PGA Wagers
Phoenix Open

BEST LINES: Pinnacle  SportsInteraction  5DIMES

Posted Wednesday, January 29 at 3:00 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is January 23 at 7:10 AM EST. 

The Waste Management Preview 

When Marc Leishman is hot, boy can the Aussie make some big ones. Dude  gained a whopping +4.78 strokes on the field on Sunday at Torrey Pines to finally claim a title that has eluded him for so long. Incidentally, that’s two Aussie winners on the PGA TOUR since the bushfires that ravaged the country, while Lucas Herbert won on the European Tour last week as well. As savvy DFS gamers and bettors, we have to ask if that’s a coincidence or a narrative that needs exploring further. Intriguingly, the whole approach of backing tee-to-green merchants to get hot with the putter should also come to the fore this week at TPC Scottsdale, home of the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This really is one of the most unique environments that the sport has to offer, and with the best generally rising to the top here we can expect another week of outstanding golf to enjoy.

If TPC Scottsdale was a comic book character, it would almost certainly be Two-Face from the Batman franchise. That’s because the front nine – and the first 14 holes all told – play out in pretty benign fashion, with average width fairways and smooth Bermuda greens scarcely protected by any hazards of note.

When the pros hit the 15th, well, this is where things get interesting. This is a reachable Par 5 that offers the classic ‘risk and reward’ conundrum, with a water hazard flaking the entire left-hand side of the hole from tee box to green. Then we have the 16th, the ‘Colosseum’ as it is known, which is a rather intense amphitheater where the players are surrounded by grandstands packed with the kind of patrons you’d expect at a rock concert rather than a golf tournament.

The 17h is a drivable Par 4, although watch out for the sand and water left and right, while the 18th is a knee-knocker too: will you lay up and take par, or attack the green despite the trouble that lurks all around?

This 7,266 yard, Par 71 course offers one of the most electrifying closing stretches of a golf course anywhere in the world, so we can thank designers Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris for that.

What We’re Looking For This Week

This is one of those tough weeks where there is no cut-and-shut profile of a winne, apart from playing excellent golf, that is. However, if we look at the identities of the last four champions at TPC Scottsdale – Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Hideki Matsuyama (x2) and Brooks Koepka – obvious comparisons can be drawn.

They are all outstanding golfers, for one thing, whose strength undoubtedly comes from tee-to-green. Maybe they are better placed to thrive on the pressure-packed last four holes, too. Like Leishman last week, flushing the ball is one thing but making putts is quite another, thus,  he ideal recipe is somebody who combines both at TPC Scottsdale.

Given the scorable nature of some of the holes here, especially those that can be driven under regulation, there is a clamor for long hitters but remember Scottsdale plays at altitude, albeit a small one, so even shorter drivers get a bit of a boost. There is a narrative we come back to year-after-year when shortlisting players for the Phoenix Open: the incredible correlation between this event, the Memorial and the Honda Classic. This was strengthened last year by Fowler, who has now won here and the Honda, while finishing second in the Memorial. And then there’s Woodland (winner here and T2 Honda), Matsuyama (won both Phoenix and the Memorial), Kyle Stanley (winner here and T2 at Memorial), Jason Dufner (winner of the Memorial and T2 here) and Ryan Palmer (T2 here and at the Honda). Some narratives in golf are pure coincidence, but this one seems to have plenty of substance about it.

-------------------------------------------------------

To Win Outright:

Corey Connors  66-1 

In this space, we have made some rather bold proclamations about Corey Conners, who we see as a major winner in waiting. He will need to iron out some flaws in his game, but the Canadian is an outstanding ball-striker who continues to attract interest at layouts such as TPC Scottsdale. With six top-25 finishes in seven starts this season, Conners has got plenty of form in the bag, and arguably he saved his best for last: a round of 66 on the Sunday at Waialae when it was blowing a gale. When straight hitting really becomes a premium, Conners tends to shine, and he can do so again in Arizona this week. Connors ranks 14th in Shots Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee, 30th in SG: Approach and 36th in Scoring Average (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2). 

Tom Hoge 100-1 

The revelatory form of Tom Hoge continues. Not only has he finished solo fifth at the Farmers Insurance Open and T6 at the American Express, Hoge has done it in such impressive tee-to-green fashion that this formline really is sustainable. You can also throw in solo second at the Greenbrier and T12 at the Sony Open for good measure, and with his ball-striking at an outstanding level there’s no reason that TPC Scottsdale won’t suit Hoge down to a tee. Tom Hoge ranks 19th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green. 23rd in Scoring Average and 25th in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders. Those are the stats of someone on the verge of a win (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units).

Harry Higgs 160-1

Some Korn Ferry Tour graduates blast their way onto the main tour, while others adopt a more softly, softly approach. Harry Higgs is in the latter camp, but he is really starting to catch the eye with some classy performances. T19 on debut at the Greenbrier, Higgs could and possibly should have won the Bermuda Championship a few weeks later. But his best start yet surely came at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he delivered a sublime tee-to-green performance on his first look at Torrey Pines to finish T9. This is a young guy who appears to have a bright future, so let’s get him on board while we still can at such an agreeable price. Higgs also has the numbers to prove how undervalued he is, as he ranks 16th ON TOUR in Total Driving, 27th in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 35th in Scoring Average (Risking 0.2 units to win 32 units). 

