Pinnacle +7 -111 BET365 +7 -110 SportsInteraction +7 -110 BetOnline +7 -110 Bookmaker +7 -110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

Calgary +7 -110 over WINNIPEG

7:00 PM EST. There are many reasons why the Blue Bombers are favored by a converted TD here but the main reason is that Calgary has a rookie QB making just his second career start. Secondly, the Blue Bombers are at home where they are 2-0 with two 13-point wins, one over Toronto and one over Hamilton. Also consider that the Stampeders have played all of their games at home this season and will play their first road game of the year. Thus far, Calgary is 1-2 with its only win occurring last week in Montreal as a 5-point underdog. It’s also worth noting that Montreal looked like rat shit on Friday night in a 17-point loss to the then winless Tigercats. Before that Hamilton/Montreal game, Winnipeg was a -4½ point choice today but the efficient market has spoken ever since to drive the price to the current price you see here. Winnipeg is also the defending Grey Cup Champs and that, too, has their stock inflated.

When we look deep into the numbers, we see a grossly overvalued Winnipeg team. This is a team that has punted the ball 27 times over its first three games for an average of 9 punts per game. Some teams don’t even get nine possessions in an entire game. Yeah, Winnipeg’s defense is decent (on paper) but their defense hasn’t looked better or more dominant than the rest of the CFL. Scoring is way down this year and Winnipeg’s offense is not good enough to be spotting a price like this to a Stamps’ team that not only got its first win of the year but received a big boost of confidence in the process.

As for the QB battle, we’d take Jake Maier 100% of the time over Winnipeg’s Zach Collaros. Collaros has 43 TD passes in his career with 31 interceptions for a horrible ratio. He’s been a backup for a few years and has only played five games (including three this year since the 2018 season). Meanwhile, Jake Maier looked shaky last week very early but then something clicked early in the second quarter and he started hitting his targets right between the numbers. He would go on to throw for over 300 yards in Calgary’s win over Montreal.

Frankly, there is nothing in the key stats department that reveals Winnipeg is worthy of spotting this many points. They are not dominating in any area, which includes offense, defense, run defense, pass defense, sacks for or against, yards per game and the list of their mediocrity goes on and on. In fact, the stats suggest the Stamps, not the Bombers are off to a strong start.

The four sacks Calgary has allowed through three games is the second-least in the league and they're opening up holes for their run game, as well. In yards gained, Winnipeg ranks 7th while Calgary ranks 4th. In two home games, Winnipeg has scored 29 lousy points. They beat Toronto not because they were better but because the Argonauts committed 13 penalties for over 120 yards which killed almost every offensive possession the Argos had. In a league where you only get three downs to make 10 yards, one offensive penalty is a killer.

The Bombers haven't found their identity on offense and their defense is overrated. That's enough for us to test the waters fading this team, as it lays a bloated price to Calgary’s undervalued rookie QB that has a golden arm and the confidence to go with it. Upset possibility.

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