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The U.S. Open

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Posted Wednesday, June 13 at 2:45 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is June 13 at 7:30 AM EST. 

The U.S. Open:

 

Course Preview:

 

The beauty of the US Open is that it typically takes us on a tour of some of the finest golf properties that America has to offer – Chambers Bay, stand down, and Shinnecock Hills looks set to add to that fine tradition this week. This is one of the oldest golf courses in the States – built way back in 1892 – and yet it should test the skills and equipment of the modern player more than a century later.

 

First things first, head over to Google Images and type in Shinnecock Hills….you might be surprised by what you see. The Links feel is obvious, and actually if you didn’t know otherwise you might think that the layout was in the UK, such is its classic feel. It’s a pretty long stretch too at 7,445 yards for its Par 70, and as is often the case, the United States Golf Association – which oversees the US Open – is likely to try and lengthen these further as their typical first line of defense.

 

Shinnecock Hills is almost entirely treeless, as is in keeping with the Links vibe, and with the layout being largely flat, that means there is very little shelter for the players. Such exposure will lead to the wind, which is almost omnipresent on Long Island, presenting quite the challenge for the field. There are other defenses too, both deliberate and incidental. There are a number of doglegging holes, particularly from left-to-right, and so the right-handers will need to have their fade on point this week. Also, the small and fast Poa Annua greens will require precision approach play, with a tiny landing area with minimal margin for error.

 

And then there are the incidental conditions: the fairways and greens are typically super-hard. If you can recall what feels like a lifetime ago, back in 2004, when Shinnecock Hills last hosted a US Open, you might remember officials watering the greens in-between groups, which confirms how incredibly firm they were back then. You wouldn’t expect them to make the same mistake again, but be mindful that these greens will be like cement, and that holding long irons will be incredibly difficult.

 

The other key point to note is the surprising generosity off the tee. Many that have walked the course have paced out the fairways, with a rough guide of 41 yards reported. That is incredibly generous for a US Open stretch, and while the rough and native grasses are likely to be long and extremely penal, it would appear that there is less likelihood of getting into trouble off the tee as we might otherwise expect. Shinnecock Hills doesn’t have cutesy names for its holes nor any distinguishable features, but here’s one thing very notable is the routing. Only two holes – nine and 10 – face in the same direction, which means that each time a pro steps up to the tee box, he’ll be faced with a new challenge in terms of wind, speed and direction. That makes course management and club selection of the utmost importance, and with holes ranging from par 3’s that are both short and medium to long par 4s, it’s reasonable to assume that almost every club in the bag is going to get a workout this week.

 

Weather Forecast for Southhampton, New York

 

There has been a few thundery downpours predicted in the lead-up to Thursday’s first tee, but those don’t appear to be heavy enough to alter what will be a hard and fast course. Otherwise, the forecast at this early stage is the same across all four days: plenty of sunshine when the clouds break, with temperatures at roughly 27°C. The key point to note here is the wind gusts: Thursday and Friday in particular could have some teeth but overall, the weekend is set fair according to the long-range forecast. 

 

What we’re looking for this week:

 

“Today was my first walk ever around Shinnecock Hills. I will say this with confidence. Long hitters will have the advantage and one of em will hoist the trophy”.

 

That was a tweet put out by Ted Scott, Bubba Watson’s caddie and a man who has been on the bag for some hugely impressive victories. Basically, he knows what he’s talking about. Our course run-through confirmed the point too, and so really we are looking at the longer hitters to enjoy an edge this week but this is a US Open, and nobody is going to get a free pass no matter how far they can hit that tiny white ball. Keeping it in play is essential, as there is some pretty nasty-looking fescue and native grass mounds out there, so Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee statistics – principally from events that were driver heavy – are key building blocks.

 

Hit lots of greens or scramble like a demon; that goes without saying. But again, length off the tee will lead to shorter approaches, and with such fast Poa Annua greens to work with, utilizing spin from wedges should prove to be essential in avoiding bogeys and fashioning the occasional birdie look.

 

Corey Pavin and Retief Goosen have both won at Shinnecock, and they have a rich history in the British Open, while the runners up to those guys were Greg Norman and Phil Mickelson; a duo with three major titles between them on the British Links. The likes of Tom Lehmann, Nick Price, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els and Chris DiMarco, who have all won or finished second in the British Open, have also all appeared prominently on leaderboards at Shinnecock Hills. There is an obvious West Coast link here too, with Pavin winning and Mickelson finishing second. Playing in the wind, and comfort on Poa Annua, are two worthy strings to the bow, and we’re happy enough to suggest that will be a bonus this week – form at Pebble Beach, a former US Open host, may also be worth a second look. Don’t worry about backing a few maidens, though: 10 of the last 13 US Open champions were picking up their first major trophy. Lastly, three of the top-10 at the 2004 US Open were left-handers: Mickelson, Mike Weir and Steve Flesch. That can’t be mere coincidence, and time and time again we see lefties do well at tracks with left-to-right doglegs: Bubba’s win at Riviera and Ted Potter’s triumph at Pebble Beach this season are testament to that. Perhaps there is more to that than meets the eye.

