PGA Wagers
The FedEx St. Jude Classic

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Posted Wednesday, June 6 at 12:30 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is June 6 at 8:30 AM EST. 

The FedEx St. Jude Classic:

 

Course Preview:

 

The PGA TOUR heads south from Ohio to Tennessee this week, with TPC Southwind, which has been upgraded to a WGC venue in time for the 2019 campaign, the host.

 

As tests of pure ball-striking go, TPC Southwind is right up there with the best of them. This Bermudagrass set-up features the unholy duo of tight fairways and smaller-than-average greens, and to make matters worse, these are super-fast as well; the difference between an uphill and a downhill putt is stark.

 

Accurate striking and course management is key, as is the ability to make the most of Par 4’s. Southwind is a Par 70 measuring 7,244 yards with just two Par 5’s to take advantage of. Built on the site of an old dairy farm in Memphis, former US Open champions Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green joined forces with Ron Pritchard on design duties, although a 2004 redesign changed the nature of the track. Trees were removed and the Bentgrass was replaced by Bermuda for a test more in keeping with the hot conditions. Even so, hazards remain – Southwind navigates its way past naturally-formed streams, lakes and ponds, and the rough is kept deliberately long in an attempt to simulate US Open style toughness. The 11th is a par 3 that mimics the island set-up at Sawgrass, while the 14th is regarded as one of the toughest par 3s on Tour; a 231-yard monster that some players will need to hit a wood or rescue club into. The par 4 18th features a fairway that is wholly flanked by water down its left-hand side, and so our winner this week will have to do things the hard way to get that paycheck in their pants pocket. This is a picturesque layout that also holds plenty of menace: five of the last six champions here posted a winning mark of -13 or lower.

 

This is an event where it feels as though an outsider – who doesn’t have to worry about the US Open, simply because they won’t be there – could come to the fore. Their focus will solely be on picking up a trophy, a big pay cheque and banking some FedExCup points; this is one of those events where the sleeper plays really could come to the party. That is, of course, if they can get past Daniel Berger, the two-time champion here looking to complete the PGA TOUR’s first three-peat since Steve Stricker’s triple-hand at the John Deere Classic. Can he make it a hat-trick this week? Stranger things have happened but probably not.

 

Another reason why we might see a sleeper win at Southwind is because this course is fabulously inclusive. It’s a short 7,244 yard Par 70, and with just two par 5s to attack. This is not a week where the bombers will have any real advantage. Keeping your ball in play and avoiding bogeys is the key strategy in Memphis, Tennessee.

 

We’ll see if we can find a couple of sleepers and great H2H matchups. Last year, we had five winners over the season and this year we have none. We’re getting close though, as we had Bryson DeChambeau a few times before he won last week and same with Aaron Wise three weeks ago. Call it “flop-lag” but regardless, we’re close so hopefully this will be the week.

What we’re looking for this week:

 

We’re in Par 70 territory this week, and that gives an indication of the kinds of players we should be considering in Memphis. Par 4 scoring is a necessity, and particularly bogey avoidance too as TPC Southwind is anything but a doddle. Berger didn’t shoot a round lower than 66, but he made just nine bogeys in the 72 holes he played. Indeed, he was a lowly T34 at the halfway stage, but a run of 10 birdies and two bogeys over the course of the weekend was enough to get the job done.

 

The Par 70 element suits players who have a habit of showing up at the shorter tracks where they can’t be overpowered with only two par 5s available. The Sony Open is a short Par 70 which has been won by the likes of David Toms and Fabian Gomez, who also have triumphed here at TPC Southwind, while the OHL Classic at Mayakoba – a Par 71 but one that’s less than 7000 yards long – shows Brian Gay and Harris English as dual champions with this St Jude Classic.

 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at BET365 because of their cash-out option during the event:

To Win outright:

Austin Cook 80-1

It’s early days in the PGA TOUR career of Austin Cook, but the signs already are very good indeed. The native from nearby Jonesboro, Arkansas, is a PGA TOUR rookie, but he's making already his third start at TPC Southwind. He placed T13 in 2014 and T22 in 2015. It's the kind of thirst-quencher that comes at a perfect time to end his drought without a top 25 since mid-January. The most eye-catching aspect of his game is that dynamic touch around the green so chip-and-putt contests like this are sure to be Cook’s favorite dish moving forward (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).

 

Abraham Ancer 140-1

 

With the firmness of the greens under the hot Memphis sun, not to mention their small stature, there may be plenty of scrambling to do this week. This is an area where Abraham Ancer really shines. The talented young Mexican has a cracking short game, and he has shown glimpses in his debut PGA TOUR season that he could be one to watch for years to come. We’re only interested in the here-and-now, truth be told, but there are upsides to Ancer. He has recorded a top-10 at one of our correlated courses, Mayakoba, and bagged another in the Houston Open. This is a talented kid and in a weak field event like this, he may just shine (Risking 0.2 units to win 28 units).

