BEST LINES: Pinnacle  SportsInteraction  5DIMES

Posted Wednesday, February 12 at 1:30 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is February 6 at 9:00 AM EST. 

The Genesis Invitational Course Preview

Given that it first hosted this event in 1929, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Riviera is a classic, traditionalists’ course. And it is, to some extent. The clever landscaping has left some tight lines off the tee, with trees and thick Kikuyu rough dictating that only quality drivers need apply here. That said, you can still miss fairways – as long as you know where to miss, and are creative in how you scramble your way to the green.

Playing at 7,322 yards for its Par 71, Riviera is a long old stretch and features six Par 4s that measure over 350 yards and a pair of Par 5s close to the 600-yard mark. Length is almost certainly an advantage here – especially when it’s wet. The George Thomas design is quite unique – similarities to Augusta are occasionally mentioned – in that the course management side comes from knowing which fairways to miss and where, and also how to miss the green without short-siding yourself or leaving a stinky angle in. To give you some idea of how to play this track, J.B. Holmes won here 12 months ago despite hitting just 52% of fairways. But he found 72% of greens in regulation, which shows that an ability to play out of rough or pine straw is essential this week. 

The George Thomas design, which was given something of a facelift by Tom Fazio in 2008, is considered the ‘thinking man’s’ course, and the bulk of that thinking seems to go into where to miss the fairway. The final piece of the puzzle in solving the layout known affectionately as ‘Hogan’s Alley’ are the small and fast Poa Annua greens, which can be tough to hold when dry with their unique shelves and contours.

The Genesis Invitational Field

This is surely the best field of the season so far, and it has a major-like feel to it despite one or two exceptions. For DFS players, good luck splitting Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm, with Tiger Woods, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay also providing stern opposition. The big names keep on coming: three-time Riviera champion Bubba Watson, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Scott, Finau, Matsuyama….and so on. The Genesis Invitational field is like a who’s who of world golf, and it’s depth will surely guarantee a high quality week of golf and a stellar finish on Sunday into the bargain.

What We’re Looking For This Week

For new readers of this section, we’re always after pros at odds of 40-1 or better. While we understand that the top tier golfers are very likely to win, the odds are not big enough for us to flip a coin on a 10-1 shot or so because they don’t win often enough individually to warrant that wager. Guys like McIlroy, Rahm, DJ and many others are a huge threat but we’re always going after long shots because one a year will show a profit. Last year we did not hit one winner but two years ago we hit five. 

This week there is more than one way to cook the goose at Riviera CC, which is always a tad frustrating when trying to draw up a shortlist of potential winners. History dictates that what you do off the tee is largely irrelevant here, and it’s how you recover that really counts. There will be missed fairways and some missed greens too, so it’s really all about your powers of recovery. Some ingenuity will be required to keep big numbers off your card. It’s really a second shot course, be it from the fairway or the rough. This Kikuyu rough can be a nightmare to play from, but in some areas it is thinner and more like pine straw – these parts, and even adjoining fairways – offer the best angles in. Expertise in long iron play is the key, as is comfort putting on these rapid Poa Annua surfaces.

As for correlating courses, Riviera has the look of Augusta about it and, to some extent, plays like it too with hard, fast, bouncy greens requiring a delicate hand whether approaching, chipping or putting. The sight lines off the tee are similar too, and it’s certainly an angle that could give our choices a unique edge.

-------------------------------------------------------

To Win Outright: These are played at BET365 because of their cashout option.

Kevin Na 75-1

For a player who has turned himself into a relatively prolific winner of late, it is a surprise to see Kevin Na chalked up at such throwaway prices. A winner of the Charles Schwab Challenge and the Shriners within the last eight months or so, Na also won the Greenbrier in the autumn of 2018 – a record that most in the game would happily give their right arm for. Three top-five finishes at Riviera  (top five in 2011, 2017 and 2018) and another top-10 into the bargain thicken the plot yet further, and with current form and course history in the bank Na is clearly of interest. Na thrives on poa annua putting surfaces and his sharp short game has served him well at Riviera in recent years. He made the trip south from Monterey Peninsula feeling good about his game after a T-14 at Pebble Beach. Na ranks 4th in SG: Putting, which could make all the difference in the world (Risking 0.2 units to win 15 units).

