Pittsburgh @ MIAMI
Pittsburgh +117 over MIAMI

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +117 Bet365 +105 SportsInteraction +120 WilliamHill +110

Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

1:10 PM EST. The Pirates have taken the first two games of this series while outscoring the Marlins 16-2. Once again, the Pirates are being offered a price with the better pitcher and so once again, we’ll bite. Tom Koehler (RHP) is a 31-year old journeyman that showed glimpses of improving but he’ll never be anything more than an average innings eater. In four starts this season, Koehler has a BB/K split of 10/17 in 21 innings. While his strikeout rate is decent, the Pirates have struck out the fewest times in the NL while ranking 4th in the NL in most walks taken so this is a disciplined team at the dish. Credited with a "quality start" in 53 of 96 games started over the past three seasons, Koehler’s skills say he's never come close to being a league-average pitcher. In fact, since 2014, ERA/xERA/WHIP have all been on a steady climb. Pitching for the laboring offense of Miami and spotting a tag, we’ll pass.

Chad Kuhl (RHP) is 1-2 in two starts with an unsightly 6.63 ERA so his stock is low. Kuhl does not have a sexy prospect pedigree either and his rookie results with the Pirates in 2016 were more mediocre than intriguing (4.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. However, Kuhl had a great run in September that was hidden by a terrible 39% hit rate and 62% strand rate. His ability to keep the ball on the ground and post a solid command ratio makes him a decent target in certain spots when taking back a price. Kuhl has a BB/K split of 11/15 in just 19 innings this year but his 13% swing and miss rate and 65% first-pitch strike rate says that BB/K ratio is in line for a serious correction to the good, which makes he and the Pirates a rock soild option here with value.  

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)

Kansas City +108 over Toronto
Seattle -1½ +150 over Texas