 

Tom Hoge 110-1

 

There is a concern that Hoge’s erratic driving could lead him into trouble at Southwind, but a trending right record here of MC-34-12 at least suggests he knows which fairways to miss and where. A big year-to-year improvement also catches our eye. The real skill in his game is on approach and Hoge is also an excellent scrambler. That recipe earned him a T13 finish at the Memorial last week, and extends a fine season in which roughly a third of his starts have delivered top-25 finishes. Hoge has played well at Waialae and Torrey Pines this season, and that suggests he is capable of mixing it when the weather conditions are tricky and the fairways are hard to find. Like many other tee-to-green merchants, Hoge needs a good week with the putter to go low, and last week the hard work he has been putting in with the putter appeared to be paying dividends. There are three spots available to be had for next Week’s Open and Hoge with three Top-10’s in 2018 and sitting in 62nd in FedEx Cup Points, a tee time at the U.S. Open is within reach for Hoge and we promise you that his motivation will be high. His confidence is too right now (Risking 0.2 units to win 22 units).

 

Corey Conners 125-1

 

After holding the 54-hole lead at the PGA Tour's Valspar Championship in mid-March, Conners let his mind wander. Conners was in a position to become just the second rookie to win on Tour in the 2017-18 season — and the first Canadian since Adam Hadwin captured the same event last year — and a win for the first-year golfer would’ve gone a long way. He'd secure his Tour card for two years, he would’ve gotten into the Masters and there would’ve been a $1.1 million US payday. Getting into the mix on Sunday is the first stepping stone. There was a letdown period afterward but Conners is back playing some strong rounds. He shot a remarkable round of 63 at Fort Worth on Saturday, followed by a 69 on Sunday to finish T8. He’s made the cut in three straight and four of his last five, which also included a T26 at the Houston Open.

 

Said Conners,” "I'll look back on the experience from the final round and just make sure I'm really focused the next time I'm in that position and make good decisions and commit to shots. It's definitely an experience I'll look back on in the future, and something I'll get a lot of confidence from."

 

Conners walked the walk last week with a very good weekend. He has one top-10 finish and three top-25 finishes over his last nine events and this field is one that can be had. With some great rounds at correlating courses (mentioned above), Conners is worth a bet this week (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

 

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Head-to-head Matchups for The FedEx St. Jude Classic

 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle or 5DIMES

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS for The FedEx St. Jude Classic

The H2H wagers below are for 72 holes:

 

#7016 Charles Howell III +102 over Steve Stricker Pinnacle 5DIMES 

Steve Stricker is getting a lot of attention this week because he was a runner-up at this event last season but so what. He was playing his ass off for a chance to get into the U.S. Open and just missed. Stricker is a 12-time Tour winner and has pretty much done it all with the exception of winning a major, where he is 0-71 with one second place finish, Steve Stricker is also 51-years old and he’s running out of time to get that elusive major victory on his résumé. As it turns out, Steve Stricker qualified for the U.S. Open this past Monday so he need not win this event to get in. We do not trust for a second that he’ll be 100% focused here. He simply didn’t withdraw from an event he already committed to. Stricker is IN the U.S. Open next week and he’ll likely use this event as a glorified warmup. No chance is he going to wear himself down with the U.S. Open on deck next week.

 

Charles Howell is also in the U.S. Open but his status was never in question. If Chuckie Three Sticks is ever going to end this title drought, which dates back more than a decade now, then conditions and the weak field means this week surely is the perfect time. Back on Bermuda, CHIII should thrive at a track where a premium is placed on accuracy over power, and his ability to find greens in regulation will surely help him at a track where the small and hard surfaces will be hard for many players to pinpoint. Taking wedges and short irons into these greens will be key given that they are baked solid by the Memphis sun, and Howell is just about long enough to have that advantage in his arsenal this week. His record at Southwind is so-so; he’s made four of the last five cuts, with a best finish of T26 and a worst of T39. There is a foundation for success there, at least, and Howell’s ability to avoid bogeys (sixth for Bogey Avoidance) should at least give keep him in the mix as others flounder. We would never bet Charlie to win outright because the odds aren’t big enough but this is a great spot for him to crush Steve Stricker (Risking 2 units to win 2.04 units).

 

#7025 Kiradech Aphibarnrat +127 over Luke List Pinnacle  5DIMES 

Luke List is a name you are going to read about quite a bit this week, as just about every DFS pundit has his name in the mix. We saw a similar thing with Charl Schwartzel last week and Schwartzel shot five over after two rounds and missed the cut. What we like so much about this H2H match-up is that Luke List is going to the U.S. Open next week while the Barn Rat has to earn a ticket to get in. In the week prior to the Masters, we took the same approach in that we wagered on pros that were looking to punch their ticket to the first major of the year pitted up against pros that were already in. Well, that applies here too. Luke List hasn’t played in the U.S. Open since 2007. He has played the U.S. Open three times in his career and missed the cut all three times. In 11 years ON TOUR, List has a horrible record in major events and so we have to trust that all his focus will be on preparing for next week because in 11 years on tour, he has accomplished absolutely nothing in major events and that’s a stigma he does not want hanging over his career like it is now.

