N.Y. Mets @ ST. LOUIS
N.Y. Mets +107 over ST. LOUIS
 BEST LINES: Pinnacle +107 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +105

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. 

8:15 PM EST. Jacob deGrom is a true ace in every sense of the word. deGrom has a BB/K split of 30/134 in 138 innings. He was hit hard in his last start but so what, as nobody is immune to the occasional blowup. At the end of the day, when we can get deGrom plus a tag, we are usually going to grab it and that is certainly the case here.

Carlos Martinez entered 2016 with his stock high. His 3.01 ERA at age 23 in 2015 was impressive, but he was shut down with a shoulder strain late in the season. Martinez has managed to stay healthy in 2016 with another sub-3.25 ERA but a check under the hood reveals things aren’t as rosy as they appear. A drop in Ks may soon hurt Martinez. Martinez's greatest asset is an elite groundball rate. His sinker (69% GB%; 26% usage) and change-up (70%; 18%) should keep the ball in the yard and ERA in check. The drop in Ks is concerning, however, as his swing and miss stuff continues to head south. Martinez's xERA is over a half-run higher than his surface ERA, which typically indicates a correction is looming—this could happen if his hit rate tends back towards league average. With two years of impressive results this early in his career, Martinez might look like a premier investment on the surface. But the drop in K’s when paired with mediocre control quickly makes this look like an average skill set. Martinez's elite groundball rate and overall record may make him an attractive bet at home but there are some major bumps in the road ahead.

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Our Pick

N.Y. Mets +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110