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Posted Wednesday, April 18 at 2:00 PM EST. 

Cutoff time for this event is April 19 at 8:10 AM EST. 

Valero Texas Open

This Week's Course Preview

The first thing to note about TPC San Antonio is that it is hard – very hard. The lowest winning score since 2010 is -14, the highest -8, and a mean winning total of -11 gives a flavor of the challenge awaiting the players this week. There are a number of reasons for the complexity. The players have room off the tee but the native areas of rough that designer Greg Norman has left to grow can be a nuisance, and of course, the wind is a huge factor. Largely exposed, the layout gets buffeted by the Texan breeze and makes lofted approach shots particularly tricky.

Measuring 7,435 yards for its Par 72, most of the downhill holes play into the wind, so this is a long course both by design and in nature. Longer hitters do tend to thrive here, although their advantage is negated somewhat by the fact that only one of the four Par 5’s is reachable in two for players of any length. The Bermuda greens run reasonably quick at around 11 on the stimpmeter, and all-in-all it will take an outstanding effort from tee-to-green and with putter in hand to lift the Valero Texas Open trophy come Sunday. 

What we’re looking for this week:

It’s going to be a tough grind this week, and with the players unable to overpower the Par 5s scoring opportunities will be kept to a minimum. TPC San Antonio is a layout where there is room off the tee but knowing where to miss the fairway is key; as mentioned, the natural rough stuff is not pleasant. Kevin Chappell (last year’s winner) only found 59% of fairways last year, but still managed to translate that into 72% of greens hit (he ranked third for GIR), and so scrambling will also play a part, as arguably does going long off the tee: Chappell, Tony Finau, Kevin Tway and Brooks Koepka are no strangers to getting the ball out there.

The greens are relatively flat but typically hard and fast, which is perhaps why Texans tend to thrive in their home tournament; 9 of the last 22 champions here have some kind of Texan connection. And the wind….that can never be ignored around here, and that plus the fast conditions perhaps explains why the Australians tend to do so well around this stretch. Adam Scott and Steven Bowditch are former winners, and Aaron Baddeley and Cameron Smith both finished inside the top-six last year. As for correlating courses, look to wind-affected layouts in typically hot locations. Greg Norman also designed El Camaleon, the host of the OHL Classic, and a number of players – Charley Hoffman, Pat Perez, John Huh – have thrived at both. 

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Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at BET365 because of their cash-out option during the event:

To win outright:

 

Tom Hoge 150-1

 

What is it with Tom Hoge and poor final round performances? Three times in a couple of months – the Genesis Open, the Houston Open and last week’s RBC Heritage – has he undone his fine early work by stinking the place out on Sunday. He’s another who, if he could just string together four good rounds, has no glass ceiling; as evidenced by his T3 finish at the Sony Open earlier in the season. Normally excellent from tee to green, Hoge, who studied in Texas, will be looking forward to a return to his old stomping ground, where he finished T9 back in 2016. Here’s a guy that ranks 28th ON TOUR in scrambling and 35th in SG: Approach and might just be on the verge of something good. We played Hoge last week and have no qualms whatsoever about coming right back on him here at these playable prices (Risking 0.2 units to win 30 units).  

 

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Julian Suri 66-1

 

Suri is another not so well name to keep an eye on. If the field was stronger this week, surely this rather unknown would be much closer to 100-1 but that’s not such a bad thing, as he can take advantage of that. In his last start on the PGA TOUR, Suri finished T8 at the Houston Open and so, in a weaker field he can go even better this week. The New Yorker has two professional titles to his name on the European Tour (and associated Challenge Tour) and so certainly knows how to get the job done. Long off the tee, the former All-American collegiate has spoken of his desire to gain full GA Tour status and a victory in San Antonio will surely provide the platform for Suri to do exactly that. This kid is a great talent that will be much better known in a very short time (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units). 

 

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Nick Taylor 250-1

 

Talk about a sleeper.  Cast your mind back 24 months and you may or may not remember Nick Taylor’s fantastic showing at San Antonio. He may only have finished T21, but on the Friday-Saturday he played unrivalled golf: his round of 68 on the Friday was only bettered by one, while on the Saturday his 66 was the best of the day. Last year, Taylor followed that great showing with another one, as he finished 22nd. Course form is terrific but current is not, as Taylor has missed four cuts in a row but he had a 9th, 13th, 23rd, and 20th place finishes in four of seven events from October of last year to January of this year. When he makes the cut, he’s dangerous and should be right in his prime now, as he turned 30 years old this week (April 17). Let’s leave out his last four cuts made, as Taylor says he’s been working on fine tuning some things and recognize that prior to that, more than half of his last 25 rounds have ended under par while ranking 18th ON TOUR in Par 5 Scoring Average, 32nd in Total Birdies and 87th in Driving Distance. Last year at this event, Taylor was an 80-1 shot, played very well and shot 286, which left him T-22 and this year he is better than three times that price. We’ll risk a little bit less because we have another bomb we want to play for 0.1 units also (Risking 0.1 units to win 25 units).  

