Pinnacle +7½ -104 BET365 +7½ -115 SportsInteraction -7½ -110 BetOnline +8½ -115 Bookmaker

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

OTTAWA +7½ -104 over Hamilton

7:30 PM EST. Lots to discuss here so let’s start off with Ottawa being the dregs of the CFL right now, thus its stock is extremely low. We all know what that means….inflated points coming our way. That’s not a bad start but there is a lot more to dissect. 

Ottawa is coming off two blowout losses while allowing 96 points against over that span. In a season in which scoring is down in the CFL, allowing 96 points combined while losing by 22 and 32 points respectively will resonate in the market and assure us of inflated points. The last time we saw Ottawa, they lost to B.C by a score of 45-13. On paper that looks ugly but it is one of the more misleading scores you’ll ever see. Ottawa had 27 first downs to B.C’s 20. The Redblacks also had 362 yards passing and overall outgained the Lions. The difference was that the Redblacks turned it over three times and did so at the most inopportune times. They also coughed it up deep in their own end not once but twice. The beautiful part is that all the market sees is the final score, which provides us with this outstanding opportunity but it gets even better. 

Hamilton played five days ago on Sept 17. That barely gives them time off for a cup of coffee. Aside from a very average showing despite beating the Stamps, 23-17, the Ticats are down to their third string QB not to mention several other key injuries. Regular readers of this space know we are not one to dwell on injuries because the market often overreacts to them but in this case, the market is not because Ottawa gets whacked weekly while Hamilton’s third-stringer started and won a ball game last week. To that we say, “Big fucking deal, as the Tigercats third string QB, David Watford, threw for a mere 149 yards the entire game. He was horrible but Calgary was worse. Hamilton did not win that game, as it was more a case of Calgary being extremely flat and losing it. 

Finally, Ottawa has had 10 days to prepare while Hamilton has had the equivalent of a long weekend to prepare. Ottawa’s QB, Dominique Davis has looked progressively better each week and now the Redblacks are not only in one of the best situational spots you’ll ever see in this league, they are taking back some grossly inflated points in a game we like them to win outright in. Massive overlay my friends.

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