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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

8:05 PM EST. The Cubbies win expectation in this market is so high that when you bet on them, rarely will you be getting a fair price, which is certainly the case here. The Cubs are not rolling over folks like they were last year and come into this game with a 13-10 record. Kyle Hendricks’ (RHP) stock is also high given his breakout 2016 campaign but the very early signs in 2017 suggest that he could be in store for bigger regression than you might expect. His skills so far have been pretty bad with 6.3 K’s/9 3.9 BB’s/9 and a 50% groundball rate. However, what sticks out to us is that he's missing bats at a very low 6% swing and miss rate. That’s significant here because Boston has struck out the fewest times in the major leagues so they will be putting the ball in play here and likely cashing in some runs. For all you fantasy players out there, it’s still early but the window to sell Hendricks at his peak could be quickly closing.

By contrast, the Cubbies swing and miss often. They have struck out 212 times thus far, which is the sixth highest mark in the game. That bodes well here for Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), who has struck out 22 batters in 17 frames with a 17% swing and miss rate. That elite K-rate carries over from last September in which Rodriguez had 29 K’s in his final 17 innings. All told, he gives up less than a hit per inning and now he’s mowing 'em down too. Rodriguez’s groundball/fly-ball split of 34%/43% is the last piece of this puzzle that needs improvement and if that comes around, this is a Cy Young candidate. The temperature in Boston tonight is expected to be around 48° (9 Celsius) so those fly-balls should be of little concern. We get the Red Sox/Rodriguez combo at home at a bargain price because it’s the Cubs.  

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