Posted at 11:20 AM EST. 

9:10 PM EST. Scott Kazmir is 9-3 after 20 starts to go along with 117 K’s in 110 innings. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that Scott Kazmir is on the verge of some blowupsbecause he gets progressively worse after the first time through the order. He has a xERA of 4.88 the second time through and a 5.21 the third time through. Kazmir’s 41%/21%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is exactly the type of profile that gets blown up from time to time because of the number of fly-balls surrendered. That puts him at the mercy of hr/f %. Kazmir’s hr/f rate is 15%, which in turn makes Kazmir’s profile a very risky one to be spotting a price like this with. Kazmir has been saved by a friendly strand rate of 79% over his past six starts. Because we can't bet on that happening again, neither can we expect anything near a 3-ERA again over his next six starts. Rising xERA trend combined with a BIG second half skills erosion last year put even a 4.00 ERA at risk. He'll struggle to return a profit the rest of the way. With a takeback like this, we’re more than willing to gamble that Kazmir isn’t as sharp today.

Braden Shipley debuted last week against the Brewers in Milwaukee and his pitching line looks pretty ugly. Shipley walked four and struck out four in 5.1 innings after allowing six runs. He left with an ERA of 10.80 but it’s not as bad as it seems. Five of the six runs came via the home-run. Shipley gave up solo shots in the first and third innings, but managed to battle his way into the bottom of the sixth with the score tied 3-3. A three-run shot in the sixth ended his night but that was in Milwaukee and four of the eight hits he surrendered were either a seeing eye-single or bloop single. Results notwithstanding, Shipley was actually quite impressive with his poise, mound presence and pitch selection. He’s a former first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has three average to above average offerings. His sinking 91-96 mph fastball looked good versus the Brewers. Shipley works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. We never put a lot of weight on one outing but this market is and that’s a mistake. Shipley may indeed get whacked again but this kid is high on our radar for the future because we love his arsenal and quiet confidence. He’s going to be a good one but nobody knows it yet. We’re investing now. 

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