Posted Saturday at 9:20 AM EST. 

Saturday. July 30 -  Bantamweight 3 rounds - Phillips Arena - Atlanta, Georgia - PPV

10:45 PM EST. This line opened up without a clear favorite, and with the heavy money coming in on Erik Perez, the lean on Rivera has become a must play. This movement is all based on perception and recent results and while the line opened up as a coin flip, the line now indicates that Perez has a much better chance than Rivera and that is simply not the case.

Perez opened up his UFC account with three consecutive wins and has since alternated loss/win over his past four, amassing a 5-2 UFC record. The 26-year-old striker showcased his potential is his first fight, dominating a first round submission win over John Albert in 2012. John Albert is so insignificant that he doesn't even have a photo on UFC.com, and they have had over four years to add one. Fights two and three resulted in two first round TKO wins for Perez over Ken Stone and Bryan Bloodworth. These two fighters haven't fought in the UFC at all since 2012, and are clearly not good enough to be given another chance following their losses to Perez. Now that those are out of the way, the 5-2 record is actually 2-2 after the dissection. Perez has collected two wins over mediocre talent in the past 2½-years and has demonstrated decent enough abilities to stay employed, and maybe with a couple wins over greater talent, he could emerge into a ranked fighter one day. However, this pick is much more about the perception of “Cisco” Rivera than it is about Perez.

Francisco Rivera enters this fight in a funk, losing four of his last five fights. While Perez has been taking on mediocre talent and fellow prospects getting his feet wet, Rivera has been taking on elite competition. Over the past two years, Rivera has done battle with Bantam weight contender Urijah Faber, Bantam weight contender Jon Lineker, and fellow flyweight veteran Brad Pickett. All three of those fights turned into losses for Rivera, but he was completely robbed in his fight against Pickett, losing a split decision to the judges, in a bout that saw him land 30 more significant strikes. The third round of that fight was the last image we have of Rivera, which saw Pickett lying on Rivera and staying just busy enough not to have the fight stood up, where Rivera most likely would have completed his striking oriented decision victory. Losing to Faber and Lineker is nothing to be ashamed about for Rivera, as it is clear that he does not belong in the same class as those two. However, Perez is nowhere near that level of competition. Sandwiched in the smattering of losing is Rivera's lone victory in the past two years, which was a showcase of his one-punch power, earning a TKO win over Alex Caceres. Caceres is much further along in his journey than Perez is and can boast a much more impressive resume as well.

This fight has the potential to be the fight of the night, and in a flyweight, in a striker vs. striker matchup, expect firework flurries early and often. While the younger Perez should have more in the tank as the fight enters round three, Rivera packs much more power in his fists, and the fight may either have already been determined by Round 3 before it goes to the score cards or Rivera may have ended it with one punch. The general perception is that Perez is a blue chip prospect, much younger, and coming off of a win, where Rivera is eight years older, mired in a 1-4 funk, and is at the tail end of his career. Tough to argue that the career paths are heading in opposite directions but Perez is taking a massive leap up in competition here and Rivera will be very motivated after the judge snub from his last fight. When this fight opened up around a pick’em, perhaps it was a pass in terms of betting it but now that the line has shifted so aggressively, this is a play we must make based on the great gift of value.

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