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Posted Wednesday, June 10 at 12:15 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is June 11 at 7:00 AM EST. 

Streaming Subscribers: Watch on Sky Sports Golf Channel in the Sky Sports Group beginning at 8:00 AM EST on Thursday and every day thereafter.

Charles Schwab Challenge

Event Preview

And we’re back! After what feels like a lifetime without our favorite sport, golf returns on Thursday with the Charles Schwab Challenge at the legendary Colonial Country Club. The PGA TOUR has worked wonders in putting together a revised schedule to complete the rest of the season, and barring any complications from the coronavirus there will be one tournament each week until the traditional conclusion of the campaign – the TOUR Championship – in September.

One of the unique narratives of the ‘new normal’ is that, for now at least, no crowds will be allowed to gather on the course. That will present a new dynamic for each event, and may offer some unique conditions for DFS gamers and sports bettors to consider. Will guys like Patrick Reed and Brooks Koepka, who seem to get pumped when playing in loud environments or in front of significant numbers of people, be able to get their mojo going? Will players like Tony Finau, blessed with outstanding talent but unable to close out a win, feel more at ease down the closing stretch? Only time will tell, of course, but it will certainly be interesting to watch the drama unfold in these unprecedented moments for professional golf.

Having had at least 12 weeks off competitive golf since the first round of the PLAYERS Championship, we take something of a leap into the unknown at the Charles Schwab Challenge but elite-level golf is back….and that’s all that matters.

Charles Schwab Challenge Field

Any concerns as to whether the players would want to risk their health playing in these times can be quickly kicked to the curb when we look at the field this week. This is, in spirit if not by name, a major-quality field, and proof positive that everyone simply wants to get back to their day job. Leading the way we have Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau.

Such is the depth of this talent pool that you have the likes of Dustin Johnson (+2800), Rickie Fowler (+3500) and Tony Finau (+4000) at crazy betting prices, while recent(ish) Tour winners Patrick Reed and Sungjae Im find themselves in a similar bracket.

Major winners pepper the field with Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth also in the mix, while defending champion here Kevin Na will be looking to add to his fine record at Colonial.

This Week's Course Preview

Historically, the likes of McIlroy and Thomas have steered clear of playing at Colonial Country Club. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and so they will be taking a trip to Fort Worth, Texas for the resumption of the season. Why they, and others have consistently avoided Colonial remains to be seen, but one thing that is for certain is that the players will find themselves enjoying a quality test of their ball-striking this week.

Nicknamed ‘Hogan’s Alley’ after Ben Hogan, the nine-time major champion who won five times at Colonial, this is an old-fashioned style track where the emphasis is on strategy, accurate ball-striking and reliable short putting. The Par 70 layout measures around 7,200 yards in length and features 12 Par 4 holes and just two Par 5s, so making hay on the ‘standard’ holes is key.

There are many tree-lined and doglegging holes – predominantly on the ‘horrible horseshoe’ of three, four and five, which is ranked as one of the trickiest trio of holes on the PGA TOUR. There are stacks of bunkers on the premises too, and many of these protect the smaller-than-average Bentgrass greens, which run at a fair old lick of around 12 on the stimpmeter when weather conditions allow.

Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX

It’s going to be an extremely hot and dry week for the players to enjoy in Fort Worth. The mercury could hit a whopping 98°F by the weekend, and even for the 7am starters, it should be a very agreeable 70°F at worst.

There is literally no rain in the forecast – precipitation is set at 0% throughout the four days of action, while the wind looks fairly settled at around the 10-12mph mark, which is pretty standard in Texas at the best of times.

What We’re Looking for:

How do we handicap a golf field in which the players haven’t played competitively for three months!?

Well, we have to go back to old-fashioned research and course profiling in order to work around the fact we have no recent form to work with. So what do we know about Colonial? Well, length off the tee seems to be wholly irrelevant given that Na, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker and David Toms have all won here, and instead our focus turns to other areas of excellence.

The sheer number of doglegging holes puts accurate shot shaping at a premium, as does the ability to avoid what are strategically-placed bunkers along the fairways and peppered around the greens. The rough tends to be thick and difficult to play from too, and given that the greens are small, we really need our picks to be approaching from the short grass more often than not. These Bentgrass surfaces are slick too, so we need players comfortable in that environment – there will be many putts attempted from inside 20ft, so that should prove to be a key stat this week. Also, like any Par 70 layout, Colonial places an emphasis on Par 4 performance, and because there are some tough holes on this stretch, Bogey Avoidance is another stat to consider.  

