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Thursday, March 26, 2015

West Region Sweet Sixteen – Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA

Posted Thursday at 11:00 AM EST.

10:17 PM EST. We stress the importance of playing on value and the Xavier Musketeers have proven to be a quality play throughout this entire year and into the tournament. The Musketeers are 2-0 against the spread in this event and have been a clear undervalued favorite against both Mississippi and Georgia State. Now the dynamic has shifted, as Xavier enters as a significant dog against the #1 seed, Arizona.

Sure, the Wildcats have been impressive and have not been in a relatively close game since they played UCLA on March 13 in Pac-12 play. We’ll give the ‘Cats their just due and profess they are quite the talented bunch. However, they are playing a different opponent in Xavier. This Xavier team knows how to win and defy expectation. Arizona is a far more prolific opponent, but the Musketeers are being offered a generous amount of points. We have seen that heavy favorites and even top seeds fall in unexpected circumstances to overlooked opposition and we cannot sleep on Xavier. This is the same Xavier team that has wins over Georgetown, Butler and Cincinnati. With respect, none of these teams may sport the accolades that Arizona has but they are all formidable opponents. Both Butler and Cincinnati won their second round fixtures, despite being underdogs in those respective contests. Cinci also played tough against Kentucky for 25 minutes. Xavier knows how to compete to the final buzzer and they’re always well prepped. They won’t be intimidated against any team in any setting because this isn’t their first rodeo. The Musketeers seem to reach this stage every year. The Wildcats have blown out five of their last six opponents with four of those games being by 19 points or more. Arizona has tremendous upside with their championship-caliber defense but their string of blowout wins, which includes their first two games of this event means you are paying a premium to wager on them here and that’s where we step in and scoop up that value.