option.

Adam Scott 45-1

The Aussie is a player we generally have in mind for west coast golf, but having won The Masters and also the Barclays, it is clear that the former Orlando native can take care of business in the east too. Indeed, he has won at TPC Boston before in the Deutsche Bank Championship, and so comfort on these Bentgrass greens is clearly a huge edge for Scott no matter where they are located. Scott showed his class in the PGA Championship recently, finishing T22 despite months without any competitive action, and now with a bit more tuning to his game we’re expecting Scott to go well once again in comfortable surroundings (Risking 0.2 units to win 9). 

Doc Redman 150-1

A return to his home state of North Carolina proved to be just the ticket for Doc Redman, who banked one of the best pay days of his career with T3 at the Wyndham Championship. Assuming he doesn’t spend the next few days living the good life, Redman can go well once again at a course that really does suit his premium ball-striking capabilities. Ranking 6th on Tour for Total Driving and 13th for SG: Approach, Redman is actually performing to elite levels and all he needs now is an improvement on the greens – incidentally, he gained +0.49 strokes on the field with his putter at the Wyndham. Could the penny finally be dropping? Doc also ranks 12th ON TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee, 14th in SG: Approach and 41st in Scoring Average. At this price, he’s worth a bet (Risking 0.2 units to win 30). 

Denny McCarthy 350-1

There was a collective rubbing of the eyes as we learned that Denny McCarthy led the field in SG: Approach at the Wyndham last week. This is a guy who is comfortably one of the best putters on the planet, and so if he can add some tee-to-green chops to his game suddenly he becomes a very dangerous proposition indeed.

McCarthy is an absolute birdie machine when he gets on a roll, and if he can combine iron-and-putter magnificence, he will surely far outperform the standards expected of a 350-1 throwaway. Denny McCarthy ranks 1st ON TOUR in SG: Putting, 15th in Birdie Average and 39th in Approaches from 100-125 yards (Risking 0.1 units to 35 and also risking 0.1 units on EACH WAY to finish in the top 5).

Cameron Champ 90-1

There is a sense that ‘total driving’ could be a key asset this week at TPC Boston, and so it’s only right to have one of the very best in that regard in our thoughts. Champ will enjoy the extra room off the tee, and while his approach game isn’t all that impressive, this is a guy who just has a habit of getting things done, as his 17th place ranking on Tour for Birdie Average will attest to. Another Californian who has since moved to pastures new, Champ has won on Bentgrass before at the Safeway Open and he will feel comfortable on the greens this week – maybe that will be the catalyst for a big performance from the mighty hitter. He ranks 2nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, 17th in Birdie Average and 58th in Greens in Regulation (Risking 0.2 units to qin 18). 

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Head-to-head Matchups for the PGA Championship

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365, Coolbet or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

H2H

Sungjai Im -104 over Abraham Ancer (Pinny)

Abraham Ancer is good, make no mistake about that and he also finished 2nd at this course in 2019 but this week the dynamics are different. When Ancer finished second, it wasn’t a loaded field like it is this week and he has never won when the lights were bright. He also ranks 91st in Driving Distance, 88th In Greens in Regulation (GIR) and 116th in SG; Around the Greens. 

Sungjae Im has won already this year. There was a welcome return to form for Im last week at the Wyndham Championship, who played his final three rounds in a combined -15 to bag a T9 finish. Timing is everything in sport, so maybe the Korean has been looking for a solution to his swing problems in time for the business end of the campaign – it was a search that looked to have proven fruitful last week. A fantastic driver of the ball, Im gained strokes on the field in all departments last week, and with plenty of form to his name on the east coast he will be chomping at the bit to put his recent improvements back to work. He’s the superior talent here priced as an underdog (RIsking 2.08 units to win 2). 

Matthew Wolff -122 over Kevin Kisner (Pinny)

Kevin Kisner ranks 176th in Driving Distance, 100th in Birdie Average and 157th in Driving Accuracy but dude has three top-25’s in a row, including a T3 at the Wyndham last week so his stock is high right now. That makes us sellers at this price, as Matthew Wolff is clearly the superior pro.

It’s hard not to like the chances this week of Matthew Wolff, who looked in outstanding form at the PGA Championship just two weeks ago, and he has plenty going for him this week. A Californian who has set up home in Florida, there’s the handy combination of Bentgrass comfortability and east coast fondness for Wolff, and a couple of decent efforts at other Arnold Palmer designs – notably TPC Twin Cities – also bodes well. A quality driver of the ball, Wolff also hit some majestic approach shots in the PGA and if he can replicate that form he will absolutely be a force to be reckoned with this week. Two top 10s and a top 20 in his last six events mean he is hitting form at the right time heading into the playoffs and we are absolutely on board for him to finish ahead of Kisner (Risking 2.44 units to win 2).

