Nashville @ MINNESOTA
Nashville +113 over MINNESOTA

BEST LINE: Pinnacle +113

Posted at 10:30 AM EST

OT included. These two teams are very even in so many ways. Both are outstanding defensive teams that rank in the top-5 in several defensive advanced stats. They are also very comparable offensively, as Minnesota has scored just five more goals than the Preds over 30 games. These are two very good Western Conference teams that are both going to the playoffs. That said, when two teams of equal talent and comparable numbers meet up, give us the team with the better goaltending plus a tag and we’ll bite every time.

We keep reiterating that goaltending is the #1 factor that decides the outcome of a very high percentage of games. Without good goaltending you cannot win at this level consistently. You can win games but you cannot string together a bunch of wins in succession and you cannot make a deep run in the playoffs. For the Preds, Pekka Rinne is back to being one of the NHL’s best. The Predators have allowed a league best 59 goals against in 30 games. By contrast, the Darcy Kuemper/Niklas Backstrom duo is among the worst in the league. Between the two, no set of goaltenders has been yanked more. Those two stiffs have allowed a disturbing 78 goals against after facing the fewest shots in the NHL. Kuemper has a save % of .906 playing for the NHL’s best defensive team, which ranks 37th out of 45 qualified goaltenders. Every goaltender in this league will have good games from time to time but Kuemper has posted individual save percentages this year of .722, .600, .000 (against Buffalo when he was yanked after allowing 2 goals on the first 2 shots), .871, .857, .893, .750 and .895. That’s eight out of 21 games he has stunk up the joint. The Wild offer up value as a dog but they are a huge risk as the chalk against a team as good as they are but that has superior goaltending. That superior goaltending edge that the Preds have absolutely gives them a better chance of winning than the Wild and that’s what we call pure value.  

 



Our Pick

Nashville +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)

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Chicago +167 over Ottawa