BEST LINES: Pinnacle +140  Bet365 +140 SportsInteraction +135 Betfair +140

Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

OT included. The Penguins are so overpriced while the Hurricanes are so underpriced, which combines to make this a true value play. Pittsburgh is still without Evgeni Malkin and Patric Hornqvist. That leaves a frustrated Sidney Crosby playing with Daniel Winnick and Chris Kuntiz, who hasn’t scored in 23 games. Last game out, Pittsburgh got goals from Steve Downie and Blake Comeau and the second goal was a fluke. The Pens have been held to two goals or fewer in five straight (we’re including the two they scored on Arizona before adding an empty netter) and two goals or fewer in eight of their last nine. The Pens were shutout twice over that span as well. The Penguins are a significant favorite here because the ‘Canes are perceived as a weak team in this market but nothing could be further from the truth.

Wins and losses dictate what happens in the market and in that regard, Carolina’s 26 wins is less than Toronto’s 27. We can’t tell you how grossly absurd that is. All the advanced stats say that the Hurricanes are a top-6 team in the East. From shots on net allowed to special teams’ efficiency to everything else, Carolina ranks high in all of them. In 5-on-5 play, Carolina ranks fifth behind St. Louis, Tampa, Detroit and Los Angeles in shots on net allowed. They rank 4th in the penalty kill and 9th on the PP. The Canes have outshot seven of their last eight opponents and 17 of their past 20 but have just six wins to show for it. And it’s not like they’re outshooting the opposition by a slim margin either. They outshot Chicago 44-25 last game and lost 3-1. They outshot Minnesota, 38-19 and lost 3-1. They outshot the Habs 31-22 and lost 4-0. The list goes on and on of how dominant the ‘Canes have been in a plethora of games this year with nothing to show for it. What we have here is a case of bad luck and poor goaltending and nothing more. Outside of goaltending, the ‘Canes do everything better than the Penguins and it’s not even close. Carolina creates more scoring chances, they spend more time in the opposition’s end and they allow fewer shots than Pittsburgh and they’ve been doing that for the past four months. Don’t be fooled into thinking these ‘Canes are weak and don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on them either. This is a very good team that offers up the most value on today’s board because their win expectation is greater than the Penguins’ win expectation. This line is way off.