 

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Talor Gooch 200-1

 

Gooch is the other bomb we suggest playing, as he grew up and went to University in windy Oklahoma so knows how to play in the breeze. Looking at his scorecards this year shows a real mixed bag but what stands out for this market is that he's very capable of going low when he gets on a roll. We saw that when he teed off with a 65 to sit second after day one of the Arnold Palmer Invitational two starts ago and that followed another R1 65 at the CareerBuilder Challenge and an even better 64 in round one of the Sony Open. Even when he missed the cut at Pebble Beach, Gooch had posted a 67 on Thursday to be sitting tied for eighth. While not in the first round, but back in November he shot 77-64 on the weekend to again highlight his ability to shoot the lights out despite a poor previous 18. The fact that he throws in plenty of 74s, 75s and 76s doesn't seem to bother him so let's hope he can make another early impression and keep it going from there (Risking 0.1 units to win 20 units). 

 

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John Huh 90-1

 

This 27-year-old has twice finished inside the top-five of the Texas Open and is a former OHL Classic champion, and given that he roared back to form with an opening round of 66 at the RBC Heritage, his selection this week at this price looks pretty sweet to us. In fairness to Huh, he has been in form for a while. He’s made the weekend in 11 of his last 13 starts, and other than a missed cut at the Valspar Championship he has finished no lower than T32 in his last five starts. What does he need to do to take his game to the next level? Find more greens, it’s as simple as that. He is excellent with putter in hand, so all he needs to do is create more opportunities. If he can, there is no glass ceiling for Huh (Risking 0.2 units to win 18 units).  

 

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Kevin Streelman 66-1

 

With each passing year it gets easier to forget past achievements, and while the past few years have not been all that kind to Kevin Streelman, he at least knows that he possesses the winner’s poise under pressure. He’s a two-time PGA TOUR champion, and the second (the Travelers Championship in 2014) you may recall featured seven straight birdies on the back nine of his final round – a PGA TOUR record. Streelman is so good that he has made 22 top-25 finishes in the past three seasons alone. In 2017, he banked decent cheques at the OHL Classic (T4), the Travelers (T8), the Memorial (T13), and Dean & Deluca (T18), which is the kind of consistency that took him through to the second week of FedExCup playoffs. Streelman is solid off the tee (18th for Total Driving) and on approach (6th for approaches from 100-125 yards), and so all he needs is his putter to heat up for the whole set and that is looking good too. He's perfect in four trips to TPC San Antonio and fresh off a T7 at Harbour Town where no one went lower than his 7-under 135 on the weekend. He sits second in ball-striking, fourth in scrambling and first in bogey avoidance. We would be betting him in H2H play but he’s -145 over Russell Knox at Pinny and 5DIMES and he’s not matched up at BET365. If you can get him at a good price in a H2H-matchup, bet it (Risking 0.2 units to win 13.2 units).  

 

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Head-to-head Matchups for the Valero Texas Open

 

Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at Pinnacle 

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS for the Valero Texas Open

 

The quality of talent at this level is getting better every year and there are literally between 45 and 50 golfers every event that have a truly legit chance to win but we can’t bet them all. To pick a winner outright is a big time challenge but the real money in these events is in the head-to-head challenges and that’s where our bread and butter will be earned. We may post daily head-to-heads as well so keep your eye out for those. In the meantime, the H2H wagers below are for 72 holes:

 

#7003 Ryan Moore -108 over Kevin Chappell Pinnacle

Kevin Chappell was the champ at this event last year and that’s the reason we get a bargain on Ryan Moore to beat him. Chappell got very luck last year, as he was all over the map with his tee-shots but made some miraculous recoveries to get very lucky. He hit just 59% of greens in regulation. Chappell had a round of 81 at this course before and he’s not in great form either with missed cuts in back-to-back events.

Ryan Moore, by contrast is in great form with a 16th at Harbour Town, a 28th at Augusta and a 5th at Bay Hill over his last three events. It was a strange old four days for Ryan Moore at Augusta. He put a run of birdies together at times, and then really struggled to keep his ball in play at others but a finish of T28 is a decent effort, by all accounts. Moore also finished 18th here last season. Accurate off the tee, he should give himself an excellent chance of locating these greens by playing out of the short stuff. A brilliant chipper, the 35-year-old is a decent putter under pressure, and has five PGA TOUR titles to prove it (Risking 2.16 units to win 2). 

