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Posted at 2:05 PM EST

#4 West Virginia +155 over #1 Gonzaga

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – Sweet 16 - West Region

Thursday, March 23rd, 2017 – SAP Center – San Jose, CA

7:39 PM EST On paper, this Gonzaga team is absolutely incredible. At least that’s what all the experts say. On the court, we suppose they are pretty decent as well, having only lost one game. The numbers like the Zags too. The Bulldogs are second in the entire nation in offensive rating, ninth in rebounding percentage, second in effective field goal percentage, first in defensive rating, and first in opponent FG%. They somehow don't really have a weakness, or at least that’s what the experts say. What the experts don’t say is that the Zags played teams like Portland, Pepperdine and Pacific all season long. They did not have to break a sweat this entire season. When they were pushed by an 11-point dog in Northwestern in the second round, only a horrible call by the refs saved the Zags from being eliminated. That one well-documented weak call turned a three-point lead into a seven-point lead in the blink of an eye and it also sucked the wind out of the building. There is little doubt that if the refs called “basket interference”, Northwestern would’ve ridden that huge wave of momentum to victory. Yeah, the Zags have good players and yeah, they’re big and can rebound and yeah, they can win this game. However, there is a price to pay for playing cupcakes all year and the Zags almost paid their dues last weekend. They’ll now take a massive step up in class when facing these Mountaineers.

While the Zags were playing the Pacific’s and Pepperdine’s of the world, West Virginia was playing teams like Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State and TCU not once but twice. The Mountaineers defeated Kansas once and went to OT with them the second time before losing by four. They also have a 13-point win over Iowa State, a 21-point win over Baylor and a 17-point win over Oklahoma State. Gonzaga beat Santa Clara by 30. So, what we have here is a bunch of skewed numbers against a bunch of legit numbers. Gonzaga’s stellar defensive numbers came against the 123rd ranked schedule while WVU’s was against the sixth toughest schedule in the country. West Virginia owns the fifth-ranked defense and this was attained while taking on the 36th ranked schedule in terms of offensive strength. Let’s not also forget that West Virginia has the deeper bench and they can rotate personnel that can play a variety of roles while the Zags are more prone to get gassed against this rugged bunch. The Mountaineers simply have it all and they can score points too, as they are #1 in the tournament thus far in three-point %. West Virginia is incredible on the defensive end and they excel in causing turnovers. The Mountaineers cause a turnover on 24.7% of possessions, just an absurd number and one that leads the country.

In last year’s Sweet 16, there were 15 major-conference teams and Gonzaga. This year, there are 15 major-conference teams and Gonzaga. Last year, the Zags were knocked out the Sweet 16 by Syracuse. Rarely do the Zags get by the round of 32, let alone the round of 16 and that’s because they are not battle tested and never are. It’s the same story every year for the Zags. They come in with a high seed and with expectations through the roof and every year they fall to a battle-tested and talented group. West Virginia is all of the above and more and offer up such great value here to win outright that it is the way we’re going to have to play it. Mountaineers outright get the call.   

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