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Posted Wednesday, February 5 at 4:30 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is February 6 at 9:00 AM EST. 

AT&T Pebble Beach

The Kansas City Chiefs rose like Lazarus to see off the 49ers on Super Bowl Sunday, and Webb Simpson produced a performance of immense character himself to land the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Finau, who made just two bogeys all week, must be scratching his head and wondering what it is he has to do to win a ‘proper’ PGA TOUR event. He’ll go away and do some thinking while a huge field of pros and amateurs convenes at three pieces of golfing real estate in Monterey, California for the AT&T Pebble Beach.

The eponymous Pebble Beach is the headline-maker, and it remains one of the most sumptuous golf courses in the world. Its greenkeepers tend to be in a good mood for this pro-am event, and will shave the rough and run-off areas to ensure that nobody comes to any major harm. That means its smiles on faces and bombs away this week, which may explain why Phil Mickelson has won five times on the Pebble Beach links. There’s nothing to fear from the other two courses on the rotation either. Spyglass Hill has more trees than the others but is still plenty easy enough at its sub-7000 yard mark, while Monterey Shore must be a joy to play: so short, so easy, so clearly where our champion this week will post a low one.

Since this trio of courses has been in operation, the roll call of winners here includes Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker, Vaughn Taylor, Jimmy Walker, Jordan Spieth and Ted Potter Jr. What do they have in common? We’ve absolutely no idea but clearly making plenty of putts will be of great benefit at a course where anyone can shoot low numbers.

What We’re Looking For This Week

There are so many ways to win this tournament that making successful choices becomes a fun, if difficult, venture. Because the rough is down, no driver is precluded from enjoying the fruits of their labor. Of course, you’d expect longer hitters to have an advantage, but then the likes of Brandt Snedeker, Vaughn Taylor and D.A. Points have won here, so shorter hitters can’t be excluded either. With such small greens we’d expect the best in the business on approach to thrive, but with the cross winds even they will be missing the dance floor on occasion. One characteristic your picks will need to have on side is Poa Annua putting, and an ability to thrive in windy, Links style conditions. On the whole, you’re looking for good all-rounders who can get hot with the flat stick and who won’t get frustrated with the obvious distractions that playing with amateurs of all ability levels brings.

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To Win Outright:

Adam Hadwin 50-1

There was a decent return for Adam Hadwin at the Phoenix Open in his first start since becoming a new father. Opening up 69-67 at TPC Scottsdale, the Canadian drifted away over the weekend, which was perhaps the result of ring rust as much as anything else. It’s an intense place to make your return, so we expect Hadwin to be looking forward to the laid back charms of this pro-am event, where he can continue his return to top form. T18 here a year ago, Hadwin historically plays good golf on the west coast and is comfortable putting on Poa Annua, so he’s certainly worth a look at Pebble Beach (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units).    

Patrick Rodgers 80-1

A streaky putter who gets a hot hand from time to time, Patrick Rodgers backed up a T9 return from the Farmers Insurance Open with T16 at the Phoenix Open last time out. He was also in fine fettle on the Poa Annua of Torrey Pines two weeks ago, and while there’s more to golf than just putting, it certainly helps in pro-am events like this – where Rodgers has been T8 in the past. Rodgers gained +1.51 strokes on the field off tee at TPC Southwind, so if he can drive well on these three courses – and drain some putts – Rodgers can go very low indeed. Rodgers ranks 13th ON TOUR in SG: Putting and 19th in Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

Harry Higgs 110-1

We played HH last week and we’re going to continue with him here, as he could pop at any time. Having gained strokes on the field from tee-to-green in a number of his recent outings, Harry Higgs served up the curious-but-intriguing stat of leading the way in SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale If he can put both departments together….well, you know the rest, and we’re interested to see how Higgs fares given that he has good form in the locker on similar windy, seaside layouts. Higgs seemed very relaxed and light-hearted when playing the notorious 16th hole last week, and that happy-go-lucky style suggests he can thrive in this rare pro-am atmosphere too. Harry ranks 14th ON TOUR in Total Driving and 40th in Scrambling (Risking 0.2 units to 22 units).

Zac Blair 225-1

With sunny weather in the forecast this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Zac Blair should be licking his chops. All three courses in the tournament rotation measure under 7,000 yards, and Zac has some solid vibes to fall back on. The last time Zac was in action was two weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open, where Blair recorded the fewest number of bogeys of anyone in the field. Early in 2020, Blair already has a T$ at the Safeway Open, a T14th at Mayakoba Golf Classic and a T21 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Nothing about the way he hits the golf ball is going to impress anyone on tour, but the way he played in the fall portion of the season suggests he’s on the verge of doing something special. Lurking at a small price on DFS and a big price to win outright, this 29-year-old that is reaching his prime and guaranteed at least three rounds, is absolutely worth rolling the dice on (Risking 0.2 units to win 45 units).