#7023 Dylan Frittelli -104 over Jason Kokrak Pinnacle

Jason Kokrak is getting some love from a lot of folks that write about golf DFS because he’s performed well at this course in the past but we could not care less, as he’s also had some rough rounds here and he’s in terrible form right now. Kokrak has missed the cut three events in a row (he missed three round cut at Houston Open) with four of his last seven rounds being a 74 or worse. He made the cut here last year (barely) and ended up T67 and also missed the cut at this event two years ago. Jason Kokrak is fighting it right now and this is not the course to be off the rails in.   

Meanwhile, Dylan Frittelli is a former NCAA champion at the University of Texas that often seems to play his best golf in windy conditions, and so a return to his college stomping ground could be timely for the South African. That fantastic college career has given way to an excellent start as a fully-fledged professional. Frittelli has won twice on the European Tour – including the breezy Mauritius Open earlier in the year – and he appears to have a very calm head on his shoulders when in contention. A fantastic desert golfer, as evidenced by T5 and T6 Maybank Championship and Dubai Desert Classic earlier in the season, Frittelli also bagged a top-five return at another Greg Norman property – the Jumeirah Estates – at the European Tour’s season-ending DP World Tour Championship back in the winter. He hits 71% of GIR and has an average driving distance of 310 yards so everything is in order for a strong showing. Frittelli performed below expectations in Houston where he projected to contribute across the board and now that most are jumping off, we’re going to jump on (Risking 2.08 units to win 2). 

#7039 Beau Hossler +104 over Zach Johnson Pinnacle

Zach Johnson is dangerous because he does a lot of things well but that imprecise putting and 13 straight cuts made says a bad event is waiting. Johnson has missed the cut twice in five trips to this event so it’s not like he’s been slaying it here. Aside from that, Hossler is too good to be the underdog here.

You sense that Hossler, who lives in Dallas, is going to enjoy his return to home soil. The University of Texas graduate lost out in a playoff to Ian Poulter at the Houston Open last time he was home, and the most appetizing part of his chances is just how well he putted last week at the RBC Heritage, ranking first for SG: Putting. A hot putter is welcome anywhere, of course, and TPC San Antonio should suit his game. A little wayward off the tee, the extra room here will please him, and he can scramble, chip and putt as well as anyone when his game is flowing. Hossler ranks 10th ON TOUR in SG: Putting and 34th in Scrambling and is a great value play to finish ahead of ZJ. (Risking 2 units to win 2.08 units).

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Others to consider to win outright or for DFS (Daily Fantasy):

 

Horse for the Course is

Xander Schauffele:

 

Going back to his win at the TOUR Championship, he's gone 12 consecutive (stroke-play) starts with a score or par or better in an opening round. Slots eighth in first-round scoring average, so he's unlocked the combination to merge patience with aggression. To wit, since missing the cut in his debut at TPC San Antonio last year, he's missed only three cuts. Probably best known for his putting, he ranks a seriously impressive eighth in distance of all drives, so there are numerous angles from which the 2016-17 Rookie of the Year can attack and excel.

 

Others to consider:

 

Abraham Ancer 

 

Born and raised in Texas with dual US-Mexican heritage, Ancer showed in his top-10 return at the Houston Open that he enjoys returning home. That followed a pair of top-20 finishes at the Valspar Championship and Punta Cana Corales Championship, so everything is trending in the right direction for the 27-year-old. With TPC San Antonio not proving to be that penal if you stray from the tee, Ancer’s clever short game and scrambling really could come into fruition this week, as he ranks 24th ON TOUR in Scrambling. 

 

Scott Piercy 

 

Somebody who ranks first for Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th for SG: Tee-to-Green, at this point in the campaign, has clearly been playing some excellent golf for quite some time. Maybe this week is when Scott Piercy finally cashes in. Having recorded top-five’s at both the OHL Classic and Sony Open, there is plenty to get excited about even if Piercy’s form at the Texas Open is mixed, at best. Six of Piercy’s last eight rounds have been under par, and you don’t finish T2 in a US Open if you can’t grind and scrap at tougher courses. A three-time PGA TOUR winner, Piercy has all the tools to go well this week. He ranks 1 st ON TOUR in SG: Approach, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 14th in Par Scoring Average

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TOTAL RISK FOR THIS tournament is 7.24 units and we'll update it when the event is official. 

RESULTS:

WAGERS LOST

5 golfers to win outright @ 0.2 units each = -1 unit

#7039 Beau Hossler +104 over Zach Johnson = -2 units

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WAGERS WON:

#7023 Dylan Frittelli -104 over Jason Kokrak = +2 units

#7003 Ryan Moore -108 over Kevin Chappell = +2 units

Therefore 4 units in wins - 3 units in losses = a net profit of 1 unit for this event. 

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