Baltimore @ HOUSTON
Baltimore +121 over HOUSTON

 BEST LINES: Pinnacle +121 Bet365 +120 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +122

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

8:05 PM EST. Last week we profiled Baltimore’s starter Tyler Wilson and backed him in an afternoon game against the Mariners. Wilson and the Orioles lost that game but that’s not going to deter us from coming back on this kid here. Losing for young starters is not a bad thing. They can get into some bad habits by constantly allowing few runs in every start but getting hit hard forces them to work harder to improve. Tyler has a high baseball IQ and it’s not like he was torched. The Mariners scored five runs on just six hits in six innings so Wilson’s pitching line is a little misleading. We like Wilson a lot so we’ll run that same profile….

The Orioles come cheap today because not many people have heard of Tyler Wilson. A quick look at Wilson’s profile will reveal a pitcher with just five starts and very average numbers. Wilson is also 26-years-old and has spent the previous four years in the minor league system. A deeper look into his past performances and under the hood stats suggests this kid has the goods to become great. Watch this kid pitch against three pretty good hitters in Lorenzo Cain, Byung Hung Park and Jose Abreu:

Tyler Wilson K's Lorenzo Cain from Michael Tamburri on Vimeo.

Tyler Wilson K's Byung-Ho Park from Michael Tamburri on Vimeo.

Tyler Wilson K's Jose Abreu from Michael Tamburri on Vimeo.

Houston is very much like the Blue Jays in that they have several players coming off career years. A closer look reveals a team with weak batting numbers and average pitchers with Collin McHugh being among them. McHugh climbed from the scrap heap to become a front-line MLB starter, which begs the next logical question: is McHugh a two-year-wonder, or can he repeat?  Expect some regression, perhaps closer to the numbers he posted over three seasons in Triple-A. Line-drives are still an issue for McHugh. McHugh has ditched his ineffective sinker in exchange for more curveballs, which has produced whiffs at a higher rate (16% vs 2% for the sinker).

However, teams now have a "book" on McHugh, so he'll need to continue to make adjustments in order to sustain his last two year level. His xERA (4.39) says he's not a 5.13 ERA pitcher but it also says he’s about average. Last year he pitched for a team that was rolling all year and this year he’s pitching for a team that is having trouble finding victories. Big difference there, which provides us with this great opportunity to fade McHugh and buy low on Wilson. 

Also note: Games may be added or subtracted by 6:00 PM or thereabouts, as we monitor lines looking for value all day.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.



Our Pick

Baltimore +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110