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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Yesterday we cited pitchers coming off layoffs have been hit extremely hard this year and we find another one here in Carlos Rodon. Rodon has recovered from left biceps bursitis and has been activated from the 60-day disabled list for this start. The 24-year-old lefty makes his season debut here after tossing 17 innings in the minors after missing nearly three months. Over a four-start rehab at Triple-A Charlotte, Rodon gave up 21 hits and 20 earned runs while striking out 17 and walking nine in 17 innings. He also went 0-4 in those four starts. Rodon has anchor upside but he has to round into form again and it’s not going to happen overnight. Rodon's prospect pedigree—he ranked 17th in 2015’s top 100 prospects and his ability to miss bats provides long-term upside but there's still plenty of work to do. Aside from having to recover from a long layoff, his control sub-indicators (first-pitch strike rate and Ball%) and vanilla xERA warn against a step up in 2017. Remember one of our oldest adages: "Never pay for a level of performance a player has not previously achieved." It rings especially true for Rodon and so we’ll wait for a better opportunity to back him. This is now a great opportunity to fade him.

Masahiro Tanaka is one of just 20 starters in MLB who owns an xERA of under 3.68 in both home and road starts. Yet he has a 5.88 ERA at home and a 6.70 ERA on the road. At home, he has been victimized by a 29% hr/f, the highest home-park hr/f in the AL. He has also been hurt by a 22% hr/f away from home, in addition to an inflated 37% hit rate. Don’t be fooled by Tanaka’s surface stats because frankly, he’s never been better than he is right now. Tanaka has 85 K’s in 85 innings while issuing just 20 walks. His swinging strike rate of 15% is outstanding and his 18% swing and miss rate over his last five starts is tops in the league over any five-game span. Throw in an elite groundball rate and an elite line-drive rate and it all adds up to some major regression coming in Tanaka’s actual ERA. That regression very likely starts here. Invest.

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