Today's Picks

Major League Baseball picks for SEP 06 2010 :

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

TORONTO –1½ +1.51 over Texas Pinnacle

Note the 1:05 PM EST start. At this particular point in time, this series appears to heavily favor the Jays. Ian Kinsler has returned from the DL, but both Josh Hamilton (knee, bruised ribs) and Elvis Andrus (hamstring tightness) will miss at least a couple of games and perhaps the entire series. The Rangers have lost three in a row and seven of their last 10 games, scoring four runs or less seven times while their pitching staff has allowed almost six runs per game over that same stretch. Toronto is third in AL scoring since the break and will face Tommy Hunter, a fly-ball pitcher that has very little chance of success at this park against this offense. Hunter is 12-2 with a 3.64 ERA but don’t be fooled by that, as he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game. Hunter has an alarming 81% strand rate and a high fly-ball rate of 44%. His xERA is almost two full runs higher than his actual ERA and these extremely fortunate real stats are something that should not be ignored. It’s also worth noting that Hunter has a 7.50 ERA in two starts vs the Jays this year and overall, the Rangers have dropped five straight to the Jays and that’s when they were going good. Ricky Romero is an elite groundball pitcher that has induced a groundball rate of 55%. He’s facing a Ranger squad that has struggled all year vs southpaws and while Romero is showing signs of fading in the second half for the second consecutive year, he’s still throwing well and has a great chance to succeed vs this laboring intruder. Jays have had a heavy dose of Yankees, Rays and Red Sox since the beginning of August and after facing that trio, an eruption of wins and runs could occur in this series beginning here. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.51 (Risking 2 units).

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**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.

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