Alex Noren -116 over Emiliano Grillo (Pinny)

When the going gets tough, Emiliano Grillo is almost always nowhere to be found. Lots of talent but his window of opportunity keeps getting smaller and when he’s surrounded by the best in the world, he often chokes. Grillo almost always has a WTF round, he misses cuts regularly and we just cannot trust him to go well when there’s something good on the line. 

Meanwhile, Alex Noren has found some form in the run up to the playoffs with two top-10s in three events. Most recently, an impressive under-the-radar display secured him a T22 at the PGA Championship. Noren currently ranks 34th for Putting Average and 20th for Scrambling, while also ranking 15th for Par 5 Scoring Average. Despite his international pedigree, it's always a noteworthy success when a PGA TOUR non-winner on conditional status qualifies for the FedExCup Playoffs. He's 72nd in points. Playing time is limited and scheduling can be difficult, but the Swede navigated the strangest season in memory masterfully. Because of his cachet and terrific recent form, he's poised to make noise beginning here and as a small favorite over Grillo, Noren represents great value (Risking 2.32 units to win 2). 

Tyrell Hatton -105 over Tommy Fleetwood (Bet365)

This wager is a case of “reading between the lines” in regards to the sharpest sports book on the planet. A couple of weeks ago, the sportsbooks had Tiger Woods a big underdog in the H2H matchups against anyone he was up against. This week, Pinnacle Sports has Tiger favored over Tommy Fleetwood. If that’s not hanging a proverbial carrot over our heads, we don’t know what is. We’re not going to bite on Fleetwood, although we probably should take Tiger but instead at BET365, they have Fleetwood favored over Tyrell Hatton. That’s the ticket right there. Fleetwood’s inability to connect for something special since resuming his season with a missed cut at the 3M Open is curious. He's a trap in his debut here against Tiger. Pinnacle is betting that Fleetwood is a mess right now and so we’ll take the 14th ranked player in the world, Tyrell Hatton to beat him at BET365 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2). 

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright.

Si-Woo Kim 90-1

You never quite know what’s around the corner for Si-Woo Kim, a mercurially talented Korean, but all the signs right now are rather positive. T13 at the PGA Championship was followed by T3 at the Wyndham Championship, where he looked set to add a third PGA TOUR title to his collection before a final round of 70 ended his hopes. Both of those efforts were built on an absolute iron game clinic, and with strokes gained on the greens at the Wyndham, Kim is certainly trending in the right direction, cue an opening round of 80 this week. He’s so good that he’s worth the gamble. 

Harold Varner III 140-1

A big performance from Harold Varner III this week would see him into the field for the BMW Championship. It’s hard to work out why Varner III – who ranks 11th on Tour for SG: Tee-to-Green – hasn’t broken his PGA TOUR duck yet, but actually the equation is pretty simple; he simply doesn’t putt consistently well enough. He actually gained shots on the greens last week, however, so maybe there is enough of an improvement incoming to sweep Varner III back to the upper echelons of the leaderboard following his T7 at the Wyndham. He just always seems to be around the leaderboard and he’s underpriced to be sure with his 20th place ranking in SG: Off-the-Tee, 23rd in SG: Approach and 33rd in Scoring Average. 

Tony Finau 40-1

For those that continue to wager on him, Tony Finau remains a frustrating nuisance of a headache for his inability to close wins out. But for DFS gamers, he is the gift that keeps on giving with consistently good performances – three top-10 finishes in his last four starts, and a penchant for shooting under par (13th on Tour for Birdie Average). The extra space off the tee will suit Finau, who can occasionally spray his drives here, there and everywhere, and shooting from the short stuff will allow his excellent iron game to shine. The stats suggest that he is working very hard on his putting and seeing some improvements, so at a course where he finished T4 in 2018, we have to expect another strong showing from ‘Big Tone’ this week.

Corey Conners 200-1

Connors cannot be 200-1 so he would be worth a bet to win outright and in EACH WAY betting. Statistically, he should roll out of bed and record a top 25. He has three in seven starts this summer. As one of the best ball-strikers, his result will boil down to his putter as usual, but he's fared OK at Sedgefield with a scoring average of 67.38 in eight rounds. He also finished T22 last year at this event so he figures to be ready once again. 

Results

Wagers lost

4 Pros to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -0.8 units

Matthew Wolff -122 over Kevin Kisner (Pinny) = -2.44 units

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Wagers won

Sungjai Im -104 over Abraham Ancer (Pinny) = +2 units

Alex Noren -116 over Emiliano Grillo (Pinny) = +2 units

Tyrell Hatton -105 over Tommy Fleetwood = +2 units

Therefore 6 units in wins -3.24 units in losses = a net win of 2.76 units for this event

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