California @ USC
USC -16½ -110 over California
 BEST LINES: Pinnacle -16½ -112 Bet365 -16½ -110 SportsInteraction -16½ -110 5DIMES -16½ -110

Posted at 9:15 AM EST 

10:30 PM EST. The Trojans are just 4-3 this season so asking them to spot some serious lumber against a Pac-12 rival may appear daunting but it’s not. You see, the Trojans have played one of then toughest schedules in the country and they are about to reap the rewards of doing so. After USC’s 31-27 loss to Utah to run its record to 1-3, rumblings were growing louder about Clay Helton's job security but three victories later over ASU, Colorado and Arizona and the rumblings have quieted down. USC’s three losses were against Alabama, Stanford and Utah. While USC may not win a Pac-12 championship this year, we do like the chemistry on this year's squad. Couple that with the development of quarterback Sam Darnold, and you've got a South division contender that could turn in a 10-3 season. When USC wins, they win big and three of their four victories have been by 38, 21 and 34 points respectively. We’ll likely be adding Cal to that list tomorrow morning.

Sonny Dykes wasn’t even supposed to be back this year. Rumors had him mentally checking out long before Christmas last season but here we are, seven games in and Dykes has the Golden Bears at 4-3, the same record as the Trojans. However, not all 4-3 teams are created equally and now Cal’s bubble is very likely to burst in a big way because they are not going to put up 50 points against the outstanding defense of the Trojans, which is the amount of points that Cal requires to compete. The Golden Bears have a 50-43 victory over Texas, a 51-31 win over Hawaii and a 52-49 win over Oregon last week. In its three losses, Cal has surrendered 45, 51 and 47 points respectively. At some point, and we’re suggesting it’s this week, Cal’s offense is not going to be in rhythm. They’ll make mistakes, they’ll turn the ball over, they’ll start pressing and the score against them will get run up. It happens every single year to this Sonny Dykes coached team, whereas the wheels start to come off. The Golden Bears dodged a serious bullet last week when they hung on to defeat Oregon in double OT after blowing a big lead. They wanted that game desperately and now they have to deal with the emotional letdown afterward. The big lumber here may look very appealing, especially with Cal’s backdoor cover ability but don’t be fooled into grabbing the points. Cal cannot stop USC in any way, shape or form and they are not going to be able to score at will like they did against some weak defenses. The Bears offense creates decent production, but Cal never wins the battle of mistakes against superior competition and Sonny Sykes rarely out-coaches anyone. It's now time to drop the hammer on the Bears. USC in a route is the call.  

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Our Pick

USC -16½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)