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Posted Wednesday, May 23 at 11:15 AM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is May 24 at 8:06 AM EST. 

Fort Worth Invitational

This Week's Course Preview

The PGA TOUR stays in Texas this week and heads to rather familiar ground, that being the Colonial Country Club for the newly-christened Fort Worth Invitational, which you may know otherwise as the Crowne Plaza, the Dean & Deluca and other sponsorship-led names. Colonial is unique in that it has hosted this tournament since its inception in 1946; only The Masters has been played out at the same venue for longer. This is the last stop off in Texas this season and gives the players a final opportunity to win in the Lone Star State and slip into the prestigious plaid jacket, which previous winners have suggested is something of a thrill. Finally, with the U.S. Open about three weeks away, time is running out for the pros to play their way into some kind of form ahead of the year’s second major.

Colonial CC is customarily referred to as ‘Hogan’s Alley,’ in reference to the five-time winner here. Originally opened in 1936, this layout hosted the US Open in 1941 after Perry Maxwell had gotten his hands on the John Bredemus original and tweaked the opening quartet of holes. Numbers 3-5 are known as the ‘Horrible Horseshoe,’ with the Par 4 third a lengthy 483-yard affair that doglegs to the left around a huge tree. The fourth is a behemoth of a Par 3 – no less than 247 yards (!) into an elevated green, while the fifth, traditionally the toughest hole on the course, requires two poker straight long irons to set up a birdie opportunity. Colonial is a Par 70 that features just two Par 5s with one of those being the opening hole.  Tight, tree-lined and with 12 holes doglegging one way or the other, Colonial also features small Bentgrass greens (note the change from the Texan norm). The layout is littered with fairway bunkers, and water is in play on six holes. This is a short and proverbial ‘thinking man’s’ golf course, with straight hitting, GIR (Greens in Regulation)  peppering (or smart scrambling) and putting on quickish Bentgrass greens all needed in the winners’ armory.

What we’re looking for this week:

When you see a particular course has a roll-call of winners attached to it that includes Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk, Zach Johnson, David Toms and Steve Stricker, you kind of know already about the type of player to be on the lookout for. Colonial serves straight hitters very well – even if they aren’t the longest off the tee. Kisner (last year’s winner) ranked first for Driving Accuracy last year, finding 71% of fairways, and yet was down at T39 for Driving Distance; an average of 293 yards.

Opportunities to let driver go really are few and far between at Colonial, and there is minimal advantage to the bombers with iron in hand, as they will need to rein in the power, especially on the dog-legged holes.

GIR numbers are crucial. Similarities with other tree-lined Par 70s on Tour abound, the likes of the Genesis Open and the Valspar Championship can be permed for correlations. Another correlation we’re finding is TPC Sawgrass. The likes of Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott have won at both venues, while the likes of David Toms, Zach Johnson and Kisner have won at Colonial and finished second at Sawgrass. Factor in Tim Clark, who won the Players and finished second here, and somebody like Webb Simpson, who of course has a Sawgrass triumph to his name and finished top-five at Colonial 12 months ago and one can accurately suggest that those that play well at Sawgrass figure to play well here. 

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Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at BET365 because of their cash-out option during the event:

To win outright:

 

J.J. Spaun 100-1

 

J.J. Spaun has miraculously missed the cut in six off his last nine events but when he does make it and is in form, look out. We kept a close eye on him last week and he’s very much under the radar because he’s been off the map so often lately but he woke up last week. Spaun really impressed with his ball striking in that T3 return at the Byron Nelson. Quality from tee-to-green has been the name of the game for the 27-year-old this term, who ranks a very impressive 10th on Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach. Those skills will be needed this week in holding these small Bentgrass greens, and whether of any consequence or not, he finished solo second at the RSM Classic earlier this year; an event which Kisner and Kirk, two former champions at Colonial, have both triumphed in. Spaun also ranks 17th in Par 4 Scoring Average and 39th in SG: Tee-to-Green. It’s also been said that Spaun has “the best” hands on TOUR, meaning his touch around the course and greens is second to nobody. In these wide open events, Spaun is worth serious consideration at this price and we’re on it. (Risking 0.2 units to win 20 units). 

