Arnold Palmer Invitational
PGA Wagers

BEST LINES: Pinnacle  SportsInteraction  5DIMES

Posted Wednesday, March 3 at 2:30 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is March 4 at 7:00 AM EST. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational

 

When he purchased the facility in 1976, Arnold Palmer got his hands on a rather nondescript layout but thanks to his dedication and eye for what makes a great track, the King turned Bay Hill into a layout that has hosted a flagship PGA TOUR event for four decades. One of the most recent overhauls, which came in 2014, saw fairways widened and trees removed, and the previously very tough track became much easier, with winning scores of -11, -17, -18 and -19 a testament to that. There are still plenty of challenges awaiting the players at this 7,419 yard Par 72. Water is in play on 10 holes, and there are lots of bunkers peppering the layout. Doglegging holes also test the ball striking and course management skills of the field.

 

The Bermuda greens, which are a decent size and tend to run at a steady 11.5 on the stimp, offer up no major problems. So what are the layout’s key defenses? Well, the wind tends to be a factor, as it often does in Florida events and mention should also be made of the four Par 3s: these measure a lengthy 199, 215, 221 and 231 yards respectively. That said, each of the quartet of Par 5s can be breached in three by most in the field, so knowing when to strike – and when to batten down the hatches – is key at Bay Hill.

--------------------------------------------------------

 

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this Week

 

 

DraftKings have already published some of the details of their slate for THE PLAYERS Championship next week, which includes a $1m ‘Fifth Major’ special. The good news is that they haven’t glossed over the Arnold Palmer Invitational with an almost as lucrative slate!

 

PGA $600k Drive the Green: An extra $100k has been added to the Drive the Green contest this week, which means the winner will trouser a cool $150k for their $5 buy in!

 

PGA $350k Pressure Putt: If you have a steady $444 sitting in your bankroll then this could be the contest to roll it out for: you could win $100k, with just 874 other teams to battle it out against.

--------------------------------------------------------

 What to look out for:

Is it any coincidence that Rory McIlroy won so well 12 months ago while ranking first for Driving Distance? Perhaps, perhaps not, but one thing that he shares with previous winners Marc Leishman and Jason Day is that they – on their day – all hit the ball straight and a long way too. There is a certain premium on finding fairways – McIlroy hit 64% last year – and that’s because strong putters have also thrived at Bay Hill, so ideally, one needs to be getting approaches as close as possible.

 

There are two scoring metrics to consider at opposite ends of the spectrum: avoiding bogeys on the long Par 3s, and making hay on the Par 5s. In both cases, players comfortable hitting 200-yard approaches will thrive – ideally with a higher degree of loft, so again, longer hitters can prosper at Bay Hill.

 

This is Florida golf, so being able to putt on Bermuda and handle a wind – even if the forecast suggests fairly benign conditions this week – is a must. If you are looking for correlating courses, not much springs to mind but you could make a case for TPC Boston, host of the Dell Technologies Championship. That, too, was designed by Arnold Palmer, and there are examples of success at both: McIlroy and Tiger Woods have won here and there, Justin Rose has finished runner-up at both, Charley Hoffman has won at TPC Boston and finished second at Bay Hill as has Henrik Stenson, while Jason Day has won here

---------------------------------------------

Here are our recommendations for Fantasy and/or wagering

Charles Howell III - 60-1

 

In 10 trips to Bay Hill, Chucky Three Sticks has never missed a cut. That’s a fine record in itself, and when you add into the conversation just how well he has been playing of late, that adds to the intrigue. You may recall him winning on the Bermuda of the Sea Island club earlier in the season, and a couple of his most beloved events – THE PLAYERS Championship and the Sony Open – are also played on the surface. Long and straight off the tee and a decent putter by anybody’s measure, Charles Howell III is a sound play this week.

