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Posted Wednesday, May 2 at 3:15 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is May 3 at 7:30 AM EST. 

Wells Fargo Championship

This Week's Course Preview

Quail Hollow is so well respected on Tour that it was selected to host last year’s PGA Championship, and it is not hard to see why. Complex enough to provide an excellent challenge, but not too difficult in that the game becomes a real grind, Quail Hollow is protected by its prodigious length: typically 7,560 yards for its Par 72, the layout was actually lengthened for the PGA Championship. Short hitters need not apply.

Designed by George Cobb – the man responsible for Augusta National’s Par 3 course and East Lake (home to the TOUR Championship), among others – and re-worked by Tom Fazio, Quail Hollow used to be heavily tree-lined although is less so these days after a number of trees were removed. This is an undulating, parklands style layout, and in 2014 the greens were changed from Bentgrass to Bermuda. The course contains one of the most devilish concluding trio of holes in golf. The ‘Green Mile’, as it is aptly named, features a 500+ yard Par 4 with water in play off the tee and on approach (16th), a Par 3 which features an approach onto an island green that must carry some 200 yards of water (17th), and a closing Par 4 with water running the entire length of the left-hand side of the hole and a sloped green with hazards left, right and at the back. One has to survive this golfing gauntlet to win this event. 

Last Year's Results from the Wells Fargo Championship

It’s one thing knowing you need a birdie at the last to win your second PGA TOUR title, and quite another to go out there and make it happen but that’s exactly what Brian Harman did 12 months ago at Eagle Point, ramming home a 28-footer at the last to win by one stroke from Dustin Johnson and Pat Perez. It was Masters champion, Patrick Reed, who led the field heading into Sunday’s final round – there a 75 saw him drop out of the top-10 places, while Jon Rahm and Alex Noren, who trailed Reed by one, could not capitalize when posting 71 and 77 respectively.

What we’re looking for this week:

The key to taming Quail Hollow is length off the tee, and lots of it. Nobody could accuse former winners like Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and JB Holmes of being short hitters, and even the likes of Lucas Glover, Sean O’Hair and James Hahn – also former champions here – are sneaky long. The removal of a number of trees has aided the cause of the bombers.

Dropping bombs off the tee generally comes with missed fairways, so a decent recovery game and powers of scrambling are ideal, and as ever you aren’t going to win a tournament like this with a decent field unless you gain some strokes on the greens. The good news is that there isn’t a huge amount that links the most recent Quail Hollow winners: Thomas, James Hahn, McIlroy, Holmes and Derek Ernst. This is just one of those weeks where if every aspect of a golf game is working well then magic things can happen and it opens the door for a longshot to enter.

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Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at BET365 because of their cash-out option during the event:

To win outright:

 

Sam Burns 150-1

 

This hugely impressive 21-year-old picked up his first Web.com  Tour win earlier in April in Georgia, and as there’s a definite link between southcoast form and success at Quail Hollow. We’ll also note that Burns is a Louisianan by birth who has become a Texan by residence. Even at such a young age Burns is ticking boxes. Professional victory? Check. Top 10 in a PGA TOUR event? Check. Playing your final round with Tiger Woods? Check. He finished T8 at the Honda Classic and had Tiger for company – a real measure of this young man’s character that he was able to compile a 68 in such illustrious company. He followed up with T12 at the Valspar Championship a week later, too. His Average Driving Distance is 310.5 yards. His Greens in Regulation are at 71.08%, and his Putts Per GIR are 1.74. Long off the tee and an excellent putter, if Burns can work out the bit in the middle who knows how far he can go but at 150-1, we’re willing to find out (Risking 0.2 units to win 30 units). 

 

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Byeong Hun An 70-1

 

We’ve backed this Korean a few times and he’s someone who appears to be worth preserving with. Huge off the tee, An also possesses a lovely touch around the green (37th for SG: Approach-the-Green), and if he could get his putter going, he really would be some player. An finished 33 rd at the Masters in 2016. He finished 24th at on this course at the PGA Championship last year and finished 8th at the Wells Fargo two weeks prior. An also has a 6th place finish, a 23rd place finish, a 5th place finish, a 14th place finish and a 7th place finish in five of his last seven stroke play events at the Dubai Desert Classic, Phoenix Open, Honda Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Heritage at Harbour Town respectively. This is a great pro on the verge of a win at a great price (Risking 0.2 units to win 14 units). 