 

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Shubhankar Sharma 160-1

 

“I feel happy and rejuvenated after a three week break. I want to thank organizers and @PGATOUR for giving me another chance to play on the biggest stage of golf. I will give my best, as always”.  Those were the words of Sharma on Twitter, who clearly recognized he needed some time away from the sport after spreading himself rather thin of late. The Indian had attracted plenty of attention for winning four times worldwide since the start of 2017, and that form earned him an invite to The Masters, where he missed the cut. Indeed, three missed weekends see Sharma listed as an also ran by the bookmakers this week, but believe us when we tell you he is so much better than that. Remember instead the 54-hole lead at WGC Mexico, and with a nice, long rest under his belt the 21-year-old will be looking to show everyone Stateside exactly what he can do. When he’s made the cut, Sharma finished 14th, 7th, 9th and 1st over his last made-the-cut four events and brings some impressive SG: Off the Tee, SG; Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green stats with him (Risking 0.2 units to win 32 units).

 

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Ryan Blaum 250-1

 

Call this a throwaway bet but we’re always on the lookout for bombs and this week, Blaum is it. When he makes the cut, Ryan Blaum typically converts into something meaningful. So in 18 appearances on Tour this term he’s made the cut in eight, but of those, he has four top-25 finishes and a pair of top-10s, thus, a 25% hit rate is very good indeed. Really, it’s about finding layouts that suit his short hitting style, and clearly Colonial does that. He finished T24 here last year, and returned T10 and T16 at the Sony Open and Valspar Championship respectively. It may also surprise you to learn that Blaum ranks 22nd ON TOUR in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 30th in Driving Accuracy. Combine that with everything else mentioned and he’s certainly worthy of a small bet at this price (Risking 0.2 units to win 50 units). 

 

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Head-to-head Matchups for Fort Worth Invitational

 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS for Fort Worth Invitational

 

The H2H wagers below are for 72 holes:

 

#7037 Danny Lee +113 over Beau Hossler Pinnacle

First off, Hossler lives in Dallas (about a 30-mile drive to Colonial) and went to school at The University of Texas so he knows these parts well and he’s also made a name for himself on tour with three second place finishes over the past year, not to mention six straight cuts made but this is not a suitable course for him. Hossler missed the cut here last year. He also missed the cut at the correlated Valspar Championship this past March. At Sawgrass two weeks ago, another correlated course, Hossler finished a pedestrian 47th. This course is not suitable for Hossler because he’s somewhat wayward off the tee and gets into too much trouble. Bogeys await him and while he can scramble, chip and putt as well as anyone when his game is flowing, there is not extra room here to please his eyes. We also love that Pinnacle Sports has Hossler matched up against a rather unknown that is way off the radar in Danny Lee. When Pinnacle does that, the unknown usually emerges ahead.

Danny Lee has missed the cut in nine of his last 14 events. The question must be asked -- why does Pinnacle have him matched up against Beau Hossler when they could have chosen someone else or even left Danny Lee’s name off the board. You seldom see pros with so many recent missed cuts make the head-to-head matchups because the sportsbooks so not want to expose themselves. Were strongly suggesting that Danny Lee is the prudent choice here. Something of a specialist, Danny Lee finished 6th here last season, T22 two years ago year and T10 twelve months prior to that, so some nice trends are converging for the 27-year-old. Excellent off the tee both in terms of length and accuracy, if Lee’s tee-to-green game can match that of his efforts here 12 months ago – he gained +2.467 strokes from T2G – then another handy showing at Colonial is a distinct possibility. Lee also finished 7th at correlated Sawgrass two weeks ago and is primed to have another great showing here (Risking 2 units to win 2.26 units).

#7048 J.J. Spaun +113 over Martin Laird Pinnacle

If we wagered on Spaun to win this event (see above), we can surely get on board with him to beat Martin Laird. Laird missed the cut last week at the Byron Nelson. Last year at Colonial, he also missed the cut. At Colonial in 2016? You guessed it, he missed the cut then too. The last time Laird made the cut at Colonial was back in 2015 in which he finished T55. In between all that, at correlated courses, Laird missed the cut at the Valspar this year and last and also missed the cut at Sawgrass last year before finishing 57th there two weeks ago. Course suitability does not favor Laird here, as he’s found these “thinking man’s courses” to be difficult to navigate. A 14-year pro and now 36-years of age, we see nothing in Laird’s game at this course or correlated one’s that suggests he’s finally going to figure this course out and he’s very average to begin with (Risking 2 units to win 2.26 units).

#7018 Jason Dufner -101 over Aaron Wise Pinnacle

Aaron Wise slayed the Byron Nelson last week by pretty much going gate to wire without being threatened on Sunday. He took a lead into the final round and even after a four-hour rain delay, he still looked like the most composed pro out there and perhaps the most composed 21-year-old on the planet. Aaron Wise put himself on the golf map and will he heard from again but it’s not likely to happen this week. A massive letdown often follows a first-time victory. Wise has earned a two-year exemption and an invitation to all the majors as well. He’s a kid that just won on TOUR and now has celebrity status as a result. We cannot overstate how overwhelming the past few days had to be for him and now he’s being thrown right back out there just a few days later and likely without much sleep and a completely different mindset. Wise is a first-timer at Colonial and the predictable letdown deserves time and space.

