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Posted Wednesday, May 30 at 11:15 AM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is May 31 at 7:15 AM EST. 

The Memorial Tournament:

 

Course Preview:

 

Muirfield Village is a classic layout that has been on the PGA TOUR circuit for more than four decades, and it’s a stretch which tests the ball-striking abilities of players; proving you don’t need to lengthen or tighten tracks to achieve competitive tournaments. Measuring 7,392 yards for its Par 72, Muirfield is a Jack Nicklaus design that has an undulating, parklands feel. The fairways are of average width but the rough is left long and luscious here, so accuracy off the tee is of primary importance. The greens, which are Bentgrass, are smaller than your average and also read pretty sharp on the stimp too, so it is fair to say that success at Muirfield hinges on a strong week of all-around golf.

Nicklaus doesn’t like his visitors to have an easy time of things, and that’s why he has peppered this layout with 77 bunkers in total and with water in-play on 11 holes, there really is no rest for the wicked here. The toughness of the test at Muirfield Village has seen it host editions of the Ryder, Presidents and Solheim Cup, so those in attendance can expect a thorough examination of their skills in Ohio this week.

What we’re looking for this week:

 

Accuracy off the tee is paramount, length is not important. Hitting plenty of greens and getting hot with the putter is essential too, and with these Bentgrass surfaces running slick proximity to the hole is a stat of real importance this week too. We can look to other Nicklaus properties too, principally Harbour Town Links, where he aided Pete Dye’s design work, and the Old White, which has played host to the Greenbrier Classic for a number of years. The identities of the last three winners at Muirfield – Jason Dufner, William McGirt and David Lingmerth – don’t really offer any further insight, other than the fact that ‘outsiders’ (the trio ranged from 40/1 to 400/1 in price with the sportsbooks) can have their way here even in the presence of high class company.

 

Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at BET365 because of their cash-out option during the event:

To Win outright:

The need for a competitive warm-up outing prior to the second major of the year sees a strong field assemble at Muirfield Village, with eight of the world’s top 10 and 12 of the top 15 in the FedExCup rankings all making the trip. Because this field is loaded, it opens the door for some great players at outrageous prices so hopefully one or more of the following will be on the first page of the leaderboard with a chance to win it on Sunday.

Rory Sabbatini 125-1

You need a long memory to recall as such, but Rory Sabbatini is a six-time PGA TOUR winner. The last of those came in 2011, so it has been some time since the South African felt some silverware in his hands. However, he came very close at Muirfield Village in 2012, finishing second, and the signs are that he is edging closer to being in contention at the business end of tournaments once more. Sabbatini has finished inside the top-30 in each of his last five strokeplay starts, and bookended his efforts at Colonial with rounds of 66. If he can connect four solid efforts, he may just add another long overdue trophy to his collection and with a 10th place ranking ON TOUR inSG: Around-the-Green and 19th place ranking ON TOUR in Par 4 Scoring Average, this could be the week he feels it (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

 

Cameron Davis 175-1

 

Cameron Davis might be this year’s John Rahm. He’s 23 years old, he’s somewhat raw but man is he ever talented. Upon arrival at his Australian Open in late November, Davis sat 1,494th in the Official World Golf Ranking. He now sits 105th after shooting up the rankings, much like Jon Rahm did back in 2015 to become the household name that he is today. In that aforementioned event, Davis prevailed by one over Matt Jones and Jonas Blixt. Cameron Smith finished fourth, Jason Day fifth and Jordan Spieth eighth. Davis then took his emerging talent to Singapore and opened 2018 with a T6. After adding a T7 at the New Zealand Open, he's been a regular on the Web.com Tour where he started the season with conditional status. A T17 in Mississippi and a T4 in Knoxville preceded victory in Nashville this past Sunday and will take that momentum into this event in which he was already in the field based on the strength of his play abroad. In his PGA TOUR debut at the 2015 OHL Classic at Mayakoba, he placed T15. Cameron Davis is likely to pay off at big odds at some point so keep him high on your radar and keep betting him until he wins on the main tour (Risking 0.2 units to win 35 units).

