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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

7:30 PM EST. More than any other sport, football is a game of over and underreactions because the teams play once a week only and one performance, be it good, bad or indifferent leaves a lasting impression. As we head into this Week 4 of the young CFL season, we have seen an inordinate amount of blowouts. The Hamilton Tigercats are 3-0 and have outscored their opposition by a combined and ridiculous 105-24 score over the past two games. How is that even possible? Last week as a 13-point favorite, the Tigercats ran over these same Alouettes by a score of 41-10 and now they’re the exact same price? That was easy money last week and anyone that bet the Als cannot and likely will not put themselves in that same position and suffer through another 60 minutes of hardship. Problem is, it just does not work that way. 

Forget the score. If Hamilton was a 13-point choice over Montreal in Hamilton, they cannot be the same price in Montreal six days later. Had this game been played last week in Montreal, Hamilton would’ve been a six-point choice and maybe less. We could break down the X’s and O’s and we know how it’s going to look. For anyone, including us, it’s not easy to wager on a team like Montreal. However, we want to point out that Montreal had a great first quarter last week and probably should have been up a few points as opposed to being 0-0 after one. Fact is, Montreal had almost as many first downs as Hamilton, they had more rushing yards and they held a massive edge in time of possession (37 mins to 23 mins). Hamilton got the big play and ran up the score. 

In terms of value, one is absolutely, 100% paying a serious premium to get behind the road chalk here and we cannot overstate enough how inflated the price here is. Don’t be surprised to see Montreal make this scary close and maybe even pull off the unthinkable. Take the points and run.

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