 

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Joaquin Niemann 125-1

 

Joaquin Niemann turned pro two weeks ago at the Houston Open and instead of being overwhelmed by the moment, the kid turned in an incredible performance on Saturday and Sunday after settling in on Thursday and Friday. Niemann closed like a boss at TPC San Antonio with a pair of 67s on the weekend to finish sixth. Even better, he ranked eighth in distance of all drives, which was the initial (mild) concern in his professional debut. This kid is the real deal that is going to find the winner’s circle soon but the trick is to grab him at these great prices before the market catches on.  (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

 

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Denny McCarthy 300-1

 

We just have to get behind this guy at this price because if he wins, we’d be upset if we didn’t pass it on. Denny McCarthy had a great amateur career. He played the U.S Open as an amateur back in 2015 at Chambers Bay and finished 42nd. He turned pro soon after in the fall and is finding his footing fast. Great with the putter, McCarthy has made four straight cuts while finishing 4th, 43rd, 20th and 25th respectively. That’s a top-25 in three of his last four events. Chances are that McCarthy won’t win this week but he’s priced way too high and stranger things have happened. (Risking 0.2 units to win 60 units).

 

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Head-to-head Matchups for the Wells Fargo Championship

 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS for the Wells Fargo Championship

 

The H2H wagers below are for 72 holes:

 

#7044 Byeong Hun An -102 over Gary Woodland Pinnacle

We previewed Byeong Hun An in our picks to win outright section and if we like his chances to win, we certainly like his chances to finish ahead of Gary Woodland. Woodland is getting some love because of his success here in the past but that’s an angle we continue to exploit and do well, as the market puts way too much emphasis on pros with good results on a specific course. We could give you literally hundreds of examples of pros with great results at a certain course that shit the bed when they were out of form and Woodland is out of form. Quail Hollow sets up as the kind of test where golfers should not expect to find their games. Since winning at the Phoenix Open, Woodland has been MIA with four missed cuts in seven events and three missed cuts in his last four events. Other than a T29 at the World Matchplay (which we don’t even count), Woodland’s other two events besides the four missed cuts was a 49th and 50th place finish. Even in the unlikely event that Woodland finds his game, he still shouldn’t be favored over Byeong Hun An (Risking 2.04 units to win 2 units).

#7026 Louis Oosthuizen +114 over Tommy Fleetwood Pinnacle

Tommy Fleetwood is world class. This is a pro that rarely misses the cut and almost always has good rounds. However, what Fleetwood has not been able to do is dominate on the main tour like he did on the European Tour. Last year at the PGA Championship at this exact course, Fleetwood finished 61st while Louis finished 2nd. Almost a year ago at the PGA Sawgrass in Florida, Fleetwood finished 41st while Louis finished second again. Oosthuizen just finished 12th at the Masters (Fleetwood finished 17th) and Louis followed that up with a 3rd place finish last week at the Zurich Classic. This is a world class talent with great course form, great current form that has finished ahead of Fleetwood in three straight events that they have both played in and in six of the past eight events they have both played in. Louis is on the verge of a win and if he was higher than 35-1, we would be all over him to win outright. We’ll settle with a bet on him to beat Fleetwood (Risking 2 units to win 2.28 units).

#7031 Xander Schauffele -108 over Charles Howell III Pinnacle

In his last start, Charles Howell finished 55th at Harbour Town. He makes the cut often but he rarely does anything significant in elite fields and has plenty of finishes in the 30 to 45th range over the past few years. Chucky-Three-Sticks hasn’t won since 2007. He hasn’t played at Quail Hollow since 2015, which is an indication that he’s becoming less comfortable on this long course as he gets up there in age. While Chucky-Three-Sticks has a decent history at this course, it’s not going to deter us from fading him with a younger and up and coming talent like the one’s he’s matched up against here. 

