BEST LINES: Pinnacle -3½ -107 5DIMES -3½ -110 SportsInteraction -3½ -110 Bet365 -3½ -115

Posted Friday at 12:35 PM EST.   

Situational betting is a major part of our criterion for picking games and we trust we found a pretty sweet spot here for the Hornets. For one, Charlotte is back to playing at a high level after a rough stretch and have now won two straight and five of its past seven games. The Hornets have also won 17 of 25 games at home and they’re coming off a pretty decent win at home against the Cavs.

This wager, however, is all about fading the Heat. Miami will play the final game of a three game trip here after games in Houston and Dallas. They split that pair and after this one the Heat will return home for a game against the Clip Joint at 2:00 PM EST on Super Bowl Sunday. The Heat are obviously very aware that this game precedes the Super Bowl and is therefore going to draw a huge viewing audience. It’s a featured game on ABC and it’ll be watched by millions. Miami has pulled their fair share of no-shows already this year. We have seen the Heat come up with some disastrous outings this year on more than a few occasions when their intensity levels were just not there. In a recent four-game stretch from January 17 to January 22, Miami lost in OKC by 25 points, at home to Milwaukee by 12, in Washington by 19 and in Toronto by 20. They had a similar stretch in December when they lost three in a row all by double digits. On January 13, Miami went into L.A. and got buried by the Clip Joint 104-90. They now get them at home in a revenge spot on Super Bowl Sunday with potentially one of the biggest viewing audiences of the year. To us, this looks like one of those typical Miami no-shows.  

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.