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Posted at 11:15 AM EST 

7:30 PM EST. As an eight-point dog last week (8½ at some joints) Ottawa went into Calgary and beat the Grey Cup favorite. As a four-point dog in Hamilton last week, Saskatchewan lost its starting QB, Zach Collaros, in the first minute of the game and lost by six points to the favorite in the East. Now the Redblacks go from a +8½ point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite in the span of five days. This is what is known as an overreaction.

We’re not sure what happened to the Stampeders last week after they took a 12-point lead into the second quarter but what we know for sure is that Ottawa’s new QB, Dominique Davis threw four interceptions. QB’s with four or more interceptions from 2001-2018 were 6-37 for a winning percentage of .140. Trust us when we tell you that Saskatchewan’s defense is better than Calgary’s. Calgary’s defense is loaded with many new defenders that have never played together and it showed while the Riders defense is stacked with plenty of experience and talent, particularly up front and in the secondary. That showed too.

Half of Ottawa’s 26 first downs last week came on just two first-half drives for TD’s. The Redblacks trailed by 15 points at one point but for whatever reason, the Stamps stopped playing and got caught. Ottawa’s rookie QB did not look good (except when he ran the ball) and is now being asked to spot a margin after an unlikely win.  

Meanwhile, Saskatchewan led the CFL with a time of possession mark of 36:05 vs. Hamilton last week. That’s impressive and so is holding the Tigercats offense to 23 points while keeping them off the field. We absolutely like the look of the Riders new coaching staff and had their kicker not botched up everything last week, they likely would have emerged victorious. In a year in which parity looks like a strong narrative, Saskatchewan is taking back a sweet price here in a game we’re calling them to win outright in. Finally, Saskatchewan played exactly one week ago while the Riders played on Saturday so give the visitors two extra days of practice in the second week of the season. That, too, is a big edge that is not reflective in the price. Big overlay here.  

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