Atlanta @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO -1½ +165 over Atlanta

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +165 Bet365 -1½ +165 SportsInteraction -1½ +160 5DIMES -1½ +165

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

10:05 PM EST. Bartolo Colon has not pitched since June 6th and we doubt he was running around the track or lifting weights during his brief but significant hiatus. A strained left oblique landed him on the DL and much to our delight he’s been activated for this start. For years, Colon’s ERA somehow showed continued life but we kept preaching that his xERA tells a different story. Something had to give and it finally did, as there are momentous signs of erosion all over the place. Colon’s ERA is no longer his friend. He’s sporting a 7.78/6.22 ERA/xERA split. His swing and miss rate is down to 4%. In 12 starts, he has two wins and his fastball, his primary/only weapon averages out at 86 MPH. When he finally retires, he can entertain friends with tall tales of being on that team with Julio Franco and Ricky Henderson. His presence on the mound is more of a freak/side show than it is serious and we’re not going to miss an opportunity to fade him at prices like this even if it means spotting 1½-runs with the home side.

We told you about Luis Perdomo very early last year but his potential and upside have barely been noticed in this market. Perdomo is a Rule 5 success story from last year and may be one of the most undervalued starters in the game. He managed to post a 4.02 xERA in 146.2 innings last season and this year his xERA is even lower at 3.68.  That’s really good for someone who’d never pitched above A-ball prior to last year! Perdomo’s heavy sinker drives his league best 65% groundball rate. He has nine pure quality starts in 13 games this season, which is a top-10 mark in MLB. Perdomo has sacrificed strikeouts for groundballs but he still gets his fair share of K’s when needed. He has a decent BB/K split of 28/61 in 73 innings. Digging deeper, nearly all of his problems have been inflicted by LH bats but righties have had no shot against him. This is a pitcher to put on your watch list and for DFS players, he can be played every time he starts because his potential for a gem is always present. Perdomo v Colon is a mismatch and we’ll play it accordingly.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

SAN DIEGO -1½ +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)

Arizona -101 over St. Louis