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Posted at 2:05 PM EST

#4 Purdue +5 over #1 KANSAS

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – Sweet Sixteen - Midwest Region

Sprint Center – Kansas City, MO

9:39 PM ET Some have heralded the Jayhawks as perhaps the best team in America and it’s a viable argument to be sure. Kansas has absolutely dominated opponents in the first two rounds of competition. While this was expected against a team like UC Davis, the Rock Chalks kicked it up a notch when they spanked Michigan State in the Second Round on Sunday. KU routed the Spartans by 20 despite being favored by just 7½-points. Kansas averaged 95 points in the first two rounds, which was easily the most in the tournament field. This game is also in Kansas. We’re in the business of finding inefficiencies or value in the point-spread. There is no question that a premium must be paid to back the Jayhawks here and to recap, it’s because they’re in their own backyard, they’ve whacked two teams including a marquee brand in the Spartans, they’re a #1 seed and they’re putting up massive points. The Jayhawks spotting nominal points is deceptively friendly. As we covered in previous podcasts, the Spartans may have been the weakest Power Conference team in this tournament and more or less earned an invitation by their pedigree more than their actual performance portfolio this year. The same cannot be said for the Boilermakers.

Purdue came into this tournament as the highest ranked team in the Big Ten and so far they have lived up to the billing. The Boilermakers are 2-0 ATS and have a far more impressive body of work than the Jayhawks to bolster their tournament credentials. Though Purdue defeated #13 Vermont handily, many thought Purdue would struggle to win, let alone cover against the Catamounts who entered with the 11th ranked scoring defense in America, an undefeated run to the America East crown and a 21-game winning streak. Purdue silenced those critics with a 10-point win but it probably should have been closer to a 17-point win after a series of bizarre incidents in the final minute made that score a lot more flattering to the Catamounts.

Purdue would subsequently triumph over the Big 12 Champion, #4 seed Iowa State. In both games, the Boilermakers absolutely bullied both opponents on the boards. That stingy play aligns with Purdue’s strategy to bolster a presence in the paint and a desire to shut down second chances. The Boilermakers are ranked 22nd nationally in doing so, while the Rock Chalks sit at 134th nationally in terms of defensive rebounding. The Jayhawks weakness is no inside presence. The way that Purdue took down a monster in Iowa State is not being talked about much. Not only did the Boilermakers open up a near 20-poiint lead, they did so in a hostile environment, just like the one they’ll play in here. Furthermore, when the Cyclones (perhaps the best shooting team in America) fought all the way back and took a two-point lead late in the game, the Boilermakers took a time out and scored the next seven points to secure the deal. That’s not being talked about much either but it was a significant moment for this program. You see, the Boilermakers have been knocked out in the first round the previous two seasons. The resiliency they displayed against the Cyclones shows they have matured and are now over that hump. Sky is now the limit.

The Boilermakers have it all. They are an excellent passing, shooting and rebounding team and have the production and presence of Caleb Swanigan. We’ve already heard some analysts question whether or not the Boilermakers can keep pace with the Jayhawks or their guards so allow us to put that to rest. Purdue just beat a guard heavy team in Iowa State and they did so in impressive fashion. We have no idea who is going to win this game but we are 100% sure where the value lies and thus, the Boilermakers are the right way to go.      

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