 

Kevin Streelman 150-1

 

When Kevin Streelman is priced in this range, he’s an auto-bet because he can win any event on the circuit without advanced notice. Only this time, there might be some advanced notice. Streelman finished 18th here at Muirfield in 2015, 8th in 2016 and 13th here last year but because he’s finished MC, MC and 76th in his past three events respectively, he is so far off the radar in this “what have you done for me lately” business. See those last three great results for Streelman at this course over the last three years? Note that those came with rounds of par or worse in each finale that he started inside the top eight on the leaderboard. He was a tweak away from winning this event three years in a row! Throw in three top 10s in his last 10 starts this season and that he ranks fifth in greens in regulation, T24 in proximity, 23rd in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 14th in scrambling and you can see why we’re behind him. Streelman has also resided inside the top four in bogey avoidance for more than four months now and while winning any event is unlikely, he’s a must play at this absurd price (Risking 0.2 units to win 30 units).  

 

Chesson Hadley 60-1

 

We have three bombs listed above but wanted to throw in a pro at lesser odds that also has a good chance of winning and there are plenty of those in this price range. We considered Kevin Na and Ryan Moore (see below in our DFS section), but settled in on Chesson Hadley. Given how consistently well he has played this season, it is a surprise that Hadley hasn’t been able to get over the line and into the winner’s circle. With six top-10s this season, Hadley sits second in that particular list behind Brian Harman and that gives an indicator of his ability to get into the mix. He also ranks third for Proximity to the Hole, which is an indictment of his fantastic approach play. Hadley’s last six stroke-play starts have all delivered top-20 finishes, including a T7 at another Jack Nicklaus inspired property, Harbour Town Links, in the RBC Heritage. It’s easy to overlook many pros this week because this event is so top heavy but in no way should any of these guys be priced higher than Tiger, Phil, Charl or a few others. Pick one or two guys in the 60-1 price range because they have a great chance. We’ll stick with Hadley (Risking 0.2 units to win 12 units).   

 

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Head-to-head Matchups for The Memorial

 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS for The Memorial

 

The H2H wagers below are for 72 holes:

 

#7027 Adam Scott -102 over Charl Schwartzel Pinnacle 

 

Our buy-low, sell high philosophy doesn’t just apply to teams, it applies to individuals and it absolutely applies this week to Charl Schwartzel. Schwartzel is on just about every expert’s radar this week and we can understand why, as there have been plenty of positive signs for Schwartzel of late. He has recorded top-10’s in each of his last three outings including a T2 in THE PLAYERS Championship in his last start. Schwartzel will be a highly owned, highly bet DFS or/and H2H play this week but we’re selling. You see, Schwartzel runs hot and cold but rarely runs hot for four consecutive events. After a run of 6th, 17th and 3rd back in March of 2017, Schwartzel subsequently finished with a missed cut, a withdrawal and a T45 in his following three events respectively. A similar story was told in 2016 after he finished 5th, 7th and 18th in three consecutive June events only to follow that by finishing 42nd, 53rd and 70th in his next three events respectively. Schwartzel also missed the cut in three of four events very recently. Charl Schwartzel is plastered all over DFS recommendations this week but we love that Pinnacle Sports has him matched up against Adam Scott here.

 

Adam Scott shot a tremendous final round of 64 at Fort Worth this past Sunday. His final round mostly went unnoticed because he finished 52nd overall but we always like pros off an eye-opening Sunday. Scott played this event last year and finished T31. Prior, he played this event in 2014 and finished 4th. He ranks 5th ON TOUR in SG: Approach, 14th ON TOUR in  SG: Tee-to-Green and 16th in Greens in Regulation. Those are some handy stats to have in one’s pocket for this event and we’ll trust Scott to finish ahead of this overpriced and unreliable opponent (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

 

Emiliano Grillo -110 over Branden Grace (BET365)

 

Branden Grace is another player whose stock is high after he finished T5 last week on the European Tour, which followed a T3 at Trinity Forest. That’s a 5th place and 3rd place finish in his last two events and it sticks out. That said, Grace has not played this event since 2014 and that’s a big red flag, as this event is considered to be a crucial warm-up for the U.S. Open of which Grace is a part of every year. Incidentally, Grace missed the cut here in 2014 and is much better suited for courses that ARE NOT Par 72’s. Grace has not thrived on Par 72’s and while nothing about this game is etched in stone, that nugget remains on his profile. He is now matched up against a superior golfer in great form.

