Baltimore @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI +104 over Baltimore

BEST LINE: Pinnacle +104

Posted Friday at 12:40 PM EST.

Baltimore is 5-2. They have won two in a row and four of its past five games. The Ravens last three wins were by scores of 38-10, 48-17 and 29-7. That’s a combined 115 to 34 and blowout wins often cause an overreaction. String three blowout wins together and that overreaction is even bigger. In other words, Baltimore’s stock is soaring through the roof, which provides us with this sell-high opportunity. It should be noted, however, that Baltimore’s three blowout wins occurred against Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

When the Bengals got off to a 3-0 start, they were making their statement that the road to the Super Bowl was going through Cincinnati. The city even had the parade mapped out. That seems like such a long time ago. In the last three weeks, the Bengals allowed New England to score nine times in a 43-17 blowout, missed a chip-shot field goal to tie Carolina and got shut out by Indianapolis. In other words, Cincinnati’s stock has hit rock bottom in much the same way New England’s did after the Patriots were whacked in Kansas City. If anyone had suggested three weeks ago that Baltimore would be favored in Cincinnati in Week 8, they would have been carted off to an asylum. Yeah, things do change in this league from week to week but this line is a big overreaction to Baltimore’s three blowout wins and Cincinnati’s three ugly losses. Let us now point out that Cincinnati has not lost at Paul Brown Stadium since December of 2012. That’s a streak of 11-0-1 since then and now the Bengals are a dog at home to a Baltimore team that has averaged 14 points a game in Cincinnati since 2009 and that has lost four of the past five here. This is a classic buy-low/sell-high situation and we’re on it.   



Our Pick

CINCINNATI +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)