 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at BET365 because of their cash-out option during the event:

To Win outright:

Patrick Cantlay 55-1

Cantlay doesn’t have nearly the same recognition as some of the other best golfers in the world but he could pop at any time because that’s how good he is. Cantlay loves these tough fields and almost always excels in them. He picks his events carefully and usually goes out and plays some of the best golf on TOUR. He can almost be considered a sleeper because he’s not held in the same regard as others but you can be damn sure that the oddsmakers have nothing but great respect for his abilities. Cantlay is coming off eighth at Memorial and ranks 10th in SG Tee to Green and 13th in SG Off the Tee. He has finished 4th, 7th and 7th in three of his last five events with a 23rd place finish thrown in. Patrick Cantlay is not a good pro, he’s a great pro with just as good a chance to win this event as others in the 20-1 range and lower. He’s another overlay in a field of many and must be played at theseodds (Risking 0.2 units to win 11 units).

Trey Mullinax 250-1

We always like to take a shot with a massive bomb and this one is worth getting behind. Trey Mullinax has one major appearance and one top-10 finish. The 25-year-old, who is officially the longest hitter on the PGA TOUR, has a habit of shooting low numbers – he is now the proud holder of the joint-lowest round of 62 at TPC San Antonio – and yet he has an ability to grind out scores on short and fiddly courses too, as his T6 finish at TPC Southwind last week testifies. A player blessed with such awesome power should make his own life much easier this week by leaving fewer mid to long-range approaches into these tight greens, and so you can expect to see Mullinax taking plenty of wedges and short irons at Shinnecock Hills; a significant advantage. Expect him to continue his golfing education with another fine showing on Long Island and while he likely won’t win, saying that can be applied to every golfer on TOUR. None of them are “likely to win” this week but one of them will and Mullinax is a fearless golfer that ranks first ON TOUR in Driving Distance and 64th in Approaches from 50-75 yards. At this price, yeah he’s worth it (Risking 0.2 units to win 50 units). 

 

Emiliano Grillo 100-1

 

This might be the biggest overlay on the board, It would not be a bit of a surprise if Emiliano Grillo’s long wait for a trophy ended at the US Open and the Argentine is certainly in the kind of form to make it a reality. He’s only missed one cut this season and has five top-10s to his name; two of which have come in his last four starts. Grillo’s form is traveling across state borders and course types, and yet it’s at tests like Shinnecock Hills where he should really come into his own. Accurate off the tee, Grillo finds plenty of greens as a result, and if he could just harness a strong putting performance for four good rounds, which he is absolutely capable of, he would surely end a title drought that dates back to 2016. Grillo is just 25-years-old and he’s on the verge of being the next big name in the sport because he really is that good and one of the least flawed on the planet. Whether he puts it all together on Long Island is anybody’s guess, but a three-figure price on a young star in the making and that is in a rich vein of form is a bet that we are not going to miss. That Tiger Woods is 18-1, Justin Rose 14-1, and Jason Day 16-1 is bordering on lunacy when compared to Grillo’s 100-1. There are lots of overlays, as the books have to prevent from being over-exposed and therefore the big names (Day, Spieth, Woods, Fowler, McIlroy, Mickelson, DJ, JT and Henrik Stenson among others are all way overvalued. Grillo’s chances of winning are just as some of those names and far better than others. Grillo ranks ninth ON TOUR in total strokes gained 12th in driving accuracy, 14th in Shots Gained: Putting and 21st in SG Approach the Green. Massive overlay here (Risking 0.2 units to win 20).   

 

Jimmy Walker 90-1

 

With his battle with Lyme disease seemingly won, Jimmy Walker is back playing the kind of golf that has won him a major in the past. An uptrend in form started at Pebble Beach – happily one of our potential correlating courses with Shinnecock, and continued through The Masters (T20), the Texas Open (solo fourth), THE PLAYERS Championship (T2) and Byron Nelson (T6). Walker is a six-time PGA TOUR winner, with triumphs at venues we might consider to have similarities with Shinnecock Hills at Pebble Beach and Waialae. He has major pedigree too, having won the 2016 PGA Championship and recorded other top-10s, and that, coupled with improved health and form, makes Walker a live contender this week. Jimmy Walker has ranks high in so many categories and also has three top-6s during his current streak of five straight top-20s. Ranks 24th in SG Approach the Green. A healthy Jimmy Walker is a dangerous Jimmy Walker.(Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).