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To Win Outright: These are played at BET365 because of their cashout option.

Harris English 66-1

There has been a significant renaissance to Harris English’s game this season, and he has been playing as well as he did in his peak of 2013-14 when he won twice on the PGA TOUR. Ranking top-10 for Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Performance, English has the grinding game for Colonial and that is confirmed by his consistency this term – seven top-25s in 11 starts is an excellent return. If he returns in the form he showed prior to the coronavirus pandemic, English will surely be a valuable sleeper this week. Dude ranks 10th in Par 4 Scoring Average, 18th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 39th in SG: Putting. (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).

Max Homa 80-1

These early weeks back could present opportunities for some young studs to enter the winner’s circle as the big guns get back up to match sharpness, and one player as poised as any is Max Homa. At 29 he may not be a spring chicken anymore, but he is young as far as his golf career is concerned and you suspect he will only improve from here. A winner at the tree-lined Quail Hollow last season, Homa’s best efforts tend to come at strategic courses where the greens run fast. Top-10s at Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale and Riviera this season alone are a testament to that. The Californian is naturally at home on Bentgrass greens, and he will be chomping at the bit to get started at Colonial. Max Homa’s SG: APPROACH THE GREEN ranking went from 134th to 80th overall in his last event and that’s a significant improvement on one of our key stats this week (Risking 0.2 units to win 16).

Harry Higgs 200-1

It’s been a solid start to his maiden PGA TOUR campaign for Harry Higgs, and he might just fancy a return to Texan soil where he studied and now lives. With 11 cuts made in 15 starts, Higgs is a reliable and consistent performer with two top-10s and six further top-25s – a perfect formula for a low budget sleeper play. Higgs has ground out decent scores in tough conditions at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines, so he could thrive in what will be an unusual tournament at Colonial. At this price, he’s certainly worth a small wager (Risking 0.2 units to win 40).

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Head-to-head Matchups for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365 or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

Xander Schauffele -121 over Dustin Johnson Pinnacle

Other than UFC, for mainstream bettors, this is a return to normalcy and we expect this first PGA event to attract plenty of attention. Sports betting returns with this event and Dustin Johnson is sure to get more than a few looks. When the unsuspecting public sees DJ a dog, they’ll bite. We are fading DJ this week in more than one head-to-head matchup and we’ll start with this one.

You see, DJ has not appeared at Colonial since 2014. Why? It’s quite obvious that it’s a course he preferred to stay away from. Aside from that, he has acknowledged the rust and proved its existence despite victory in the TaylorMade Driving Relief. Finally, DJ ranks 89th ON TOUR in SG: Approach The Green and 164th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation Percentage. Those are two key stats this week. Dustin Johnson played an event in February and then again in May in the aforementioned TaylorMade but that is an exhibition and not an official event.

Xander Schauffele does not have a great course history and that’s the reason we get him at a steal here. Lots of pundits are looking at course history here but in this case, we couldn’t care less. You see, Xander is likely going to be a multiple major winner by the end of his career, and one of the reasons for that is his ability to minimize mistakes. Ranking top-10 on Tour for Bogey Avoidance, Schauffele comes into his own at more testing layouts, and Colonial – its complexity multiplied by a lack of competitive golf among the field – ticks that box. The weak point of his game – accuracy off the tee – will be lessened by taking irons and woods off the peg this week, and that will let his fantastic iron and wedge shine from the short stuff. He ranks 8th ON TOUR in Scoring Average, 9th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 10th in Bogey Avoidance (Risking 2.42 units to win 2 units).

Sungjae Im -110 over Dustin Johnson Pinnacle

We love that Pinnacle Sports is offering up Dustin Johnson as a dog to the much lesser known Sungjae Im. Incidentally, CoolBet has Dustin Johnson -118 over Im. Those that follow golf week-to-week obviously know who Sungjae Im is but those that do not are not aware of how good he is. This is Pinnacle hanging a proverbial carrot out to anyone that will bite. DJ won the TaylorMade Driving Relief on May 17th and the “squares” will see that as a recent event that shows he’s in form but trust us when we suggest it meant jack. We already discussed DJ above and we’re sticking to our guns here.