Joaquin Niemann 80-1

One day, we might look back on the day that we could get Vegas odds of 80-1 and a DK pricing of $7,300 on Joaquin Niemann and laugh. The Chilean looks to have the profile of a multiple-time winner on the PGA TOUR and perhaps even that of a major champion with his classy ball-striking, and he looks certain to kick on and win again. He’s sneaky long too, and fits the bill of a player who might enjoy some success at Riviera with his ability to hit accurate approaches from 150 yards and further. And then, like many others in the pro game, we simply have to sit and wait for a hot streak with the putter. Niemann ranks 21st ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, 36th in Scoring Average and 40th in Approaches from 150-175 Yards (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

Adam Hadwin 110-1

We’re not jumping ship just yet. After a decent enough return to action at the Phoenix Open, Adam Hadwin disappointed at Pebble Beach and so he will appreciate heading inland to less windy climes. Riviera is a golf course that should reward the Canadian at his best, who can play some sublime approach shots when feeling good about his game. If we can forgive last year’s 75th place finish, Hadwin’s record at this layout reads 6-34-16-22, and that is absolute confirmation that this stretch suits his eye. Remember, Hadwin was off for some time. He’s a new father and he’s getting back into the swing. A good start and he’s going to be a threat. He also has posted some key stats that look mighty appealing coming into this event. For instance, Hadwin ranks 20th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, 24th in Approaches from 150-175 Yards and 38th in SG: Putting (Risking 0.2 units to win 22 units).

Joseph Bramlett 400-1

Bramlett isn’t going to win this event but that doesn’t mean he’s not playable at these odds because he is. Stranger things have happened and he’s a guy to put on your radar because not many even know who the f**k he is. In June of 2013 while competing on the Korn Ferry Tour, Bramlett suffered an annular tear to his L4 and L5 discs, which is a painful and debilitating injury. He consulted 15 spinal surgeons who offered a unanimous opinion: an operation would more than likely end his career. For three-plus years, as he sought an answer, he would rest, try to rehab, even try to play a bit, and then suffer a setback. Dark days turned into many dark months. “Yeah, I’ve had those moments,” he said of the emotional toll his injury was inflicting. 

His fortunes finally turned thanks to swing instructor John Scott Rattan, who works out of Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md., and physical therapist Cody Fowler, based in Los Gatos, Calif., about 20 minutes from Bramlett’s home in San Jose. Without going into too many details, Rattan helped Bramlett rebuild his swing so he used his feet and hips properly, and Fowler worked on his flexibility, which was the source of his problems.

Bramlett missed 4½ years which begs the question, How did a player, who in 2002 was the youngest player to qualify for the U.S. Amateur, remain so determined after so much time and so many setbacks? He had only one season on the PGA Tour, in 2011, lost his card and was in his second year on the developmental tour when he blew out his back. He did try an aborted comeback in 2016, but that lasted all of three events. He never lost belief. And he steadfastly refused to let his dreams die. Bramlett is now 31. That’s prime.

He’s played four events this year and made the cut in three of them. Last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he finished T18th. Last year, he earned PGA TOUR membership for the first season since 2011 by finishing No. 22 in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals 25 and entered the 2019-20 season 45th in the final priority ranking. On the season, Bramlett collected two top-10s and made 15 cuts in 23 starts. Dude is gaining steam only nobody is noticing. He’s also spent a lot of time in these parts so it would not surprise if he knows this course well. He chose to play in this event and that alone says he likes his chances to compete well. Watch closely (Risking 0.2 units to win 80 units).    

Cameron Smith 90-1

He is a scrambler and a grinder, and already Cameron Smith has shown a penchant for life at Riviera with four made cuts and a best of T6. Like many Aussies, Smith has great hands and is happy playing a number of different styles of chip shot into fast greens, a skill that can come in very handy at this stretch. There are still holes in his game, but the 26-year-old is at his best when hitting long approaches and making magic happen when he does miss the green. C Smith ranks 9th ON TOUR in SG: Putting, 19th in Birdie Average and 39th in Approaches from 150-175 yards (Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units). 

 ----------------------------------------------------------

Head-to-head Matchups for the Genesis Invitational

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365 or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

H2H

7002 Patrick Cantlay -107 over Tiger Woods Pinnacle

Tiger Woods is to golf what Wayne Gretzky was to hockey but Tiger is no longer in his prime while Patrick Cantlay is. The fact that we get Cantlay evenly priced against Tiger is not only a reflection of the market’s fascination with Tiger but it’s the bargain of the H2H’s. 