 

Ian Poulter – Vegas Odds 50-1

 

A rich vein of form brings Ian Poulter to mind this week. The Englishman has recorded four back-to-back top-10 finishes, including T3 last time out at the WGC-Mexico. He’s striking the ball as well as he’s ever done, and at a venue that appeals – eight straight cuts made, including five finishes of T21 or better – that bodes well. Poults has been driving the ball particularly well this term, and if he makes some of his trademark putts in Florida, he could add another top-10 to his collection at the very least.

 

Jason Kokrak – Vegas Odds 70-1

 

The layout at Bay Hill allows Jason Kokrak to show off the highlight of his game: those long-range approaches that plop gently into the centre of the green. One of the best in the business from 175-225 yards, Kokrak is also long and straight off the tee too, and he just looks perfect for this layout; evidenced by a pair of top-10s here. The 33-year-old heads to Bay Hill on the back of a top-10 at the Honda Classic too, so everything looks in place for another strong showing. Kokrak ranks 7th ON TOUR on SG: Approach the Green, 27th ON TOUR in SG: Off the Tee, 41st ON TOUR in Driving Distance, 17th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green and 15th ON TOUR in Birdies. He must be used this week.

 

Matt Wallace 100-1

We were on Matt Wallace to beat Charl Schwartzel and naturally Schwartzel came up with a rare good event to beat us by one stroke (UGH!!), but it’s not going to deter us from keeping a close eye on this under-the-radar pro. On cue, he rode sharp irons to a T20 in his debut at PGA National. He’s now making his first appearance at Bay Hill where his distance off the tee can help in separating him from the others. DFS players are encouraged to make room for the Brit, as he's going to appear in all of the biggest events this year and he’s serious about winning. Wallace is just 28-years-old and has four International victories. In his two events on the MAIN TOUR this year, the Mexico Championship and Honda Classic, he finished T33 and T20 respectively. Worth a bet.

Sam Horsfield 200-1

 

You in the mood to take a shot with a pro that will have a low ownership percentage this week? There are a bunch of them and Sam Horsfield is one. Horsfield is just 22-years old but what we like is that he’s a University of Florida product and placed T14 at Bay Hill last year. Perhaps it is this event that we’ll reference as the point where the prodigiously talented Sam Horsfield made his breakthrough on the MAIN TOUR. Last season as a 21-year-old, he was right in the thick of it at Wentworth, sitting T2 and T3 at the 36 and 54-hole marks respectively. A closing 73 did not help matters, but Horsfield can reflect on a job well done in what is likely to have been a real learning experience. He qualified for the European Tour's finale in 2018 on the shoulders of five top 10s on the circuit. Second at Pretoria earlier in the season, Horsfield is likely to experience some peaks and troughs in these formative years in his career, but right now the going seems rather good for this seriously exciting talent. At 200-1 to win outright, he worth a bet for sure.

 

Keegan Bradley 66-1

 

After a slow start to the campaign, Keegan Bradley is just starting to go through the gears. An opening round of 66 at the Genesis Open was matched by a closing 65 in the WGC-Mexico, and so you might surmise that the world number 32 isn’t a million miles away from his best form. The Eastern side of the country holds many good memories for Bradley, with his PGA Championship victory coming in Georgia and his career-resurrecting triumph in the BMW Championship up in Pennsylvania. Another with strong course form in the bag (six straight cuts made, two top-three finishes), Keegan holds plenty of appeal this week.

Head-to-head Matchups for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-up will be bet at Pinnacle, BET 365 or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPs below are for 72 holes:

This week’s H2H's are:

H2H

#7048 Ian Poulter -111 over Phil Mickelson

We wrote about Ian Poulter above so we’ll repeat that he has recorded four back-to-back top-10 finishes, including T3 last time out at the WGC-Mexico. He’s striking the ball as well as he’s ever done, and at a venue that appeals – eight straight cuts made, including five finishes of T21 or better – that bodes well. Poults has been driving the ball particularly well this term, and if he makes some of his trademark putts in Florida, he could add another top-10 to his collection at the very least. That he’s evenly priced over Phil is a bloody steal that we cannot miss.

