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Posted Wednesday, June 17 at 11:30 AM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is June 18 at 6:45 AM EST. 

Streaming Subscribers: Watch on Sky Sports Golf Channel in the Sky Sports Group beginning at 6:45 AM EST on Thursday and every day thereafter.

RBC Heritage Preview

Golf may have been gone for three months, but it hasn’t lost its status as the ultimate sport for testing nerve and skill. At the Charles Schwab Challenge there was no lack of skill on show, but as for nerve – well, you might conclude that both Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele lost theirs as the winning line beckoned.

This first event back was merely an appetizer for what is to come over the next few months on the PGA TOUR, but it certainly provided plenty of talking points nonetheless. We found out who had been grinding on the range, who had been practicing their putting (is Jordan Spieth ready to hit top form again), who had been hitting the weights (Bryson DeChambeau averaged more than 50 yards longer off the tee than anybody else on Thursday) and who, simply, hadn’t picked their clubs up in weeks (*cough* Webb Simpson *cough*).

Anyway, we move on and it’s off to Hilton Head this week for the rescheduled RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Links in South Carolina.

It’s worth noting that normally this tournament takes place a week after The Masters, so there tends to be something of an Augusta hangover in the battle for the tartan jacket. That said, there’s plenty of quality operators available at 50/1 or greater this week, and as we saw with Berger at Colonial, there’s a chance for less-fancied players to shine even in premium class fields.

With the wind largely down and the greens much softer than usual, Colonial was more of a leisurely unwind than most expected – don’t anticipate similarly benign conditions at Hilton Head. The breeze gets up in this part of the world and with many of the holes at the Harbour Town Links located on the coast, that can have a real impact on shot selection.

The more in-land holes are tree-lined, so there is some protection there, however that doesn’t mean the players can breathe a complete sigh of relief – after all, Harbour Town was designed by one Pete Dye. Admittedly, this is not his most devilish layout, but -12 has been good enough to win here for the last two seasons, and that gives a flavor of the complexity of the challenge. The Dye trademark – smaller-than-average greens – is present, as are some deep bunkers and sweeping doglegs. Otherwise, this plays like a traditional Links with sprawling fairways and closely mown run-off areas around the greens, and at 7,100 yards for its Par 71 the layout is a fair size.

What We’re Looking for:

While we switch to Bermuda greens from the Bentgrass of Colonial, there are a lot of similar profiling techniques to bring forward from last week. Firstly, finding the fairway is a major advantage – the rough is left long and stringy at Harbour Town, and it really is the stuff of nightmares to play out of. Approaching these small greens, especially in a crosswind, is far more agreeable from the short stuff too. Trouble lurks for any errant iron play. That said, there will naturally be some missed greens, and one profile we really like at Harbour Town are the clever chippers and scramblers who can produce a bit of magic, knock it close and move on to the next hole. Form at other Pete Dye tracks is of limited relevance, seeing as most of his layouts are found inland, but if you are looking for correlating courses then maybe Pebble Beach, Waialae and Sea Island are of some significance. There’s no emphasis on length off the tee, instead, we expect this event to be contested by chippers and scramblers who can produce consistent excellence with wedges in hand and making some putts.

It’s worth noting that this event has been very kind to sleeper pick bettors in recent years – C.T. Pan (160/1), Satoshi Kodaira (200/1) and Wesley Bryan (66/1) all rewarding their backers handsomely when taking care of business on the Links.

2020 RBC Heritage Field

Traditionally, it has proven difficult for the organizers of this event to attract a high-quality field given its normal position in the schedule a week after The Masters. No such problems in 2020 mean that, once again, a stellar collection of players will hit the Links at Harbour Town but once again, we are looking for longshots because there is no value playing anyone under 25 or 30 -1.

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To Win Outright: These are played at BET365 because of their cashout option.

Russell Henley 150-1

Price is too good on this pro to pass up on. 11th in approaches at Riviera and fourth in around the green play, things can happen quickly for Russ when his irons get hot like this. In his last two events before the suspension of play, Henley finished 17th and 8th respectively at the Genesis Invitational and the Honda Classic. He loves this venue, having made six of seven cuts here and won off zero form here in 2014. Basically, this is just a straight up disrespectful number here for a three-time Tour winner and past champion who was heating up big time just before the pandemic hit. The change in surface should be good for his putter as well (Risking 0.2 units to win 30).