 

Brian Harman 125-1

 

Why are guys like Tiger Woods 18-1, Dustin Johnson 8-1, Phil Mickelson 33-1 and Rory McIlroy 14-1 while guys like Brian Harman are 125-1? It’s not because it’s an accurate reflection of their chances. What the odds represent are the sportsbooks protecting themselves from being exposed. For instance, they can’t make Tiger Woods 100-1 because every casual bettor would bet him and therefore the books would lose a bloody fortune should Tiger win. Tiger is 18-1 for that reason and the same goes for all the other usual suspects, which is why betting pros like McIlroy, Spieth, Fowler, Rahm, Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Justin Thomas among a few others have NO VALUE whatsoever and why they are never on our slate. Yeah, those top names can and do win but a guy like Brian Harman and the others mentioned in this space every week also win and hold much better value. While Harman lacks a little length off the tee, his ability to turn the ball over both ways should at least keep him in business at Shinnecock Hills. He led the US Open after 54 holes last year, and to be honest, he didn’t do much wrong on Sunday other than simply failing to react to Brooks Koepka’s birdie barrage. With Harman, we like to think he’s a decent frontrunner under pressure; as evidenced at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship when he held off the challenge of Dustin Johnson, amongst others. With seven top-10s and 14 cuts made in 16 starts, it has been a typically consistent campaign from the left hander, and this course should not only suit his eye but also his neat-and-tidy ball striking. At this kind of price point, we really should get a decent run for our money. Harman ranks 12th ON TOUR in Par 4 Scoring Average and 22nd in Greens in Regulation (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

 

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Head-to-head Matchups for The U.S. OPEN

 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS for The U.S. OPEN

The H2H wagers below are for 72 holes:

 

#7008 Justin Thomas +100 over Rory McIlroy Pinnacle

Frankly, we trust this wager to be a steal, as Rory McIlroy is the fade target here because these are the types of courses that he struggles on. In the H2H bet available, Rory is also matched up against Rickie Fowler, DJ, and Jason Day but we like this one the best because of the price and because Justin Thomas is so good (we don’t trust Day for a second and DJ is -153). Thomas is simply one of the best, if not the best in the world. He’s ranked World No. 1 and has a comfortable lead in the FedEx Cup standings and hasn’t finished worse than T-22 this season. Thomas ranks second in SG Tee to Green, sixth in SG Approach the Green and eighth in Scrambling.

Rory McIlroy is a great guy and when the course suits him, he’s also as good as any player on the planet. However, Rory thrives on slow tracks. When the greens are damp or wet, Rory will kill it and we’d put him up against anyone in those conditions but get him on ultra-fast tracks like this and the opposite is true. Rory is very likely going to overshoot putts and chips all day long on Friday and Saturday and miss the cut. Even if Rory makes the cut, he’ll be extremely hard pressed to finish ahead of JT because there is a bunch of bogies in Rory’s inability to adjust on extremely fast courses like this one (Risking 2 units to win 2).

#7028 Rickie Fowler -108 over Rory McIlroy Pinnacle

Normally, we don’t like to fade the same golfer twice because if he has a strong showing we could lose double the units but we’re going to stick with our guns and not trust Rory on this fast track. Rickie Fowler is has a reputation for not being able to win when the lights are brightest but we’re not buying into it. Rickie is primed for this event. He can get it up-and-down from anywhere under pressure. He's done that to win other tournaments and he'll do that eventually during a week that's a major. His mentality on the golf course and his ability to close is summed up by himself,” If you've done it before, you can do it anywhere. Three weeks ago, at the Fort Worth Invitational, Fowler said that his final Masters round was "definitely the most confidence I've felt in a major. Furthermore, his up-and-down season is starting to level out, and at a good point. He has finished T-21 or better in four of last five starts and Ranks seventh in scrambling and 24th in SG around the green. Rickie Fowler has a great chance to win this week and he WILL finish ahead of Rory (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Matt Kuchar +100 over Sergio Garcia (BET365)

Sergio Garcia is another big name, whose odds do not reflect his chances. Garcia is in the 50-1 range, which means he‘s priced in the top-30 but who should be way higher because he’s so woefully out-of-form. It has been said before that there are courses that no matter who you are, when you’re running bad, you simply cannot turn on a switch and slay it. Shinnecock Hills is one such course. Garcia’s switch isn’t even on the wall anymore. He has missed the cut in four of his last five events and finished 70th in the only event he didn’t miss the cut in over that stretch. On paper since the end of March, Garcia’s form line looks like this: MC-MC-MC-70th-MC. Since winning that elusive major to put a much needed stamp on his great career, he’s not playing as much and he’s not nearly as focused. Furthermore, Pinnacle Sports has Patrick Reed -156 over Sergio and Tommy Fleetwood -143 over Sergio while they have Matt Kuchar -114 over Webb Simpson and Kuchar -138 over Bubba Watson. Always pay attention to Pinnacle Sports. Matt Kuchar, meanwhile, has missed one cut in last 32 events dating back to May of 2017. Need we say more? We think not (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