What a year 2017 was for Xander Schauffele. In his first term as a PGA TOUR pro, he won twice – including the season ending TOUR Championship – and was named Rookie of the Year. Equally as impressive was his turn in the US Open. On debut in a major, he shot a round of 66 – the first time in that tournament’s history such an occurrence had happened and in turn he became one of only 15 men to get to -10 in a US Open. If you needed any further hint that Schauffele is the real deal, that was it. His long, straight hitting should suit Quail Hollow and there are little bits of form of late – T9 at the Genesis Open, T17 at the Phoenix Open and a 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finish over five consecutive events late last fall. Xander is being sold short here because he struggled at the texas Open but so what. The extra week rest figures to serve him well and anytime we can get him evenly priced against Howell, it’s a bet we would make 100% of the time. (Risking 2.16 units to win 2 units).

#7027 Bryson DeChambeau -120 over Brooks Koepka Pinnacle

While we hate to spot more than -110, this one must be played because Bryson DeChambeau is an elite talent that is in great form while Brooks Koepka is neither. DeChambeau has three top-5 finishes in his last five events, which includes a second place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a third place finish at the Heritage Open in South Carolina. DeChambeau has only played this course once before back in 2015 and missed the cut but that was then and this is now.

As easily as it is to dismiss Brooks Koepka missing the cut (with Marc Turnesa) in New Orleans because of a long layoff, there wasn’t any signs that he’s about to get hot. Prior to last week, Koepka last played in January. Prior to that, he last played an event in November. That’s one event in November, one in January and one in April and he’s going to have to prove to us that the rust is gone before we get behind him (Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units).

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Others to consider to win outright or for DFS (Daily Fantasy):

 

Horse for the Course is

Tony Finau:

 

When taking a horse for the Course we want to make sure our horse makes the cut and we don’t see Finau missing this one. If you were in any doubt as to the talents of Tony Finau, surely a top-10 finish on debut in The Masters has put those to bed.  When he’s not becoming an international celebrity for dislocating his ankle when celebrating a hole-in-one, Finau plays a mean game of golf and yet he has one solitary PGA TOUR title, the low-class Puerto Rico Open, to call upon from 2016. But you suspect he will win again sooner or later, and a course like Quail Hollow, where he is afforded plenty of room off the tee should suit. The 28-year-old has already finished second twice this season, and he is only a hot putter away from going one better. Long off the tee, Finau is more affordable than guys like Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy for instance but he has just as good a chance as anyone here to come up with a great score. 

 

Others to consider:

 

Ryan Moore

 

Moore has finished inside the top-20 in four of his last six visits to Quail Hollow – two of those being top-10s, and that is handy information given that he heads to North Carolina in fine fettle this week. Four top-10s in his last nine starts tells you all you need to know about Moore’s confidence levels, and like a few others on Tour, if he can drop a few putts, you suspect he’s not a million miles away from the winner’s enclosure. Not the longest on Tour, the good news is that Moore can still mix it here even with the added length; he was a more-than-respectable T13 at the PGA Championship here in 2017.

 

Grayson Murray

 

Murray has two professional wins to his name in as many years, and so any event that lets his main strength shine (length off the tee) while negating his glaring weakness (driving accuracy) holds appeal. Even for somebody that is so wild off the tee, there is a fantastic consistency to Murray’s game. He’s only missed 3/14 cuts, and in those starts has an impressive top-25 finish rate of 50%. But it’s taking his game to the next level that will bring the North Carolinan his second PGA TOUR victory, and you wonder if a return to home soil might just be the catalyst – he was T6 here after 54 holes in the PGA Championship last year after all.

 

Key Stats:

Approaches from 200 yards – 17th

Driving Distance – 22nd

Putting Average – 22nd

Murray is worth investing in.

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Results:

Wagers lost:

4 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -0.8 units

Xander Schauffele -108 over Charles Howell III - 2.16 units

Wagers won

Bryson DeChambeau -120 over Brooks Koepka = +2 units

Louis Oosthuizen +114 over Tommy Fleetwood = +2.28 units

Byeong Hun An -102 over Gary Woodland = +2 units

Therefore 6.28 units in wins - 2.96 in losses = a net profit of 3.32 units for this event. 

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