Shane Lowry 70-1

A third place finish here in 2019 should come as no surprise, as this golf course is absolutely perfect for Shane Lowry. The Irishman grew up playing coastal Links tracks, and that grounding in the wind means he had to develop a fine short game – especially when chipping onto ultra-firm greens. The only question mark about Lowry is why he hasn’t won more in his career, although he did rectify that by lifting two trophies in 2019 – including the British Open. Lowry ranks 24th ON TOUR in GIR, 29th in SG: Tee to Green and he’s ranked 22nd in the world. At 80-1, he’s worth a wager (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

Lucas Glover 175-1

Seriously, 175-1? Yeah. we'll take a shot. Glover finished tied for 23rd at Colonial, posting 21 total birdies and a ranking of first overall in driving accuracy. His tee-to-green game was in line with his top 25 ranking since 2019. Before a missed cut last year, Glover had finished top 35 four years straight at the Heritage. The former U.S. Open champion has enjoyed a career renaissance recently. A runner-up finish at the 2018 Korn Ferry Tour Championship clinched his PGA TOUR card for the next season and he proceeded to finish 17th-or-better in 10 of his next 12 starts. While he hasn’t kept up with that torrid pace, that aforementioned T-23 result last week should portend good things for this week, at an event where he tends to post some decent numbers, but has never really seriously contended. It feels like time for Glover to get himself into the mix on a Sunday afternoon and his ball-striking numbers suggest this could be the time (Risking 0.2 units to win 35 units).

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 140-1

Something of a left-field pick, the South African has a tremendous range of chips and bunts in his locker, and he should enjoy the test presented at Harbour Town. Bezuidenhout would have won the high-class Dubai Desert Classic earlier in the year but for a mistake as the winning line approached, but here is a guy who has won at Valderrama and who has a bank of fine form in windy conditions to his name. You may not take much notice of these things, but Bezuidenhout is now ranked inside the world’s top 50 players according to the OWGR, and that is testament to his fine progress. Keep an eye out for him. (Risking 0.2 units to win 2).

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Head-to-head Matchups for the RBC Heritage

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365, Coolbet or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

Adam Hadwin +100 over Corey Conners (Coolbet)

It can be challenging to find some of the matchups one wants to bet but we’re going to start using whatever matchups we find no matter the book. One of our fade targets this week is Corey Conners because of his high profile performance last week at Colonial, where he was in contention and finished T19th. This week we found two matchups at Coolbet and we’re going to bite on one (the other one is against Bubba and we’ll pass). . You see, Conners has not been able to deliver the goods at Harbour Town, as his 0-3 here would attest to. He’s only finished in the red once in those three tries as well.

Meanwhile, Adam Hadwin finished T43rd last week but had two outstanding rounds. Hadwin is three for three in his last three visits to Harbour Town with finishes of 30th, T22 and T48, respectively. Hadwin ranks 33rd ON TOUR in Driving Accuracy, 2nd in Sand Saves, 34th in Scoring Average and 27th in SG: Putting. He’s wrongly billed as the underdog here. We’re suggesting you find a matchup and fade Conners (Risking 2 units to win 2 units).

Kevin Kisner -112 over Jordan Spieth (Coolbet)

Pinnacle Sports has Kisner -112 over Spieth. Coolbet has Spieth -139 over Kisner in the first round. We have written many times about Pinnacle Sports being one of the sharper books in the universe and this is another example of it. Pinnacle isn’t right 100% of the time but when they “take a position” we must try to take advantage. Spieth had a great showing at Colonial last week in front of one of the biggest TV viewing audiences ever so his value shot way the f**k up. PGA is salivating over the thought of Spieth being great again (he’s in every commercial) and so the hype train on him is heating up. Prior to the pandemic hitting, Spieth was ranked outside the top-50 in the OWGR but he’s priced like he’s top-15.

On his own Twitter feed, Kevin Kisner remarked that he felt his game was ‘coming together’ right now. Ahead of a trip to one of his favorite layouts on Tour, that bodes very well. A formline of 41-7-11-69-2 reveals complete comfort on the Links here, and his improving confidence will surely be elevated when he tees up on Thursday. A player with a fine short game, Kisner’s house is in order for a really strong showing this week and Pinnacle says he’ll beat Jordan. That’s our cue to move in (Risking 2.24 units to win 2 units).

Patrick Reed -125 over Jordan Spieth (BET365)

Why stop at Kisner? Reed over Spieth at -125 might be the bargain of the week. We already wrote about Spieth above so there is not much more to say other than mentioning Spieth’s performance last week that included several extremely lucky bounces off trees and into a clear lane to the pin. He won’t be so lucky this week.