Sungjae Im is the current FedEx Cup leader. He also hired a new caddie, Albin Choi, during the break. Choi earned $242,000 in 110 Korn Ferry Tour starts from 2015-19 and helped Im to his first career victory at the Honda Classic in March. Their chemistry should keep Im climbing towards a top 10 world ranking. Sungjae Im was in great form before the hiatus and there is no reason that he can’t keep it going. Dude ranks 10th ON TOUR in Scoring Average, 10th in Birdie Average, 15th in Sand Save % and 2nd in Money Won. He’s a steal at this price over DJ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Billy Horschel -110 over Kevin Kisner (BET365)

The last time we saw Kevin Kisner play was at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he missed the cut. That was on March 8th. Prior, he played in the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship in late February. Kisner is 36-years old and also missed the cut at this event last year after shooting back-to-back 74’s over the first two days. Kevin Kisner ranks 188th in Greens in Regulation Percentage, 148th in SG Approach the Green and 176th in Birdie Average. We trust BET365 has misjudged this one and we’re all over it. It is worth noting that Pinnacle Sports has Billy Ho a -164 favorite over Max Homa.

Few players enjoy golf in Texas quite like Billy Horschel. A former AT&T Byron Nelson champion, Horschel has also racked up top-three returns in the Houston Open and Texas Open as well. A top-20 here last year confirms what we already suspected: Colonial is a perfect fit for B-Ho’s game, given that he is fairly accurate off the tee, boasts an excellent short game and has a nice feel with the flat stick. Billy Ho isn’t explosive by any means, but Horschel ranks 18th on Tour for Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders, and his penchant for Par 70 tracks gets us excited for this great value play and opportunity (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Collin Morikawa -120 over Scottie Scheffler (Bet365)

We like Scottie Scheffler very much but in this case, he’s getting a bit too much credit against one of the best up and coming golfers on tour. We also like that Pinnacle Sports has Gary Woodland, a pro that has not played at Colonial since 2012, a -117 favorite over Scheffler. We find this wager at BET365 and it’s more about getting behind Morikawa then it is about fading Scheffler.

Both Scheffler and Morikawa will make their Colonial debut here but we have to give a big edge to the latter because Morikawa is good no matter where he plays. He also doesn’t miss cuts. In fact, he’s a perfect 20-for-20 as a professional with a win, a T2 and another four top 10s among 11 top 25s. There is no question that some pros will have trouble shaking off the rust but we’re willing to bet that Morikawa won’t be one of them. He now becomes a juicy option because of his incredible consistency and his outstanding tee-to-green proficiency that sees him ranked 4th ON TOUR in SG: Approach the Green while Scheffler ranks 64th in the same category. (Risking 2.4 units to win 2).

Rickie Fowler -106 over Patrick Reed Pinnacle

We have seen Patrick Reed’s name mentioned frequently by those covering/wagering this event and that has us a little skeptical. Reed tends to thrive when least expected and while he’s always a threat to do well, Rickie has become somewhat of an afterthought these days. Rarely would you have seen Reed favored over Fowler in the past but here we are, at a course that suits Fowler and now he’s a small underdog to Reed.

Rickie Fowler was trending in the right direction, ball-striking wise, before the pandemic hit and is fourth in Par 4 efficiency from 400-450 yards (a key distance this week) over the last 24 rounds. More importantly, he’s gained the fifth-most strokes putting on bentgrass of anyone in the field over his last 50 rounds on the surface. Four of the last five winners have gained seven or more strokes with the putter during the week of their win here and Rickie is capable of that and more. He gained over six strokes putting here in 2018 and has won at TPC Boston, another bentgrass venue and solid comparable. He’s also done quite well after long breaks finishing 2nd at the OHL in 2017 after nearly three months of no competitive golf (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Webb Simpson +110 over Justin Thomas (Bet365)

Justin Thomas is making his first appearance at Colonial and we have to wonder why a pro of JT’s caliber would shy away from playing at the famed Hogan’s Alley. Baseball players want to play at Fenway, Wrigley and Yankee Stadium. Hockey players can’t wait to play in places like Montreal, Toronto and Madison Square Gardens. For golfers, Hogan’s Alley or the Colonial is on their bucket list before they turn pro so is curious as to why JT has shied away from this event for so long. That’s our cue to move in on Webb Simpson here.

