Winnipeg @ OTTAWA
OTTAWA -3½ -109 over Winnipeg

Pinnacle -3½ -109 BET365 -3½ -105 SportsInteraction -3½ -110 5DIMES -3½ -110 888Sport -4½ -114 

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:30 PM EST. The Blue Bombers are undefeated at 2-0 after a 28-21 win and cover over the Eskimos last week and they are certainly going to have some market appeal as a pooch here after getting the best of Ottawa for the better part of the last four years, which includes going 4-0 against the spread in the nation's capital dating back to 2015. Speedy receiver Lucky Whitehead made a significant impact last week against the Eskies after catching seven passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns including a 75-yard strike. His other major went for 41-yards. While the former Jet and Cowboy has made an impact with his new team, a closer look shows that he's been just about the only target that quarterback Matt Nichols can count on, as Whitehead made up 77.5% of the Blue Bombers offense in Week 3. A deeper dive into that box score shows many of the same warts that we saw in Winnipeg's Week 1 win over B.C. The reality is that the Bombers should probably have lost that game to the Esks by 30 after getting doubled up in first downs (29-to-14), crushed in net yards (445-to-283) and losing the turnover battle 3-0. There aren't many teams in football that can overcome those setbacks and still win and cover. The Blue Bombers were clearly outplayed last week, they were not the better team v B.C. in Week 1 either and you simply cannot keep winning when you’re the second best team on the field each week. 

The Redblacks were idle last week, but after a 2-0 start, they have to be considered a "surprise" out East after turning over most of their offensive stars from last year's Grey Cup finalists. Ottawa got some measure of payback by spoiling the Stampeders home opener in Week 1 and they outlasted the Roughriders 44-41 at home in Week 2. Ottawa did not cover that game as a 4½-point favorite, which is why this price on the Bombers this week is so enticing. How can 2-0 Winnipeg be in the same range as the winless Roughies? The difference here is that the Blue Bombers had high expectations entering the season, as many pundits picked them to compete with Calgary in the loaded West, while Ottawa was expected to take a back seat in a one-horse race that was apparently Hamilton's to lose. 

It's no secret that Pinnacle is the sharpest book on the planet and when this game hit their board, it stood out like a sore thumb. We looked high and low at every outfit that posted a number and the Redblacks were favored by 3½. On Pinny, that number was -4½, which means they were taking a position. We are always mindful when Pinnacle is encouraging action on one side or another and this game fits that bill to a T. Even if Pinny were offering +4 on the Bombers, that would be enough to entice anyone looking to bet Winnipeg to do it there, but this was a full point. Pinnacle wanted Blue Bombers bets and that's precisely what they got. Even today, you will pay extra vig to get the Blue Bombers +3½ at most books, while Pinny is offering them up at regular juice. We're not ones to tug on Superman's cape, so with that in mind, we're going to swallow these points and hope the Blue Bombers underlying struggles boil over here. Pinny says they will.

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Our Pick

OTTAWA -3½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)