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Posted on May 15 BEFORE GAME 1

SERIES BET

8:05 PM EST. There is one reason and one reason only why the Blues are still alive and that’s because they enjoyed a significant edge in goal against both Chicago in round one and especially Dallas in round two. Even without Tyler Seguin, Dallas was able to dominate play in a large portion of that series. If Dallas even had adequate goaltending, we’d be talking about them here and not the Blue Notes. Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen combined for a mere 13 stops in Game 7 and gave up 5 goals between them. In Game 5, St. Louis mustered a mere 21 shots on net but won because Lehtonen’s save percentage was .857. Dallas was the better team that lost. In round one, St. Louis was outshot in five of seven games also. Chicago outshot St. Louis 35-18 in Game 1 and 42-20 in Game 4 and lost both those games. In the deciding Game 7, Chicago outshot the Blue Notes 33-26 and lost again. St. Louis did not come close to outplaying Chicago or Dallas instead, Brian Elliott stole two series that the Blues did not deserve to win. St. Louis has surrendered a massive amount of high scoring quality chances through 14 playoff games and while they got away with it in back-to-back seven-game series, they are not likely going to get away with it here.

San Jose just disposed of Los Angeles in five games and Nashville in seven. That second round series against the Preds probably should have been over sooner but Nashville won two games in OT while scoring a late third period goal to tie it in the second OT game and trailing in the third period in the first OT game. The Sharks scored six times on Los Angeles in Game 5 and they scored five times in three of the seven games versus the Preds. The Sharks were able to create great chances against perhaps the two best defensive teams in the NHL. The Blues only advantage here is home ice, as San Jose is the better team by a solid margin.

St. Louis’s win percentage in one goal games (0.658) gave them a much higher luck score than San Jose.This suggests that St. Louis’ point total was inflated, while San Jose’s was somewhat understated. Furthermore, San Jose is absolutely terrifying to opponents when it comes to shot quality, enjoying a league-leading +259 advantage when it comes to high danger scoring chance differential. St. Louis, meanwhile, seems content to let the ice tilt toward goaltender Brian Elliott, racking up a surprisingly poor -66 differential (22nd overall) during the regular season. To sum it up, the Sharks enjoyed a +325 advantage on high danger scoring chances. Unless the Blues’ defensemen and checking forwards tighten ranks quickly, that fact alone is likely to make for a lopsided affair.

It gets worse for the Blues too. The Sharks have been a far more disciplined team, enjoying a +46 penalties drawn vs. taken advantage over their opponents during the regular season while the Blues were -42. That’s a difference of 86 in the Sharks favor suggesting that they are likely going to have many more PP opportunities which works twofold. First, it’ll give the Sharks' deadly power-play more opportunities and secondly, it’ll wear out the Blues. Put simply, the Sharks’ high-flying offense goads opponents into taking penalties, and then their power play often finishes the job.

San Jose had been underachieving for years until Peter DoBoer came along and instilled a winning system that is conducive to winning playoff series. The Sharks will not only frustrate teams with their defensive play, they will run out three great scoring lines and a fourth line that can create, defend the best and give them quality minutes every game. St. Louis will not have the luxury of firing away pucks like they did on Chicago’s leaky defense or Dallas’ weak goaltenders.

St. Louis finished with more points than San Jose and they are also a more recognizable team in the marketplace too. San Jose plays late on the West Coast and few watch them other than gamblers and locals. Those in the know absolutely understand that this series is not priced correctly. The better team by a wide margin is taking back a tag and so we’re not going to miss the opportunity to capitalize on the market’s wrong perception of this series. Thus, we’re going to play San Jose every chance we get, which includes Game 1 and the series for now. 

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