 

There is something undeniably cool about Kiradech Aphibarnrat: the fast cars, the cigars and the general view that life should be enjoyed to the max has earned the big man a cult following across the globe. Lest we forget how good he is at golf though. He’s won eleven times worldwide and five of those have come since the start of 2017, so this is a guy who knows how to get the job done. The Barn Rat finished T5 at the tree-lined WGC Mexico earlier this season, and was second at Golf Club Milano in the Italian Open last season. The Thai ace was fifth at the WGC Matchplay, finished inside the top-50 at The Masters despite posting an opening round of 79, and finished a more-than-respectable T30 in THE PLAYERS Championship. Barn Rat finished 5th and 13th respectively over his last two events and is in great form right now and ready to make his mark on the MAIN TOUR. Hell, dude can win this event and if he was higher than 40-1 to do so, we would probably bet him. At this price against List, we’ll absolutely bet him, trusting that we not only have the superior golfer here but the more focused one too for this event (Risking 2 units to win 2.54 units). 

 

Billy Horschel -125 over Charl Schwartzel BET365 5DIMES 

Normally we are not in favor of spotting juice in H2H match-ups but we are not adverse to doing so when the price is right as it is here. In fact, this might be the biggest steal on the board and it’s offered at BET365 and not Pinnacle Sports. That’s what actually caught our eye here, as Pinnacle Sports has the event favorite, Dustin Johnson, matched up against Billy Horschel and that’s extremely significant. Not only is Billy Ho matched up against DJ, but Pinny also has him matched up against another favorite and a pro in tremendous form in Byeong-Hun An. That, too, is significant.

 

Charl Schwartzel is a former Masters winner that continues to be overpriced weekly. His main focus is major events and not these events leading up to them. Meanwhile, Billy Ho can’t wait for this event to start and Pinnacle loves his chances to beat both DJ and An. In fact, Horschel has four top-10s at TPC Southwind in as many visits and will be looking to finally get a ticket to the champion’s party in Memphis. Man, is this a strong matchup that is worth bringing the hammer down on (Risking 2.5 units to win 2).   

Note: This wager is also available at 5DIMES at -110. 

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Others to consider to win outright or for DFS (Daily Fantasy):

 

Horse for the Course:

 

Billy Horschel - It has been a productive few months for Billy Horschel, who returned to form at the RBC Heritage with a T5 return back in April. He followed up with T11 at the Texas Open before teaming up with Scott Piercy to win the Zurich Classic, where his putter was red hot. Subsequent finishes at THE PLAYERS Championship (T37) and AT&T Byron Nelson (T21) suggest a cooling off but seven of those eight rounds were under par, and with five PGA TOUR titles to his name – including a pair of FedExCup events – we’re always happy to have a proven winner on side at a course he loves and thrives in. 

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright:

 

Peter Uihlein - It is not beyond the pale to suggest that Kevin Na is playing some of the best golf of his career right now, and you wonder where that will take him. He opened up 66-65 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and was just four shots off the lead at the 54-hole stage, and at Colonial last week he bookended his fourth-place finish with rounds of 62 and 61 in a sublime display of golf. So, if he can connect four good rounds at Muirfield Village this week – and he has finishes T2 here in the past remember – then who knows: perhaps Na can add a long overdue second PGA TOUR win to his resumé.

 

Eric Axley - Want to gamble? This one might pay off. The 44-year-old lefty is perfect for DFSers this week. He comes dirt cheap, but he definitely carries the momentum of a successful attempt at sectional qualifying on Monday. Already a winner on the http://Web.com Tour – in April and just down the road in Oxford, Mississippi, in fact – and sits 16th on its money list. And he's 4-for-7 in this tournament with cuts made in his last two trips (2015, 2016).

 

Ben Crane - Crane is playing some of his best golf so far this season right now and that’s timely ahead of a trip to a course he clearly enjoys. Not the most consistent of players, there’s a rather big cue that Crane loves Southwind in his return of 10-41-37-1-18; yes, one of his five PGA TOUR titles came here in 2014. Within his last four starts, Crane has finished T11 at the Texas Open and T8 in the Fort Worth Invitational, and so you don’t need to be a genius that, on paper at least, Crane should have another good run this week, too but he’ll be overlooked for sure. 

 

Stay away from:

 

J.B. Holmes - In four previous appearances here, J.B. managed only one top 50 (T19, 2012) and prior to last week's noisemaker, the 36-year-old had gone 12 starts without a top-30 finish.

 

Brandt Snedeker - A popular name in free-fall mode right now that will be playing in the US Open next week. If you can find him in a H2H match-up against anyone not named Holmes, fade.

 

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Wagers lost

4 golfers to win = - 0.8 units

Charles Howell III +102 over Steve Stricker = - 2 units

 Kiradech Aphibarnrat +127 over Luke List = - 2 units

 

Wagers won

Billy Horschel -125 over Charl Schwartzel = + 2 units

Therefore 4.8 units in losses - 2 units in win equals a net loss of 2.8 units for this event

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Our Pick

The FedEx St. Jude Classic (Risking 7.3 units - To Win: 0.00)