Philadelphia @ TORONTO
Philadelphia +144 over TORONTO

BEST LINE: Pinnacle +144

Posted at 10:30 AM EST

OT included. Would it surprise us if the Maple Leafs won this game? Absolutely not but we’re not in the business of making predictions. We’re in the business of finding the best value, betting it and letting the chips fall where they may. Toronto has played some difficult teams at home recently and they were a pooch or pick-em in many of them but the Maple Leafs in no way can be favored in this price range over a team that is as good or better than they are. The standings don’t reflect it but right now Toronto is the most overvalued team in the NHL due to their recent success and their position in the standings but it can’t last. To give you an idea of how troubled this Maple Leafs defense is, consider that they have 248 giveaways in their own end when playing at home. Only the Edmonton Oilers are worse with 257. That’s a sickening number that all Leafs backers should be weary of. By contrast, the Flyers have 125 giveaways while the best team in the NHL in that area is the Blue Notes with 59 giveaways. Toronto has been winning because Jonathan Bernier has been the NHL’s best goalie in terms of making huge saves at precisely the right time. Furthermore, Toronto has buried their scoring chances at a rate that is unprecedented and that, too, can’t last. The Leafs also have 370 blocked shots at home, which is tops in the NHL and is also another disturbing statistic. Blocking that many shots confirms just how much time the Leafs are spending in their own end. When Toronto’s scoring inevitably slows down and Bernier isn’t bailing them out, the Leafs are as troubled and as beatable as Edmonton, Buffalo, Arizona and Carolina. Toronto’s advanced stats are among the worst in the league and while there is nothing that says their luck will end here, there is nothing saying it won’t either. Last season the Avalanche rode their poor advanced stats to a successful but fluky season but it has caught up to them this year and the Maple Leafs are on that exact same path.

Give the Flyers numerous chances and they’ll bury some of them because they are blessed with some of the best sharpshooters in the game. Play a strong defensive game against the Flyers and they become extremely beatable and that’s really the basis for this play. Toronto is not capable of playing a strong defensive game and if Bernier steals another one and beats us, so be it. What we know for sure is that the Flyers will get plenty of opportunities to score because the Maple Leafs are a giveaway machine. The Leafs are a very live pooch because of their great goaltending and timely goals but as the chalk in this price range they are instant fade material and that’s all there is to it.  



Our Pick

Philadelphia +144 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.88)

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New Jersey +127 over Toronto
Vegas +124 over Nashville