BEST LINE: Bet365 -3½ +100

Posted at 10:50 AM EST

This one is for all the marbles. At least for now. This is the first meeting of these 8-3 teams with the rematch coming up in two weeks back in Philly. You can lay -3 and some extra juice if you like and while that half point is significant on a key number like 3, if we thought it was going to be that close we would not bet it. Instead we’ll lay 3½ with no juice at BET 365 and here’s why. Games like this often come down to turnovers. If you can figure which team will turn it over more, you can almost guarantee yourself a winner. In that respect, we’re almost guaranteed that Mark Sanchez will turn it over while Tony Romo has been stingy in that department. Sanchez has thrown six picks and lost two fumbles in four games since replacing Nick Foles. Yeah, the Eagles are 3-1 in those games but they defeated Houston, Carolina and Tennessee while getting their rear ends handed to them against the Packers in Green Bay. That was against Aaron Rodgers and the Eagles have also lost to Carson Palmer and Colin Kaepernick. The only “good” QB they defeated this year was Andrew Luck back in Week 3. Philly was extremely fortunate to get that win after Luck threw a pick inside the Eagles 20 with under 5 minutes remaining and Indy leading by 7. Had the Colts logically decided to run the ball and kick a FG, we’d be talking about a 7-4 team. Philadelphia’s defense can’t stop a good QB and Romo qualifies as one of the best.

Romo can move around and extend plays, like Rodgers and Kaepernick. He can make all the throws, like Rodgers and Palmer. He has a ridiculous array of weapons at his disposal, including a running game that is leading the NFL right now. The Eagles' defense has not been able to make good QB’s uncomfortable and with just three days to prepare, it figures to be a long day for them. Dallas has faded into mediocrity so many times over the past 10 years that we almost expect another collapse to happen at any time. However, this year’s edition is not like previous years. Dallas is finding ways to win like they did last week against the Giants and earlier in the year against Seattle and St. Louis. It would have been easy to throw in the towel last week after they were down 24-13 and look ahead to this one but they didn’t. Instead the Cowboys have shown a ton of heart, grit and resiliency and now this well-balanced unit gets a chance to thrive on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. With Romo, the ‘Boys are 6-1 on Thanksgiving Day. In the only loss, Romo threw for 441 yards and three scores in a 38-31 loss to Washington when Robert Griffin III was RG3 and not in his current form. Romo has completed 165 of 248 passes for 2,033 yards with 18 touchdowns and six picks on Thanksgiving and we expect more crooked numbers here.