Adam Hadwin 90-1

This is one of those picks that comes from the odds as much as anything. That said, Adam Hadwin has two things going for him: he’s a supreme flusher of a golf ball, and he’s just become a father – maybe the much-hyped ‘nappy factor’ will come into play for the Canadian. A resident of Scottsdale, Hadwin will also benefit from good memories here having finished T1 and T17 in two of his last four visits. He’s enjoyed plenty of time away while on nappy-changing duty, but TPC Scottsdale suits Hadwin’s game to a fault.Some of Hadwin’s key stats are:

SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th

SG: Putting – 26th

Scoring Average – 31s

(Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units). 

Sebastian Munoz 160-1

All golf bettors and DFS gamers have their pet projects that they refuse to give up on, and right now Sebastian Munoz is becoming interesting to us. In his last six starts the Colombian’s formline reads MC-21-MC-17-MC-3, and that only goes to sum up the frustration of backing a player who has already won this season at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Munoz continues to put up some excellent tee-to-green numbers, and so we can only hope we’ve got him here on one of his good weeks rather than the bad. Because if we have, he’s a fine player who can outperform his paltry salary and sportsbook odds (Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).

----------------------------------------------------------

Head-to-head Matchups for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365 or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

H2H

Scottie Scheffler -102 over Brandt Snedeker

Snedeker is coming off a very good showing last week where he was showcased all weekend long because he was on the leaderboard. He’s drawn attention to himself and now becomes a decent fade target after being so close last week. Additionally, Sneds hasn’t thrived at this course.  

Since the current definition of a rookie was introduced early in the 2013 season, no healthy true rookie has survived more than eight consecutive cuts to start a season. Furthermore, Scottie Scheffler is the fourth of the last five seasons to go 8-for-8 before his first MC. Last season, Cameron Champ opened with seven straight cuts made before missing his first at the Farmers. The point is to not put emphasis on his missed cut at Torrey Pines. 

Given how well he has started his maiden PGA TOUR season, there is plenty of encouragement to continue siding with Scottie Scheffler. A two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019, Scheffler went close at the American Express in his penultimate start – a final round of 70 ultimately proving to be his undoing there. But that was a fourth top-10 finish in nine starts on the main tour, and that is the sort of trajectory we’re looking for at TPC Scottsdale, where the cream tends to rise to the top. He won’t have experienced anything quite like the 16th hole here, but hopefully the exuberance of youth means he can escape unscathed and kick on in his customary tee-to-green fashion. Scheffler can play aggressively again this week, so his combination of power and precision tee to green projects to spark a new consecutive cuts-made streak (Risking 2.04 units to win 2). 

Daniel Berger +106 over Russell Knox

After missed cuts in 2017 and 2018 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Knox finished T10 with four others at 10 under last year. However, back in the two years that he missed the cut, Knox had played four weeks in a row and that’s the situation with him here. Too much golf and not enough rest and one is bound to have a bad week. Furthermore, Russell Knox has not missed a cut in eight straight events so that streak is in line to be broken too. 

With two top-10s and a T11 in five visits, TPC Scottsdale’s unique assignment is one that seems to suit Daniel Berger. His current formline is shaping up nicely too ahead of his latest trip, with only one missed cut in his last six starts and his last six rounds all played in the 60s. Remember when Berger was thought to be the next bright young kid of the never-ending American golf talent conveyor belt? It hasn’t quite worked out as planned for the now 26-year-old, but he seems to be getting his act together of late. That, ahead of a trip to one of his favorite golf courses, catches our eye (Risking 2 units to win 2.12).

Others to consider:

Bryson DeChambeau 

When we were drawing up our shortlist for our Phoenix Open picks, Collin Morikawa was the player we *expected* to draft. But then DraftKings released their salaries, and we were gobsmacked to see Bryson DeChambeau available at $9,100. The former Memorial Tournament winner was last in action in the desert of Dubai last week, and he was well on course to win out there before the wind got up to 25mph and his concentration lapsed when given a slow play warning. But it was a return to form for the newly-buff shot-maker, who finished T5 in his sole visit to TPC Scottsdale two years ago. He’ll get a rough ride on 16th, that’s for sure, but Bryson is a better player than many above him in the salary listings this week. Play or fad. 

Sam Burns 

There are many shrewd judges who believe that Sam Burns can make a breakthrough on the PGA TOUR this year. The 23-year-old has shown glimpses of excellent golf, not least in his T6 at the American Express a couple of weeks ago. He found Torrey Pines a bit more taxing last week, but still returned an okay T49 return, and on a more forgiving golf course like TPC Scottsdale he should be able to shine once again. It’s a gamble that could pay off because he’s in the 200-1 range and doesn’t figure to be on many DFS rosters.

Keegan Bradley

At the Farmers Insurance Open, Marc Leishman proved that when premium ball-strikers get things right with the putter they can take some stopping. So step forward the much-maligned Keegan Bradley, whose fumblings with the flat stick generally tend to be club hacker, rather than major champion. And yet, a major champion Bradley is, and the eagle-eyed will have noted that he gained +2.08 strokes on the field with the putter on Sunday. Going under the radar once more, the 33-year-old has five top-25 finishes in eight starts this term, and rounds of 66 at blustery Waialae and last week at Torrey Pines confirm a player rounding up towards his best form.

------------Total risk is 5.04 units and we'll update at end of event----------------

Results

5 golfers to win @ 0.2 units each = -1 unit

H2H

Daniel Berger +106 over Russell Knox

Scottie Scheffler -102 over Brandt Snedeker

Therefore 4.12 units in win 1 unit in losses = a net profit of 3.12 units for this event. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks. 



Our Pick

Phoenix Open (Risking 5.04 units - To Win: 0.00)