Posted at 2:00 PM EST

9:00 PM EST. Make no mistake about the Delta Devils of Mississippi Valley State, as they could easily be the poster boy for dregs if there was ever a team to embody the term. However, what we have here is a situation for us to snag some inflated points by virtue of a Texas Southern team that has been seen in bracketologists’s brackets for several weeks now. Though the Tigers sit just one game over .500 at 10-9, they are the current table-topper in the SWAC standings. That can be chalked up to TSU currently riding a six-game winning streak after starting off 4-9 and devouring menial SWAC outfits in the process.

Both Mississippi Valley State and Texas Southern sit in the top-five in non-conference strength of schedule. However, there are two huge differences worth noting. First, the Tigers are the 8th luckiest team in the country whilst the Delta Devils sit at 161st according to Ken Pom’s luck quotient. The theory is that games decided by four points or less are either lucky victories or unlucky losses because of missed free throws, bounces off the rim and referee calls. In other words, these types of games are a 50/50 shot so a team that wins a high majority of them is lucky while a team that loses a high majority is unlucky. 

Very easily, the Tigers could be owners of a losing record and perhaps playing catch-up in the SWAC race had a few baskets or calls not gone their way. Additionally, their current sparkling six-game winning streak could have been nothing more than a few wins and a few losses, which again would likely not generate any reaction. Hypothetically, had the Tigers been not so fortunate, there may have been no manifestation of this offering as a whole or the price would certainly be a lot different.  

Texas Southern stands at 8-9 on the road this season while MVSU has played just three home games and are 1-2 when hosting. However, both losses at home were by five points or less. Though the Delta Devils have an abysmal 2-17 record, they are 2-4 in conference play and could easily be 4-2. At the end of the day, we are not often advocates of playing road chalk and laying heavy lumber but that’s what this .500 team is asking of us here and it is almost certain it’s because of its current stature in its conference and tournament prognostication as a whole. The favorite here is 6-0 in the conference but its road victories have been by 2, 8, 5, and 7 points respectively and now they’re being asked to spot many more points than its largest road win. We must bite.   

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