 

What is Phil doing other than warming up for the majors? He’s at a point in his career where the majors mean everything, a few other secondary events mean something and these “third-tier” events are mere warmups. This is Mickelson’s first appearance at Bay Hill in six years. The joint was modified back in 2014 so he is unfamiliar with the layout. Additionally, the thick rough would seem to contradict his decision to avoid it at all costs this season so again, we ask, what is he doing here and why did he choose this event? Phil is calculating in everything he does, which prevents us from a double wager here but man, c’mon, if this isn’t an absolute steal based on market credibility and familiarity, we don’t know what is. This should be a rocking chair wager. (Risking 2.22 units to win 2).   

 

#7031 Billy Horschel +102 over Henrik Stenson

With a great record at Bay Hill that includes top fives in four of the last five editions, you are likely going to read all about Stenson this week from pundits everywhere. He’ll he highly owned in DFS and bettors will also see him as a bargain on the betting board in H2H matchups. We see him as a liability that should be avoided this week. After getting shut out in all three stops on the European Tour's Desert Swing, he managed but a T54 at Chapultepec. That's weak. Furthermore, Father Time strikes everyone differently and Stenson could be breaking down. Let’s not ignore that he had elbow surgery in October. Although he came away swinging from it with a trio of impressive results immediately thereafter, there is a distinct possibility that he’s experiencing a setback right now and even if he finds his game this week, we still like Billy Ho to beat hin.

 

When analyzing a player’s form, typically it is smart to value their long-term ball-striking numbers over the often short-term nature of a hot putter. However, with B-Ho, we’re willing to make an exception, as we know the class he brings to the table. The Floridan loves playing on home soil and is totally at home on Bermuda; as evidenced by his rank of first for SG: Putting at PGA National. Horschel has never missed a cut at Bay Hill and has a pair of top-20s to his name, and if he drives a bit better than he has of late – and maintains his hot run on the greens – you would expect him to post a personal best at this layout this week (Risking 2 units to win 2.04 units).

 

FANTASY: Horse for the Course

 

Hideki Matsuyama 28-1

Last week, we surmised that Justin Thomas was a must play in a weak field where he was clearly the class. We got hit over the head with a steel bat when JT was +7 after two rounds and missed the cut. That’s what we get for siding with someone who most owned and that look like a lock to finish well. This week’s “JT” is Rory. McElroy won this event last year. His formline of late suggests another win is in the offing. That probably would have come in Mexico had Dustin Johnson not been on such unstoppable form but it was his fourth consecutive top-five finish, and his season thus far has been predicated on some fantastic hitting off the peg; McIlroy ranks first on Tour for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and that’s most welcome ahead of the trip to Bay Hill. He’ll be heavily owned but we’re not falling for that again. Instead, we’ll turn our attentions to this horse.

 

The Japanese star has been playing well for a while now without contending seriously for trophies, but perhaps the switch to Florida might just provide the spark required. It’s where Matsuyama tends to play his best golf, and a comfortability on Bermuda could be the icing on the cake of a strong few months of ball striking. Long off the tee, the 27-year-old is also an excellent scrambler and on the face of it, Bay Hill is a layout set up perfectly for him to thrive. His formline at the course reveals only one top-ten finish in four visits, but this year’s trip coincides with some of his best golf that he has played in quite some time. Matsuyama ranks 3rd ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, 5th in SG: Approach and 12th in Approaches from 175-200 yards. He’s our Horse.

 

Mix and match any or all of the above with your own to create a DFS roster to look something like the samples below.

Screen-Shot-2019-03-06-at-3-05-40-PM

 

 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS: posted March 11

Poulter -111 over Mickelson (W)

Horschel +102 over Stenson (L)

 

1-1 + 0.00 units



Our Pick

PGA Wagers (Risking 4.22 units - To Win: 0.00)