With three months away from competitive action, there will presumably be some kind of leveling of the field effect. While he may not be a fashionable name, Webb Simpson IS one of the best players in the world – his OWGR of seven is testament to that – and he should be considered for any event, but especially so when the absolute elite are shy of match practice. Simpson has always been exceptional from tee-to-green, but now that his putter is starting to behave itself, the rewards are coming – the Phoenix Open champion has banked four consecutive top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR. Ranking first on Tour for Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Performance, Simpson is the perfect pick on Par 70 tracks where there is an element of difficulty. Aside from ranking first in both Par 4 Performance and Bogey Avoidance, he also ranks 13th in SG Putting (Risking 2 units).

Jon Rahm +105 over Rory McIlroy Pinnacle

Of course Rory needs no introductions but there is a reason why he’s never played at Colonial. It very simply doesn’t suit his game like the other courses do. That’s not to say he can’t slay it but there is a price to pay to wager on the world #1 and we’re going to trust that the public is going to eat up the overexposed Rory as a small favorite over the under-exposed Rambo.

Jon Rahm does not get the same accolades as Rory, JT, DJ or others when he should be getting just as much, if not more because he really is the world’s most refined pro. Data Golf released a report ranking Rahm’s current stretch of torrid golf as the 3rd best on the PGA Tour since 2004, based on strokes gained. It’s an elite list to be sure (Tiger from 2006-08, is first). Rahm also enjoys a sterling record in Fort Worth with a pair of top 5s in his young career and now we get him at a bargain price against another great pro that gets way more hype (Risking 2 units to win 2.10).

Other Notes: Pinnacle Sports has Viktor Hovland -120 over Kevin Na while Coolbet has Kevin Na -119 over Viktor Hovland. Based on the “Pinnacle Angle”, bet Hovland -103 over Kevin Na at Coolbet. If you don’t have an account at Coolbet, bet Hovland -120 at Pinnacle. Personally, I made that wager at Coolbet but will not include it here in my official results for this event because I am betting it at -103.

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright.

Tony Finau 35-1

One of the most appealing features of Tony Finau’s game is his consistency, and the hope is that he will be the kind of player who can hit the ground running hard. Another tee-to-green flusher, Finau has shown glimpses of an improvement with the flat stick this season and he has been able to convert chances created by his iron and wedge game. Second in this event last year, Finau has a well-documented problem of getting over the line so maybe the lack of golf of others – and the lack of a crowd building the pressure – may be to his advantage. Finau ranks 6th ON TOUR in SG: Around-the-Green, 10th in SG: Approach and 32nd in Par 4 Scoring Average (Risking 0.2 units to win 7).

Danny Lee 125-1

With three top-15 finishes and a T22 at Colonial within the last five years, Danny Lee is a low budget chalk play that should reward his backers with a decent run this week. It seems like a lifetime ago now, but Lee was well fancied at the halfway stage of his last outing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – a closing pair of 75s put paid to that, but he at least closed out the first part of the season with confidence. A solid tee-to-green player who thrives on Bentgrass greens, Lee ranks inside the top-40 on Tour for Scoring Average, and so he should be on the shortlist this week.

Jimmy Walker 175-1

Walker’s Approach game was really coming around prior to the long break, as he had gained 9.3 strokes on Approach alone in his last two starts. Dude also has a great Colonial history, including multiple top-30’s here over the past four years. For a guy who has played a lot of bad golf lately, that sticks out. He can still bring it with the putter.

Total Units Wagered = 15.94 - We will update the results after this event.

Wagers won

Collin Morikawa -120 over Scottie Scheffler = +2 units

Sungjae Im -110 over Dustin Johnson = +2 units

Xander Schauffele -121 over Dustin Johnson = + 2 units

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Wagers lost

3 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -0.6 units

Billy Horschel -110 over Kevin Kisner 

Rickie Fowler -106 over Patrick Reed

Jon Rahm +105 over Rory McIlroy

 

Therefore 6.92 in losses - 6 units in wins = a total net loss for this event of

0.92 units.

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