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Head-to-head Matchups for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365 or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

H2H

#7011 - Kurt Kitayama -107 over J.B. Holmes (Pinnacle)

Raise your hand if you’ve heard of Kurt Kitayama. Now raise your hand if you’ve heard of J.B. Holmes. We’re not sure how many people are going to read this but it will be in the thousands and we’d be willing to bet that 100% of you have heard of JB Holmes. Perhaps 40% or less have heard of Kurt Kitayama. The point is that JB Holmes has market presence and he’s in good form. Holmes was on the front page of the leaderboard last week for three days before a poor Sunday prevented him from a top-10 finish. At Pebble Beach, Holmes has a T2, a T10 and T11 to his name. You see him mentioned often in many expert picks this week and that’s usually the best time to sell. Holmes also finished T16 at Torrey Pines with progressively higher scores (after starting with 68 on the South Course). It was his first top-50 finish in a full-field event in seven months. We love that Pinnacle has Holmes as an enticing play against a pro with little market credibility.

Kitayama has impressed more than one educated eye. Swing coach Pete Cowen calls him “a player with great potential,” remarking particularly on the diminutive American’s prodigious length off the tee. “He’s fast, and that is a great thing to be in modern golf,” Cowen says. Former European Tour player turned TV pundit Jay Townsend is another fan of his young compatriot’s all-around game. “I’ve watched Kurt quite a bit, and he looks like a player to me,” Townsend says. “He moves it out there off the tee and holes out particularly well. He seems to have no fear. Maybe the only mild criticism I would level at him is that he struggles a bit in a strong left-to-right wind. He plays pretty much everything with a fade. His go-to shot is a left-to-right bomb.” Kitayama is a fast-learner, though. And he is just as quick to acknowledge the debt he owes to the ever-varying conditions found on the European Tour. “My game has changed and improved by adjusting to everywhere I’ve been,” he says. “I’ve definitely learned how to play different courses, especially links. That was really different for me. One time I used my 3-wood for a shot just off the green. I never do anything like that in the States. So I’ve been learning new shots all the time. My game has just grown.” Kitayama has very few events under his name on the main tour but Pinnacle had no issue matching him up against a well-known pro in good form with a good history at this event. Backing JB Holmes has sucker written all over it. (Risking 2.14 units to win 2.00).

Adam Hadwin +100 over Russell Knox (BET365)

After missed cuts in 2017 and 2018 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Knox finished T10 with four others at 10 under last year. However, back in the two years that he missed the cut, Knox had played four weeks in a row and that’s the situation with him here. Too much golf and not enough rest and one is bound to have a bad week. Furthermore, Russell Knox has not missed a cut in eight straight events so that streak is in line to be broken too. 

We wrote about Adam Hadwin above and if we like his chances to win this event, we certainly like his chances to finish ahead of Russell Knox. If you can find a wager that says Knox will miss the cut, you could get great odds but for now, we'll step in confidently on Hadwin to finsih ahead of him.

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright.

Matthew Fitzpatrick – 25-1 (Our Horse for the Course)

Dustin Johnson is going to demand loads of attention at the top of the price sheet, and we’re certain that Patrick Cantlay and Paul Casey will be popular plays as well. We see the defending champion (Phil Mickelson) sitting at $9,500 as well. This should leave the door open for you to be among the few who decide to head your AT&T Pebble Beach fantasy lineup with Matthew Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is ranked in the top 25 in the world, and he’s finished inside of the top 10 in five of his last seven starts across the globe. Additionally, Matt finished 12th at last summer’s U.S. Open held at Pebble Beach, and it’s also worth noting that his putting stroke is as “syrupy” as it gets.

Max Homa 55-1

With back-to-back top-10s on the West Coast Swing, we can back Max Homa to follow-up with the hat-trick this week. His driving of the golf ball particularly impressed at TPC Scottsdale, but he also showed a safe hand with the putter – notably, he also putted well on the Poa Annua at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. Anyone that follows him on social media will know that Homa is a fun, laid back kind of guy, and he can thrive in the pro-am environment where others can blow their chances by losing focus watching their amateur partners go about their business. 

Tom Hoge 66-1

Last week Tom Hoge finished T25 at the Phoenix Open. That continued his fine form of late. Below-par rounds followed good ones, but one thing that has been consistent about Hoge of late has been his putting stroke – he’s gained +1.00 or more on the field in each of his last three starts. Given that he’s an accomplished iron player, Hoge can set up plenty of birdie opportunities this week – if he rolls a few in, he can contend once more.

Results:
4 to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -0.8 units

H2H

Hadwin +100 over Knox +2 units

Kitayama -107 over J.B. Holmes -2.14 units

Therefore 2.94 units in losses - 2 units in wins = a net loss of 0.94 units for this event.

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