 

Emiliano Grillo might just be the least flawed golfer on the planet that is almost surely going to be ranked #1 at some point and might stay there for an extended period of time. Grillo has no weaknesses. He can hit long, he can hit straight, he can chip and he can putt and he can do all that with the best of them. His current form is such that a signature win is waiting. With four top-10s in eight starts on the PGA TOUR and another at the European Tour’s Indian Open which he probably should have won given the commanding early lead he opened up, Grillo is an absolute steal over Grace this week in H2H matchups.

The Argentine finished 40th here last year but that was then and this is now and he’s a year older, a year wiser and very much on the verge of a victory. Grillo is just 25-years old and is in great form so there are plenty of reasons to get excited about the chances of him not only winning this event but crushing Branden Grace too. (Risking 2.20 units to win 2).

 

#7046 Russell Knox +105 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat Pinnacle 

 

Kiradech Aphibarnrat is making his first start after accepting Special Temporary Membership. While the Barn Rat is a proven winner abroad and a great story in the making, he hasn’t recorded a top-25 in a non-World Golf Championship in two years. He’s not the first player to thrive on the European Tour and be overwhelmed on the main tour, thus, in this strong field, this is probably not the right time to reach for him.

 

Meanwhile, Knox has been speaking very positively about his game of late, and the hard work he has been putting in on the range appears to be paying dividends with back-to-back top-20 returns in the Byron Nelson and Fort Worth Invitational. The next stage in his renaissance must be to get back into genuine contention for silverware, but we know he’s capable given that he is a two-time Tour winner. As ever it is that pesky flat stick that is hampering Knox’s progress, but like so many tee-to-green specialists, it will only take one or two putts to disappear for a bit of confidence to build up. Knox ranks 12th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 44th in SG: Tee-to-Green and unless something messed up happens here, we trust he’ll blow by Kiradech Aphibarnrat (Risking 2 units to win 2.1).

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Others to consider to win outright or for DFS (Daily Fantasy):

 

Horse for the Course:

 

Marc Leishman - It’s a bit of a cliché when it comes to discussing Marc Leishman, but he is widely regarded as one of the most talented players in world golf. Last time out he was finishing second in the AT&T Byron Nelson; a sixth top-10 finish of the campaign and a third in just six starts. Eye catching is Leishman’s obvious improvement at Muirfield: from 2009 to 2017, his formline shows a clear enhancement of 58-MC-62-58-41-37-5-11-15. It’s almost an exponential improvement every time he tees up in Ohio. With the notion that he is among the sport’s finest these days, there is no reason why the Aussie can’t improve upon that T5 best or at least stay in that range and rack up plenty of DFS points.

Others to consider for DFS or to win outright:

 

Kevin Na - It is not beyond the pale to suggest that Kevin Na is playing some of the best golf of his career right now, and you wonder where that will take him. He opened up 66-65 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and was just four shots off the lead at the 54-hole stage, and at Colonial last week he bookended his fourth-place finish with rounds of 62 and 61 in a sublime display of golf. So, if he can connect four good rounds at Muirfield Village this week – and he has finishes T2 here in the past remember – then who knows: perhaps Na can add a long overdue second PGA TOUR win to his resumé.

 

Ryan Moore - Moore must love playing at Muirfield Village; why else would he have played here for more than 10 consecutive years? In that time he has amassed seven top-25 finishes with a trio of top-10s, and so it is fair to say few if any in this field know the layout as intimately as Moore. The 35-year-old has been gaining strokes from tee-to-green since a return to form in March at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which he has backed up with a top-30 at the Masters, a top-20 at the RBC Heritage and a top-10 at the Texas Open. A missed cut at the Wells Fargo halted his momentum, but a closing round of 66 at THE PLAYERS Championship confirms that he is ready to go low again at a venue he loves.

 

Also worth adding:

 

Keith Mitchell - So talented and so close...at 110-1, he’s worth a bet too.

Shane Lowry

Si-Woo Kim

Bill Haas - showing signs of returning to form after a bad car accident back in February.

 

AVOID:

 

Satoshi Kodaira - Fast greens is something he’s not accustomed to and he’s overshooting them. It’s also his debut at this track.  

 

Shubhanker Sharma - He does not do well on longer tracks in the U.S.

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Wagers lost:

4 golfers to win outright for 0.2 units each = -0.8 units

Russell Knox +105 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat = -2 units

Wagers won:

Adam Scott -102 over Charl Schwartzel = +2 units

Emiliano Grillo -110 over Branden Grace = +2 units

Therefore 4 units in wins - 2.8 uniuts in losses = a net profit for this event of 1.2 units

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