RESULT:
-0.8 units on 4 golfers to win outright

+3 units on Justin Thomas to beat Jordan Spieth

NET WIN +2.2 units

BEST LINES: Pinnacle  SportsInteraction  5DIMES 888Sport BET365

Posted Wednesday, June 12 at 12:45 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is June 20th at 7:00 AM EST. 

The Travelers Championship Course Preview

A week after a major, we certainly wouldn’t expect to see such a high-quality field as this teeing up – especially when the start of their week involves a trip from California to Connecticut.

TPC River Highlands may well have had a thorough re-work courtesy of the vaunted Pete Dye, but this is not by any means one of his more classic layouts. In fact, it plays pretty easily: Jim Furyk’s 58, Patrick Cantlay’s 60 and various other rounds of 61 have been posted in the past couple of years and a few others will likely slay it this week. As you might expect from a course where Bubba Watson has dominated (three wins here) there is an emphasis on shaping your shots off the tee – there are tree lines and doglegs to navigate – but missing in the right place is absolutely fine with rough on the thin and friendly side.

This is a short track at 6,841 yards for its Par 70, and so nobody is discounted here. With perfect, receptive Bentgrass greens to find, this could turn into something of a putting contest with a winning likely to be in the -20 or better range.

Water is only an issue on four holes, and three of those come at the ‘Golden Triangle’ from 15 through 17. These holes feature approaches hit over or adjacent to a lake, but it’s unlikely many will find the drink this week – wind permitting. There was some rain on Tuesday with a little more rain in the forecast today (Wednesday), however, with minimal wind to dry surfaces out and temperatures in the low 70s, the greens could be particularly receptive this week.

What We’re Looking For This Week

This is a tough week but we’re going to delve into it because the week after a major often produces a longshot winner. The historic stats at TPC River Highlands don’t particularly reveal anything of note, and the roll call of recent winners here – Bubba x2, Spieth, Knox, Streelman and Duke – hardly delivers any insight either. We know that Bubba whacks it miles off the tee while missing fairways as, to a lesser extent, does Spieth, while Knox and Streelman tend to be completely at the other end of the driving distance/accuracy spectrum. And Ken Duke? Well, answers on a postcard. There isn’t anything particularly Pete Dye about River Highlands either, so that’s another angle down the drain, and with players having to travel across the country to get to Connecticut, there’s the spectre of travel weariness to consider.

So what do we know? Well, this is a course with plenty of tree-lined fairways and doglegs, so somebody comfortable shaping their shots both ways is a must. There are only two Par 5s too, which means that Par 4 Scoring will be at a premium. If there is rain around and the greens are slowed, this will be a case of making lots of birdies through a simple point-and-click iron and wedge game. There could be some serious mental letdowns or fatigue from those that played four rounds at the U.S. Open and traveled to Connecticut to play in this event.

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To Win Outright:

Sungjae Im 75-1

A period in the doldrums appears to be over for Im, who ended a quiet couple of months with a T7 finish at the Canadian Open last time out. That strong showing, and others at Copperhead and Bay Hill, offers the suggestion that doglegging, tree-lined tracks are where the youngster feels most at home, and so we’re certainly willing to give him a whirl this week. And why not -- the Korean has six top-10 finishes to his name on the PGA TOUR this term, and that marks him out as one of the premier performers around in 2019. He’s consistent, he ranks top 30 in so many categories (Birdie Average, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Around-the-Green among others) and it’s a perfect setup with him being off last week and remaining on the East Coast (Risking 0.2 units to win 15 units).

Andrew Putnam 90-1

Sometimes, the right track comes along at the right time for certain players. For Andrew Putnam, an ‘easy’ Par 70 is where he is perhaps most likely to win his first ‘proper’ PGA TOUR title (he won the Barracuda Championship last season), and with form in the tank, TPC River Highlands appears at an opportune moment. He ranks inside the top-15 on Tour for both Par 3 and 4 Birdie Leaders, and as one of the shorter hitters around it’s no surprise to learn he’s less prolific on the Par 5s – hence why Par 70s suit. T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T17 in the Memorial, Putnam was red hot on the greens at Pebble Beach, and if he takes a hot putter to the other side of the US he could pull this off. Although we’re trying to avoid those that played the U.S Open, Putnam is still very much under the radar, as the networks rarely show a shot or putt of his but dude can play and he can win. Putnam ranks 2nd ON TOUR in SG: Putting and 15th in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders (Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).

Sebastian Munoz 125-1

Of his last eight rounds on the PGA TOUR, four have been 66 or better. All in all, six of those have been in the 60s, and that has led to a T10 and T11 finishes in the Byron Nelson and Canadian Open respectively, which is an excellent lead-in form for this one. The Colombian is another who enjoys a birdie-fest – his career low round is 61 – and if his recent hot streak continues, there is a great chance we could see him on the first page of the leaderboard on the weekend. Munoz ranks 14th ON TOUR in SG: Around-the-Green and 45th in Birdie Average (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Sepp Straka 200-1

Sepp Straka has been lingering on leaderboards despite lacking consistency. In eight rounds between the U.S. Open and the RBC Canadian Open, he had three individual rounds gaining more than four strokes on the field. If he strings together three of those rounds in a single tournament, he's going to find himself in contention. Straka is doing the bulk of his damage tee to green and can be somewhat trusted in this field, as he ranks 16th in strokes gained: Approach. Given his ability to click for a single round, also consider him in the first round leader market at +100-1. We’re going to split it up and bet 0.1 units (to win 10) on him to be leading after the first round  and 0.1 units on him to pull it off and win outright at 200-1 for a 20 unit win.