Cantlay ranks second ON TOUR in par-4 scoring and the Long Beach native has solved Riviera the last two years, finishing T-4 and T-15. Stalled on the weekend at Pebble Beach and finished T-11 but is 47 under in four Tour starts in 2019-20. If you make one H2H wager this week, this should be it (Risking 2.14 units to win 2). 

Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Adam Scott (Bet365)

In six starts at Riviera since 2012, he’s finished outside the top 20 only once. That’s nice it really is and because of his great history at this course,  Scott is overvalued. We’re more interested in current form and in that regard, Matsuyama should be a bigger price. Scott’s erratic driving (213th strokes gained) has been a sore spot this season and he hasn’t played a tournament anywhere since winning the Australian Open in December. It never surprises when he plays well but a rusty Scott cannot be evenly priced against Matsuyama. 

That Matsuyama is 15th in the FedEx Cup and 23rd in the world reflects his immense talent because every time we see him on TV, it feels like he’s missing another short putt (177th strokes gained). Top 15 in the two critical strokes gained ball striking stats and top 11 in three of last four trips to Riviera, Matuyama is a hot putter away from winning or finishing top-5 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).  

Jordan Spieth -120 over Phil Mickelson (Bet365)

Lefty had a big run last week at Pebble Beach and that’s a taxing course for an aging golfer. Throw in the emotional toll and extreme focus of being on the leaderboard for the entire event and it would be surprising to us to see Phil finish ahead of an extremely focused Jordan Spieth. 

Whisper it, but there were some excellent signs for Jordan Spieth in the AT&T Pebble Beach tournament. He was the best player in the field on Sunday, scoring -5 in tough conditions, and in the 36 holes played at Pebble Beach he led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. Okay, so that doesn’t mean a whole bunch in the grand scheme of things, but courses like Riviera suit Spieth. Two top-10s and a T12 here indicate his liking for the layout, and its relative similarity to Augusta – to the eye at least – suggests Spieth’s renaissance could continue at pace in the Palisades (Risking 2.4 units to win 2.00 units). 

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright.

Collin Morikawa 60-1

Consistently one of the best tee-to-green merchants around at the moment, Collin Morikawa is better placed than most to tame Riviera. This is his first visit to the course, and so some caution is advised, but for a Californian playing on home soil at a layout where his skill set is well treated, that should be enough to get the juices flowing. Having ranked inside the top-10 for his ball striking at the Tournament of Champions, Sony Open and the Phoenix Open, Morikawa is simply a good week with the putter away from contending right now

Sungjae Im 55-1

Im ranks 8th ON TOUR in strokes gained on the par 4s and No. 1 in scoring on par 4s measuring 400-450 yards. Enjoyed a rare off week after Scottsdale. Has made the cut in all 11 Tour starts this season.

Branden Grace 80-1

The good times have returned for Branden Grace. T3 at the Alfred Dunhill Championship, he followed up by winning his home South African Open. And the momentum continued with another top-20 in the desert on the European Tour followed by T9 at the Phoenix Open. A missed cut at Pebble Beach halted the run but we don’t have to read too much into that: pro-am golf isn’t for everyone, and of course there was something of a draw bias in play, as the wind picked up over the weekend. Riviera looks like a classic South African golf course, Kikuyu grass is native to South Africa and so Grace should feel right at home in the Pacific Palisades. He ranks 18th ON TOUR in Approaches from 150-175 yards and 28th in Greens in Regulation.

Corey Conners 125-1

He makes his debut here at Riviera otherwise he probably would’ve made out “picks to win”. Perhaps it is the right time to buy because Connors is too good to be priced in this range. What we know for sure is that his ball-striking is magnificent. The Canuck is playing up to his pedigree, and then some. Six top 20s in eight starts this season make him very worthy of some consideration.

RESULTS:

5 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -1 unit x

Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Adam Scott (Bet365) -2.2 units x

Patrick Cantlay -107 over Tiger Woods +2 units ✔

Jordan Spieth -120 over Phil Mickelson +2 units ✔

Therefore, 4 units in wins - 3.2 units in losses = a net profit of 0.8 units for this event, 

-----------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

Get all the details here

-----------------------------------------------------

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.