Then there’s Patrick Reed. At a wind-affected golf course where short game is key….Patrick Reed is a master. His record in Links golf, both in the USA and in Britain, is outstanding, and Reed is a player who really thrives when the wind is blowing. His short game is better than most, that is beyond doubt, and he is simply playing very good golf right now – a winner in Mexico three starts ago, he has since posted T15 at the Arnold Palmer and T7 last week. His short game at Colonial, especially over the weekend, was in absolutely outstanding shape, and Reed looks ready to contend once more. He ranks 2nd ON TOUR in SG: Putting, 7th in Scoring Average and 25th in SG: Around-the-Green. If he were more than the listed price of 28-1, we would be all over him but as value bettors, we’ll settle for this (Risking 2.5 units to win 2 units).

Justin Thomas -110 over Bryson DeChambeau (Coolbet)

In 2015, JT finished 10th at Harbour Town. Also In 2015, JT did not play in the Masters. In 2016, he did play in the Masters and the week after, he played the RBC Heritage and finished 75th. He has not played the RBC Heritage since because it is always the week after the Masters. Not this year so expect JT to be at or near his best because he really is one of the best. He ranks 1st in Official Money Won this year, he ranks 1st in Birdie Average, he ranks 4th in Scoring Average and he ranks 12th in GIR. The list of his high rankings in specific categories goes on and on but we trust you get the picture.

Bryson DeChambeau has received plenty of press over the past week since he “beefed up” over the suspension. Dude was 50 yards longer than anyone on TOUR last week but he looked more like a weightlifter than a golfer. Now, we’re no experts on fitness or weight gain but we do know that a significant weight gain or loss over a short period of time is not a good thing. Bryson has missed the cut in two of his three visits to this course over the past three years now his stock is soaring after his well-documented improved length off the tee last week to go along with his 3rd place finish. JT is -116 at Pinnacle and that, too, comes recommended if you can’t find a better price. (Risking 2.20 units to win 2 units).

Joel Dahmen -109 over Jason Day (Pinnacle)

Jason Day hasn’t been delivering much lately and although he has a decent record at this track, he hasn’t played here since 2016. He missed the cut at Colonial by four strokes where he hadn't appeared since 2011. In his first appearance here at Harbour Town last year, Joel Dahmen finished T16th. Last week at Colonial, he finished 19th. Dahmen grades out pretty well in many of the key metrics. Over his last two starts on TOUR, (one before the pandemic and one after), he gained over 7 strokes on Approach. He’ll need his putter to start firing here for a truly big week but great Par 4 stats over short and long term, mixed with a guy who looks primed for a win soon, not to mention he shot a 62 during the break in a practice round and he looks like a great bet to beat Day and maybe even win it at 80-1. (2.18 to win 2)

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright.

Ian Poulter 80-1

Another player who routinely comes up with the goods at Harbour Town is Ian Poulter, whose formline of 10-7-11-54-18 here tells its own story in technicolor. He started like a train with a round of 66 at Colonial, and while he fell away from there, it was pleasing to see how well he was striking the ball – especially on the greens, where he appears to have his feel back. With proven form in the wind and on Pete Dye tracks, Poulter has to be respected at Harbour Town.

Branden Grace 60-1

The South African holds the record for the lowest-ever round in the British Open, so you can bet your bottom dollar that he loves playing Links golf. Other than off the tee, Grace was in excellent touch at Colonial last time out, and with the fairways and driving lines more forgiving at Harbour Town, he should be in prime position to thrive.

Matthew NeSmith 250-1

NeSmith is a South Carolina native who lists Harbour Town as his favorite course. In fact, he proposed to his wife on the 18th green here, so get ready to hear that story a few times this week. As for his game, NeSmith was one of the best ball-strikers on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, but his putting would let him down. We’re hoping he’ll get hot with the flat stick this week, since he’ll know the greens pretty well. He also should understand how to get the ball around this course and score, which gives him some value at this number.

Hideki Matsuyama 30-1

If you want a HORSE this week, Matsuyama is your man. If there’s an edge this week, it might come in fading the edge that everyone else thinks they have. With one tournament now under our belts in the TOUR’s return, expect the masses to zig toward those who have shown some recent form – i.e. those who competed last week. I’d rather zag and take a well-rested pro and one of the game’s best ball-strikers, a metric about which you’ll hear the importance ad nauseum this week. Although there’s no real record of Hideki performing better after lengthy layoffs and he owns very little history at Harbour Town (MC six years ago in his only previous start), expect his deft iron play to offer a distinct advantage on this golf course. It’s been nearly three full years since his last victory, which is simply too long for a player of this caliber. It’s going to happen soon and this feels like a proper week for it. Besides, it’d also be a little karma for that wiped-away opening-round 63 at The PLAYERS three months ago.

Total Units Wagered = 11.92 - We will update the results after this event.

Net result was -5.54 units

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