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Head-to-head Matchups for the Travelers

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365,  5DIMES or 888sport

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP below is for 72 holes:

H2H

Justin Thomas -120 over Jordan Spieth (BET365)

JT missed the cut at the U.S. Open, thus, he has a two day start on Jordan Spieth and he’s also the superior pro. JT is also very unlikely to miss two cuts in a row while Spieth is not only in poor form and has been wildly inconsistent for close to three years, he has other demons to battle as well.

Social media was buzzing with negative comments about Jordan Spieth all weekend long at the U.S. Open. Thousands and thousands of tweets calling him the “least liked pro, “a whiny baby”, a “dickhead”, “a massive arsehole” and more. Jordan Spieth not only has to work on his game, but he also has to work on being more likeable. He’s good TV but all the negative exposure cannot be good for his mindset. Spieth now has to travel from California to Connecticut after a horrible Sunday at Pebble Beach. Was that horrible Sunday due to the negativity surrounding his character? Pressure because of it perhaps? And what about his game? He ranks 197th in Driving Accuracy, 172nd in Greens In Regulation (GIR), 182nd in SG: Off the Tee and 143rd in SG: Approach. Spieth is also 55th in FedEx Cup points.

Again, JT got two extra days off ahead of this event and is still one of the best golfers on the planet but the media much prefers discussing Tiger, Phil, Spieth, McIlroy and others ahead of this classy pro. JT ranks 15th in FedEx Cup points, which is 40 positions higher than Spieth. Thomas also ranks 30th ON TOUR in SG: Off the Tee, 11th in SG: Around the Tee, 8th in SG: Approach the Green, 2nd in Birdie Average, 1st in Eagles, 3rd in GIR, 11th in Scoring Average and the list goes on and on. Last week we pointed out that Brooks Koepka was a steal over Tiger Woods in the H2H at the US Open, not because of the result (Koepka blew him away) but because the price is not reflective of the form/talent discrepancy. This one is the same deal. Yeah, Spieth can beat JT because one can never take the human element out of anything but it’s a tremendous value play and one we would strongly recommend 100% of the time right now. JT is vastly superior but this price has them near even. That’s preposterous. Once again, no reason to bet any other H2H’s (Risking 3.6 units to win 3).

• The total risk for this event is 4.40 units and we'll update the results when it's official.

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Others to consider for DFS or to win outright:

HORSE: Bryson DeChambeau

What a difference six months can make in golf. Back then, Bryson had established himself as one of the most prolific winners around, with his scientific approach – once the source of much scorn – earning him rave reviews from those seeking a bold new world in golf. A dry spell has seen his stock fall, mind you, and this week he is just 10th in the salary listings. That’s fine by us. One gets the sense that DeChambeau is a player that thrives on confidence – don’t we all – and he was speaking very positively about his game at Pebble Beach. Improvements on the greens, coupled with his standard excellence off the tee are what makes him such a prolific champion, and in easy birdie-fests on Bentgrass where there is little to separate the field, Bryson’s ‘X factor’ could well be the difference-maker. He ranks 4th ON TOUR in Total Driving, 9th Birdie Average and 33rd in SG: Putting.

Kevin Streelman 66-1

It’s been an excellent couple of months for Streelman, who has banked three top-10 finishes in his last five stroke-play starts. Most surprising is that they have come at wholly disparate courses: TPC San Antonio (Texas Open), Muirfield Village (Memorial Tournament) and Harbour Town (RBC Heritage). What does that tell us? It confirms that Streelman is playing excellent golf that travels. We’ll trust that such good form will travel to River Highlands, where he won back in 2014. The sort of confidence a player gets from returning to the scene of a former triumph can often be the catalyst for another strong showing.

C.T. Pan 100-1

We had expected a big showing from Pan at Pebble Beach, a course which in theory should have suited, but he really did struggle on the west coast. Experience tells us not to ditch a player after one parlous week, however, and having won at a Pete Dye layout already this season, the man from China Taipei is one who could go low once again. Playing at an easier course than Pebble Beach helps, and his strong showing at Colonial a short while ago – a track not all too dissimilar to TPC River Highlands – certainly raises spirits.

Mackenzie Hughes 125-1

The good times have returned of late for the Canadian, who has T8 (Charles Schwab Challenge) and T14 (Canadian Open) finishes to his name in his last pair of starts. Unlike many in the field this week, he won’t have to slog his way across the country from California having missed out on the US Open, and while it’s quite possible that somebody who competed at Pebble Beach will win this week, clearly NOT having to make that journey is something of an advantage. Top 20 finishes both here and at Sawgrass suggest an affinity with Pete Dye designs, and with form in the locker, Hughes is one of those guys who can far outperform their odds and salary this week.

Matthew Wolff 110-1 College teammates at Oklahoma State, Viktor Hovland and Wolff are priced the same or shorter than established pros with actual Tour wins under their belts, and that should tell you everything you need to know. Wolff is the outright value at a much better price despite having just smoked Hovland in the NCAA individual championship by 12 strokes. Both could be played but the value is on Wolff, as Hovland was shown dozens of times on Fox’s coverage of the U.S. Open last week while Wolff was getting ready for this event. If you can find a H2H, Wolff v Hovland, bet Wolff and let me know where you found it.  

Mix and match any or all of the above with your own to create a DFS roster

RESULT:
-0.8 units on 4 golfers to win outright

+3 units on Justin Thomas to beat Jordan Spieth

NET WIN +2.2 units

 

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