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Edmonton @ B.C.
B.C. +3 -102 over Edmonton

Pinnacle +3 -102  BET365 +3½ -115 SportsInteraction +3½ -115  5DIMES +3½ -115 

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

10:00 PM EST. The books have not been having a great year in the CFL and it’s been over 15 years since we witnessed opening lines coming out so late in this sport because of it. However, if there was a game last week in which the books cleaned up, it was B.C.’s narrow, one-point victory over Toronto. The Lions opened as a -6½-point choice, closed at -8½ and needed a missed field goal on the last play of the game to win an ugly one, 18-17. The majority of the population bet the Lions that day and it would therefore be very difficult to come back on them here after witnessing that debacle. That creates this overreaction. 

One can excuse the Lions for being flat last week for many reasons. First, they were on the East Coast and it was a scorching hot day in an empty stadium in Toronto. There was seriously more atmosphere in a Tim Horton’s coffee shop than at BMO Field. Secondly, Mike Reilly and the Lions had this game up next. Reilly and the Lions opened the year against the Eskies, Reilly’s old team and the face of the franchise for years, and built a 17-3 halftime lead but then fell apart and lost 39-23. That game was in Edmonton but this one is not and we assure you that Reilly and the Lions will be better and highly motivated for this one. 

Truth be told, Edmonton has looked better than the Lions every week. Furthermore, the Eskimos were off last week so not only have they looked better than the 1-3 Lions but they’ve had two weeks to prepare while the Lions played on Saturday so they’ve had four days to prepare. It seems unfair to give Edmonton nine or 10 more days to get ready, especially with the hot weather making it more exhausting. Of note, Ottawa was in a similar position last week (rested against a non-rested team) and the Redblacks got buried.  

Finally, if we're making a prediction, it would be hard to get behind the dog here. Thing is, and we’ve said it many times in the past, we’re not in the prediction business. We’re in the value and overreaction business and in that regard, we’re going with the best of it here. Edmonton opened the year at home as a -3 point favorite over these same British Columbia Lions and now they’re spotting more on the road after just three games. Edmonton is not running over opponents either. The Eskies are 2-1 with its other victory also being in Edmonton over the Alouettes but as an -8-point choice, the Eskies did not cover. Additionally, the Eskimos are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak on the road dating back to last season so it’s not like they’re thriving on the road. The prudent play is to go against the overreaction and take the host plus the points, which is precisely what we’re going to do.  

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Our Pick

B.C. +3 -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

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