#7112 Matthew Fitzpatrick -101 over Byeong-Hun An Pinnacle

Byeong-Hun An is on just about everybody’s radar this week and for good reason. Dude just lost a playoff at the Memorial. He’s been all over the leaderboards this year with four top-10 finishes in his last 12 events. He’s been featured in print and seen all over the screen on the final two days of many events. In other words, An’s stock is high and now even casual fans that watch the final three hours on Sunday know who he is. Beware. An is good but the sharpest sportsbook in the world has him a tiny price over a relative unknown like Matthew Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick is this great golfer that should nobody is talking about and that should thrive on this course. What you may not know is that Fitzpatrick is a Links specialist that has been playing these types of course his entire career. He won the European Masters last year in Switzerland. He finished 14th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland back in October. He also finished third at the Abu Dhabi Championship in January. Fitzpatrick is no stranger to the main tour either or the world’s biggest events, as he finished 7th at the Masters in 2016 and finished 38th at this year’s Masters and followed that up with a 14th place finish at Harbour Town. Matthew Fitzpatrick has finished 14th, 46th, T8 and 30th in his last four events and recently finished top-15 in eight straight events (!). Yeah he’s good and yeah, he should beat Byeong-Hun An (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).  

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Others to consider to win outright or for DFS (Daily Fantasy):

 

Horse for the Course:

There are so many horses one could use this week and we’re not going to talk anyone out of any of them so pick your poison. We’re not going to single anyone out but DJ, Grillo, Rickie, JT, Jon Rahm or a few others should all make the cut with a chance to rack up big fantasy points. We will however, suggest to avoid Rory, Jason Day (always seems like a constant struggle for him these days) and Tony Finau (that putter just doesn’t putt). 

 

Paul Casey (45-1)

It’s very rare that you can back a player as classy as Paul Casey at sportsbook odds of 45-1 but here we are. With 18 professional wins, the most recent coming in March, and nine major top-10 finishes, Casey has all the credentials to finally get over the line in a big event. Looking at his career resumé, one might assume that The Masters is his best chance of winning a major, but there are top-10s to his name in the British Open and that Links effect could be very handy this week. Casey has won in Texas, Abu Dhabi and Ireland, so the wind won’t present any problems, and his excellent ball striking off the tee – he ranks 14th for Total Driving – should keep him in play and with some more agreeable approaches to make than many in the field. A decent grinder as proven by his rank of 25th for Bogey Avoidance, Casey has won and bagged two other top-10s this term at scores of -10 or lower, and that confirms he is willing to bide his time until the birdie opportunities come along.


Bubba Watson 66-1

 

When Shinnecock Hills last hosted the US Open in 2014, there were three left-handers inside the top-10, which is a remarkable stat when you think about the tiny ratio of lefties on the Tour. Was that merely coincidence? Possibly, but you also have to consider that the left-to-right dogleg of a number of this layout’s holes do lend themselves to the left hander’s draw. Bubba is as good a shot shaper as anyone on the planet – proven by his win at Riviera earlier this season, and while his US Open record is fairly poor, we cannot discount a player with two major titles to his name who has won twice and has two other top-10s to his name in the past four months.

 

Marc Leishman 60-1

 

There simply aren’t many, if any, better Links players on the planet than Marc Leishman, and a missed cut last time out has happily made his price far more agreeable here. The Aussie’s form has meandered lately but we are willing to forgive: his lead-in form to the Links-esque stylings of Trinity Forest for the Byron Nelson read 63-MC, but that didn’t stop him from finishing solo second in an effort which included a round of 61. Note that Leishman isn’t afraid to grind it out if the wind does pick up on Long Island. He bagged a top-10 in The Masters earlier in the season – showcasing his ability to patiently wait for birdie opportunities to come along – and he is also a former play-off loser in a British Open, having lost out to Zach Johnson in 2015. Leishman ranks 12th ON TOUR in Par 4 Scoring Average and 35th in Bogey Avoidance. A two-time winner on the PGA TOUR in 2017, the US Open has a habit of crowning first-time major champions, and for our money, Leishman fits the bill as a classy operator who will surely win a big one soon and this could be that day.

 

Wagers lost:

5 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -1 unit

Wagers won

#7008 Justin Thomas +100 over Rory McIlroy = +2 units

#7028 Rickie Fowler -108 over Rory McIlroy = +2 units

Matt Kuchar +100 over Sergio Garcia (BET365) = +2 units

#7112 Matthew Fitzpatrick -101 over Byeong-Hun An = +2 units

 

Therefore 8 units in wins - 1 unit in losses = a total net profit for this event of 7 units. 

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Our Pick

The U.S. Open (Risking 9.30 units - To Win: 0.00)