Tampa Bay @ BALTIMORE
Tampa Bay (5 inns) +115
 BEST LINES: Pinnacle +115 Bet365 +105 SportsInteraction +115 5DIMES +113

Posted at 10:25 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Matt Moore has a 4.90 ERA after 82 innings this year. However, he’s also shown flashes of brilliance, as he continues to recover from TJS. Now a little better than two years removed from said operation, Moore may be just about ready to fulfill his top-prospect pedigree. Over his last two starts, Moore has allowed just two runs on eight hits and struck out 15 in 13 innings. He now has 29 K’s over his last 32 innings and 78 on the year in 83 frames. A high 32% hit rate has done a fair amount of damage to Moore’s actual ERA but there is no question as to who the better starter is here. We are betting that Moore is better than Yovani Gallardo in the first five frames.

It’s not rocket science. The equation here is as simple as can be. Gallardo is either going to get lucky or he’s not. His pitches will get hit and they’ll get hit hard and it’s all a matter of where those hard hit balls land. Gallardo’s last start against Toronto landed on the side of luck, as he allowed just two runs in five innings before he was mercilessly yanked. On a normal day, Gallardo would have lasted about three innings after giving up about eight runs. In that start against Toronto, Gallardo walked four batters and his hard hit ball percentage was 74%. League average per game is 28%. He had traffic every inning. In 23 innings this year, Gallardo has 11 walks, 14 K’s, a 6% swing and miss rate, a 38%/41% groundball/fly-ball split, a 1.70 WHIP and a xERA of 6.77. Some idiot in the Orioles organization figured paying this stiff 8.7M per year was a sound decision. We told you last year that Gallardo was no good anymore. Because he’s being paid so much, he’ll take the ball every five days and that is going to provide us with many more outstanding opportunities. The strategy therefore is as simple as the equation. Fade Gallardo.     

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Our Pick

Tampa Bay (5 inns) +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

Toronto +109 over Tampa Bay
Milwaukee -101 over N.Y. Mets
N.Y. Yankees +105 over Houston
Boston +128 over Seattle
San Francisco +133 over San Diego