The improvement in Jason Dufner’s putting has been so stratospheric that it isn’t hard to imagine him entering the winner’s circle here. He’s gone from looking like he could miss from anywhere to returning positive strokes gained figures with the flat stick in hand, and while he missed a few sitters at Sawgrass , he still ranked third for SG: Putting. The Duf-man summed up his new confidence perfectly, “‘Everybody wants to talk about the 3 feet I missed on the last hole, but nobody wants to talk about the 270 feet made that had put me in that position. #movingonwithlife. That clear sense of perspective bodes well ahead of a trip to Colonial, where he has finished T2 and T6 within the last four years. It’s a layout that is perfectly suited to his neat-and-tidy game, and like Simpson before him, you would expect a putting improvement to bear fruit for the Dufner sooner or later (Risking 2.02 units to win 2). 

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Others to consider to win outright or for DFS (Daily Fantasy):

 

Horse for the Course is

 

Webb Simpson:

 

Just typing the words Webb Simpson and top-tier pick next to each other feels strange, but it has to be said that the former US Open champion has reasserted himself as a player of some note with victory at THE PLAYERS Championship just two weeks ago. It was a victory of such comfort – he led by seven heading into the final round, before eventually winning by four – that we simply have to describe it as an elite level performance, at an otherwise tricky course that Simpson tore to shreds. With doubts about Spieth’s putter, Rahm’s current form and Fowler’s suitability for the test, Webb appears to be very much a live contender this week, and if he brings a level of golf akin to what we saw at Sawgrass, then he will surely contend once more. He loves Colonial, that’s for sure. He led after 36 holes here in 2016 and after 54 last year, and with the added confidence that will come from his PLAYERS success, perhaps that will provide the next step he needs to slip into that plaid jacket. We can’t imagine Simpson not thriving here. 

 

Others to consider:

 

Brook Koepka

 

Koepka enjoys playing in Texas, having finished second in the Texas Open and Byron Nelson in the past few years, and his return to elite-level golf continued at pace last time out in THE PLAYERS Championship. He finished T11 despite some troubles with the drink at the famous 17th, and still found time to finish off with a round of 63 – one of the tournament’s best. Assuming he can continue in that vein at a course where he should do well, there’s no reason why the US Open champion can’t return with a bang this week. He will club down off the tee – hopefully that will solve the problem of his occasionally errant driving, and allow hi strengths, notably his approach play, shine. 

 

Xander Schauffele 

 

He's executing with the kind of mold-breaking form with which Jon Rahm crashed onto the PGA TOUR. Schauffele's latest example occurred at TPC Sawgrass where he pieced together four good rounds for a share of second place. That's the kind of thing that's not supposed to happen for debutants on that course. The rise has been remarkable, too. At this time last year, the then-PGA TOUR rookie was outside the top 335 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Today, he's 23rd.

 

Pat Perez

 

It’s testament to how far Perez has fallen that he has gone from being a PGA TOUR winner to a $7,300 DFS afterthought in the space of barely six months but we’re not willing to give up on the old dog yet, and he should enjoy a return to the southern parts of the US this week. After all, he’s Arizonan born and bred and has a win in Mexico to his name. Those missed cuts on his recent resumé look off putting, but there’s context to be had: an opening round of 73 at Augusta is respectable enough, he was one off the mark at the Texas Open and while he missed by two at the Players he closed with a -2 round of 70; not too shabby at all. In between all that, he finished second with Dufner at the Zurich Classic, so perhaps Perez isn’t far away from finding that key ingredient which propels him back up the leaderboard.

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Resutls:

Wagers lost

3 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -0.6 units

Jason Dufner -101 over Aaron Wise  = -2.02 units

J.J. Spaun +113 over Martin Laird = - 2 units

Wagers won

#7037 Danny Lee +113 over Beau Hossler 

Therefore, 4.62 units in losses - 2.26 units in win = a total net loss for this event of 2.36 units 

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They offer win-only odds in the outrights and for the PGA, European, Champions and LPGA Tours only, but they make up for this in terms of value in their matchups. They consistently offer unique tournament matchups for the PGA which at 10-20 cent lines and no ties are the best on offer in the business.